More Bonds

[shemp]

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<u>Let's recap:</u>
1. I noted the surge after age 35.
2. You disputed saying it was result of moving fences in at home park during age 35 season

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Are you saying you wrote the original article?

In any case, your summary is false. I entered the fray questioning why the initial article did not mention the parks-- I think this is an important component of this comparison.


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3. I threw out Home numbers, and noted the same surge in ROAD numbers.

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Actually, no, your summary is inaccurate again.

You provided numbers (not home/road splits) up to the age of 34 and after 35 and made the observation that his first three years in Atlanta didn't show any increases -- without acknowledging the change in the park at the age of 35. Your point, at the time, was, "Well, it wasn't the park, because he'd been there for 3 years." -- Well, the park changed.

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4. You disputed saying the disappearance of old, big parks at beginning of age 37 season has effect on results.

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5. I threw out all road numbers from the new stadiums, and yet again, we note the same surge in ROAD numbers in the big, old parks you specifically cited.


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You are correct on these last two (at least the part you addressed, specifically, on the three parks I mentioned). Thank you for setting me straight, there.

I'm still curious if you'd show the numbers for before and after 35 in Atlanta(at home)?


My point is (and I'm kinda losing sight of it in the details) that I think Bonds' late career surge, which I found enormously entertaining, is unprecedented and astonishing. I'm not saying that no other player had a surge late in their career. Aaron's numbers, specifically, dramatic though they may be, are not as dramatic, and less so when one considers the change in Atlanta versus Barry going to AT&amp;T. Barry is/was amazing/spectacular/unreal-- saying as much isn't with the agenda of diminishing his accomplishments.

And I'll make the additional point, that the subtext here that "Barry just did what Hank did surge wise, and Hank did it on performance enhancing drugs, and this information is being suppressed" angle is inaccurate and unimpressive casuistry.

But ultimately I don't care that Aaron took greenies-- first illegal for '70 or 71-- and I hope Barry skates even if he did take PEDs.

[RedBean]

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You are correct on these last two (at least the part you addressed, specifically, on the three parks I mentioned). Thank you for setting me straight, there.


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No sweat.

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I'm still curious if you'd show the numbers for before and after 35 in Atlanta(at home)?


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Like all his numbers, they got better. Monstrously better at home after the fences were pulled in, and they declined again after they pushed them back out....albeit Hank was as nimble as Fred Sanford by that time.

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Aaron's numbers, specifically, dramatic though they may be, are not as dramatic, and less so when one considers the change in Atlanta versus Barry going to AT&amp;T.

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Have you considered factors aside from steroids and parks that may have had an affect on Bonds' surge, much the same way as those 10 feet in Fulton County had a demonstrative effect on Hank?

They are difficult to quantify, but they exist. And they are most likely made with maple.

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"Barry just did what Hank did surge wise, and Hank did it on performance enhancing drugs, and this information is being suppressed" angle is inaccurate and unimpressive casuistry.


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That's not my angle. That seems to be your assumption of my angle.

I'm citing statistics of record, and facts Hank admitted. I make no judgments and draw no conclusions.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

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Hank clearly wasn't the only one who experienced a dramatic increase in his home run rate post 1968, on the road, away, whatever.

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As a whole, offense was drastically up, everyone knows that.

If you'd really like, we can break it down by age across the board, and what you'll see is that after the mound was lowered, homeruns by the young bucks did most indeed go up......but the guys aged around 35 and older like Mays, Banks, Clemente, they declined as "expected".

Except for one of them.

Shortening the mound 5 inches DOES boost offense, but it DOESN'T give a guy standing 60 feet away a power surge after age 35, when everyone else around the league at the comparable age continues to decline.

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I don't doubt that if you take all 34 YO's from 1968, and compare those years to 1969, Aaron comes out looking pretty good. But how many 35 YO's were even playing back then? Weren't careers much shorter? ie the sample size becomes so small that it's probably not worth comparing.

Anyways, my general point is that while Aarons post 35 burst is real, it's bit disingenuous to mention this w/o mentioning that At Bats/HR for the league in general went through massive changes over this time period.

here at the 1968 leaders:

At Bats per Home Run

McCovey-SFG 14.5
Allen-PHI 15.8
Banks-CHC 17.2
Stargell-PIT **18.1
Wynn-HOU 20.8

and 1969


McCovey-SFG 10.9
Aaron-ATL 12.4
Allen-PHI 13.7
Wynn-HOU 15
May-CIN 16

[FireStorm]

Worst thread ever, this thread is essentially a nightmare. We have one guy who wants to annoint Bonds a saint and dispute a change in body structure that would be clear to a blind, retarded 5 year old. Are you honestly disputing Barry's change in appearance because you happen to be able to quote a few hat size measurements? For that matter, can you please explain to us what the hell Bruce Bochy has to do with anything? He has a big dome, what's the goddamn relevance? Barry Bonds is a cheat who became a better player by use of performance enhancing drugs, and he's a bad teammate and a disgusting ambassador for the game. Do we really need a thread that is bending over backward to dispute this?

[pepper123]

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Have you considered factors aside from steroids and parks that may have had an affect on Bonds' surge, much the same way as those 10 feet in Fulton County had a demonstrative effect on Hank?

They are difficult to quantify, but they exist. And they are most likely made with maple.

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So you're saying Bonds uses performance enhancing syrup?

[RedBean]

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Anyways, my general point is that while Aarons post 35 burst is real, it's bit disingenuous to mention this w/o mentioning that At Bats/HR for the league in general went through massive changes over this time period.

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Would you agree it's likewise a bit disingenuous to isolate Bonds late career surge as "evidence" w/o mentioning that HR's are up across the board during the same period (1999-2007 )as compared to the preceding era he is measured by his earlier stats (1986-1998).

If we take Hank's surge in context, then one should only hope we do the same with Barry's.

But up to this point, it's been taking one in context, and the other out of context.

[RedBean]

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Worst thread ever, this thread is essentially a nightmare. We have one guy who wants to annoint Bonds a saint and dispute a change in body structure that would be clear to a blind, retarded 5 year old.


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Go ahead man, let it out. Let all the anger out.

Shout it out to soothe the pain and quench the envy.

Meanwhile, we're still 761 and counting, and I'm sorry if it kills you. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Are you honestly disputing Barry's change in appearance because you happen to be able to quote a few hat size measurements?


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No, I am disputing your assertion that "his head growed three full sizes", and I disputed it with these things we like to call documented facts.

That was when you started ranting and raving about how you're not an expert and the hat size you cited earlier now doesn't matter anymore, but it kind of does when you want it to, but then it doesn't again.

I'm trying my best to keep up here, but your all over the place. Be patient with me.

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Do we really need a thread that is bending over backward to dispute this?

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I think it's you feeling the need. Go ahead though man, we're all friends here. Let the anger out, don't hold it all in. I know how much it can anger someone that another person has the ability to hit a ball really far playing a child's game.

[Wu36]

dear god redbean is raping this thread.

[Kneel B4 Zod]

sure, but it's all relative.

Bonds post 35 put together the best years of his career, the best hitting years of anyone, ever. (in terms of all time adjusted .eqa)

Aaron post 35 went through a period of 'maintenance'/decline, despite what the HR totals say.

so it's not a really fair comparison to say "they both went on unprecedented upswings".

Bonds at 39 did things nobody had ever did, Aaron at 39 was like Arod today. (which is still amazing, but not really close to Bonds)

[Dids]

Red Bean I want to kiss you on the mouth for this thread. You've put a lot of what I feel about Bonds into words and numbers in a really nice way.