Early UFC 74/75 Lines

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
FWIW just being nitty, False Positive is a logic and statistics term. Its prevalently used on the information security side (my "real job" field). A real world example from there:

voice recognition security product. Alice provides a voiceprint, it is used by an application to authenticate Alice (identification) for entry to a door.

Alice steps up and properly authenticates: This is called a "True Positive" result -- Alice receives entry.

Alice steps up but the system fails to authenticate her: this is called a "False Negative" result. or a type II statical error. The system falsely gave you a negative response when you should have received a positive. Alice does not receive entry even though she should receive entry

Bob steps up and provides Alice's voiceprint command. The system allows him entry. This is a "False Positive" in that the system falsely provided the "positive result" to an inappropriate actor. This is also called a type I statistical error.

The fourth possible condition is a "True Negative" -- for example Bob steps up and provides Alice's voiceprint command and the system correctly denies him entry.

Longwinded way of saying that "False Positive" is the very correct terminology here from a stastical or logical sense -- as it is frequently applied in the field of medical testing as well. In the event that for whatever reason he was not actually on steroids (not that I'm saying this is the case) the test result would officially be a "False Positive" test for steroids. Likewise if he was actually on steroids but succesfully masked them in the test, that is a "False Negative".

-P


PS: my call is Penn fights the winner of Stevenson vs. Pellegrino from UFC 74 for the vacant title. When he wins that, he steps up to 170 and becomes the first person to consolidates two UFC weight classes.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

haha I took Human Factors 18 months ago...thanks for clarifying it for everyone else but I was well aware of this term. Basically I meant that a "false positive" on sherk means someone or soemthing messed up. There are only a certain level of confidence interval with these tests plus people need to realize creatine supplementation and heavy lifting increases ur test results. I firmly beleive someone as deliberate as sherk probasbly used the proper amount of deca durobolin to come up just short of positive but failed to realize how naturally elevated his levels are. In fact for hte olympics 2ng/mL is positive and I'm almost POSITIVE he would fail that without any drug use.

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
ill-intent, that's me.. not a single +ev worthy post in the entire world

[/ QUOTE ]

dude I nuthug you at every chance. I basically meant biggums was an immature child trying to prove he's right...is that not true?

and you posted to make him feel bad while including glances of +EV material...often I feel your posts are only +EV for the people who already see what you see...so that doesn't really add EV for them. For everyone else it just insults them...IE mr biggums.

[Performify]

[ QUOTE ]
haha I took Human Factors 18 months ago...thanks for clarifying it for everyone else but I was well aware of this term. Basically I meant that a "false positive" on sherk means someone or soemthing messed up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well logically speaking a false positive or a false negative both means that "someone or something messed up". That's the very definition of either type of error [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

But i hear you.... your response #11287718 at 08:01 PM which I didn't see before I replied actually very well enunciates your position... that's what i get for opening a thread to read it, and replying without refreshing several hours later...

-P

[slickpoppa]

I'm gonna go out on a limb and give Sherk the benefit of the doubt. There have been a lot of papers posted recently indicating that Nandrolone levels of much higher than 6ng/mL are possible without anabolic steroid use:

http://www.thinkmuscle.com/articles/...drug-tests.htm

"Foremost is the dearth of scientific and medical data that substantiates the decision of a positive drug test.

What is known amounts to an acknowledgement that nandrolone, or at least its metabolites, are endogenous steroid and from a few small studies that the urinary levels of it’s metabolites are assumed to be very low. As such a cut off level of 2 and 5 ng/ml has been set for men and women respectively as the upper limit of endogenous NA in the urine in an internal IOC Memorandum in August, 1998. Even in this miniscule sampling it is obvious that even in normal people that this contention is wrong since an early study found elevated levels of NA, between 9 and 37 ng/ml, in three male volunteers who had not used the anabolic steroid nandrolone."

...

"The research project into nandrolone confirmed the suspicions of many when it announced today its conclusion that a combination of exercise and nutritional supplements could lead to a positive finding. At the same time, analysis discovered that supplements taken by the athletes did not appear to contain nandrolone.

The working group, which consisted of Professor Ron Maughan, Professor Eric Newsholme, Professor Clyde Williams and Professor Ed Hillhouse, undertook an experiment which, it said, demonstrated 'an urgent need for a full investigation of the factors that can give rise to positive nandrolone tests in athletes.'

The test involved three athletes who had been reported as positive for the drug and three healthy volunteers. Over a seven-day period, the athletes trained but did not take supplements and submitted urine samples for analysis, which all proved negative or 'at the low end of the normal range.' However, when two of the athletes started to take the supplements they had taken prior to their positive tests, one of them returned levels of nandrolone consistently above 10ng/ml, which represents a level five times the legal limit for males.

When the three healthy volunteers were given the same supplements, as were used by the athlete who returned a positive result in the experiment, only the subject who was training was found to be positive. This volunteer's urine recorded a level in excess of 10ng/ml on the second day.

In a statement, the working party declared: 'From these preliminary results, we conclude that a combination of exercise and dietary supplements, none of which appears to contain a prohibited substance, can result in a positive nandrolone finding.'"


Institute of Pharmacology and Toxicology, and Doping Control Center, Tzu Chi University, Hualien, Taiwan. [email protected]

"Nandrolone is one of the synthetic anabolic steroids banned in sports and has been a popular substance abused by athletes in recent years. One of its major metabolites, 19-norandrosterone (19-NA), has been used as a determinant for drug violations in sports. Current reports regarding nandrolone-positive cases have been related to intake of some nandrolone-free nutritional supplements. The aim of this study was to learn whether if a nutritional supplement sold by over-the-counter (OTC) nutritional stores could yield the same metabolic products as that of nandrolone. If so, what is (are) the substance(s) that contributed to the nandrolone metabolites? To determine the content of an OTC nutritional supplement, a tablet was dissolved in methanol, followed by N-methyl-N-trimethylsilyltrifluoroacetamide (MSTFA)-trimethyliodosilane (TMIS) derivatization prior to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis. The collected urine samples underwent extraction, enzymatic hydrolysis, and derivatization before the analyses of GC-MS. The results showed that seven anabolic steroids were found as contaminants in the nutritional supplement, in addition to six that were listed in the ingredients by the manufacturer. We confirmed previous reports that administration of the OTC supplement could produce a positive urine test for nandrolone metabolites. Furthermore, the results from excretion studies showed that 19-NA and 19-noretiocholanolone (19-NE) were present in urine after consuming the nutritional supplement, nandrolone, 19-nor-4-androsten-3,17-dione, 19-nor-4-androsten-3beta,17beta-diol, and 19-nor-5-androsten-3beta,17beta-diol. The 19-NA concentrations in urine were generally higher than that of 19-NE (19-NA/19-NE ratio > 1.0) especially during the early stage of excretion, that is, before 6 h post-administration. After this period of time, the concentrations of 19-NA and 19-NE fluctuated and might even have reversed (19-NA/19-NE ratio < 1.0) in their ratio, that is, higher yield in 19-NE than that in 19-NA. On the basis of this study, we postulate that some doping violations of nandrolone could be attributed by indiscriminate administration of the OTC nutritional supplements that contained 19-norsteroids."

[igetbadbeat]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm gonna go out on a limb and give Sherk the benefit of the doubt. There have been a lot of papers posted recently indicating that Nandrolone levels of much higher than 6ng/mL are possible without anabolic steroid use:

http://www.thinkmuscle.com/articles/...drug-tests.htm

"Foremost is the dearth of scientific and medical data that substantiates the decision of a positive drug test.

What is known amounts to an acknowledgement that nandrolone, or at least its metabolites, are endogenous steroid and from a few small studies that the urinary levels of it’s metabolites are assumed to be very low. As such a cut off level of 2 and 5 ng/ml has been set for men and women respectively as the upper limit of endogenous NA in the urine in an internal IOC Memorandum in August, 1998. Even in this miniscule sampling it is obvious that even in normal people that this contention is wrong since an early study found elevated levels of NA, between 9 and 37 ng/ml, in three male volunteers who had not used the anabolic steroid nandrolone."

...

"The research project into nandrolone confirmed the suspicions of many when it announced today its conclusion that a combination of exercise and nutritional supplements could lead to a positive finding. At the same time, analysis discovered that supplements taken by the athletes did not appear to contain nandrolone.

The working group, which consisted of Professor Ron Maughan, Professor Eric Newsholme, Professor Clyde Williams and Professor Ed Hillhouse, undertook an experiment which, it said, demonstrated 'an urgent need for a full investigation of the factors that can give rise to positive nandrolone tests in athletes.'

The test involved three athletes who had been reported as positive for the drug and three healthy volunteers. Over a seven-day period, the athletes trained but did not take supplements and submitted urine samples for analysis, which all proved negative or 'at the low end of the normal range.' However, when two of the athletes started to take the supplements they had taken prior to their positive tests, one of them returned levels of nandrolone consistently above 10ng/ml, which represents a level five times the legal limit for males.

When the three healthy volunteers were given the same supplements, as were used by the athlete who returned a positive result in the experiment, only the subject who was training was found to be positive. This volunteer's urine recorded a level in excess of 10ng/ml on the second day.

In a statement, the working party declared: 'From these preliminary results, we conclude that a combination of exercise and dietary supplements, none of which appears to contain a prohibited substance, can result in a positive nandrolone finding.'"


Institute of Pharmacology and Toxicology, and Doping Control Center, Tzu Chi University, Hualien, Taiwan. [email protected]

"Nandrolone is one of the synthetic anabolic steroids banned in sports and has been a popular substance abused by athletes in recent years. One of its major metabolites, 19-norandrosterone (19-NA), has been used as a determinant for drug violations in sports. Current reports regarding nandrolone-positive cases have been related to intake of some nandrolone-free nutritional supplements. The aim of this study was to learn whether if a nutritional supplement sold by over-the-counter (OTC) nutritional stores could yield the same metabolic products as that of nandrolone. If so, what is (are) the substance(s) that contributed to the nandrolone metabolites? To determine the content of an OTC nutritional supplement, a tablet was dissolved in methanol, followed by N-methyl-N-trimethylsilyltrifluoroacetamide (MSTFA)-trimethyliodosilane (TMIS) derivatization prior to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) analysis. The collected urine samples underwent extraction, enzymatic hydrolysis, and derivatization before the analyses of GC-MS. The results showed that seven anabolic steroids were found as contaminants in the nutritional supplement, in addition to six that were listed in the ingredients by the manufacturer. We confirmed previous reports that administration of the OTC supplement could produce a positive urine test for nandrolone metabolites. Furthermore, the results from excretion studies showed that 19-NA and 19-noretiocholanolone (19-NE) were present in urine after consuming the nutritional supplement, nandrolone, 19-nor-4-androsten-3,17-dione, 19-nor-4-androsten-3beta,17beta-diol, and 19-nor-5-androsten-3beta,17beta-diol. The 19-NA concentrations in urine were generally higher than that of 19-NE (19-NA/19-NE ratio > 1.0) especially during the early stage of excretion, that is, before 6 h post-administration. After this period of time, the concentrations of 19-NA and 19-NE fluctuated and might even have reversed (19-NA/19-NE ratio < 1.0) in their ratio, that is, higher yield in 19-NE than that in 19-NA. On the basis of this study, we postulate that some doping violations of nandrolone could be attributed by indiscriminate administration of the OTC nutritional supplements that contained 19-norsteroids."

[/ QUOTE ]

QFT, unfortunately we don't know the motives behind the people who did these studies...but it is in line with what I beleive. Today there is too mcuh anti-steroid propaganda and too little understanding of nutritional technology.

It is a shame that sherk's name will forever be tainted after this event unless the unlikely possibility of sherk bringing a complete scientific reform with regards to steroids comes about (A reform I beleive is 15 years in the making)...but odds are he won't be the one to do such. GL to him...hopefully he can at least keep his belt and fight BJ.


The problem is that if he's let off the hook...tons of other fighters will realize they can lie. The only thing I beleive sherk can do is put himself up 24/7 watch showing no steroid use and reproduce levels above 6ng/mL. Unfortunately that is an almost impossible task, who can be watched over 24/7?

[svj]

Out of the two positives, I assume at least one of them must be genuine.... so riddle me this, Batman...

What does the UFC expect its fighters to do if they sustain pulls/strains/injuries in training?

Phone in to Dana and say "I just pulled something in my back, I can't make the fight. Go ahead and give my paycheck to someone else" ?

I think "don't blame the fighter, blame the system."

Except for a select few top-notch fighters (and Tito), most of these guys need to fight several times a year to keep food on their table and clothes on their kids. Backing out of a fight simply is not an option for the majority of these fighters. Is it any surprise that these guys are taking perforance enhancing substances to increase their performance, healing times, and decrease their chance of injury?

It seems to me that unless something is done about the pay structure in the UFC, and other incentives to juice are dealt with, these incidents will keep happening. Very, very regularly.

I'm a huge MMA fan, but I'm also a businessman. As a businessman, it seems to me the best way for White, Fertita & Co. to avoid these almost monthly black eyes is to put their contracted fighters on a "training wage", my pro wrestler buddy refers to it as a "downside gaurantee". Fighters who are then found in violation can have additional stiffer fines imposed by the employer, since fighters are now looked after in the case of the inevitable injury.

Of course this is just one idea, and it is open to abuse. But that abuse can at least be dealt with behind closed doors, not in the public arena, where media outlets make their livings off of sensationalizing things like this.

The front office is certainly maximizing its profits by attempting to keep fighter salaries in check. I respect that. But shouldn't they need to balance that against the cost of the bad press they receive every month in positive drug tests?

I'm also fairly certain that's not the best solution to the problem, it's just my solution. Anyone else with any ideas?

[DannyOcean_]

I know this is heartless, but anyone who chooses to ingest 22 different supplements each and every day, and then tests positive and whines 'but it could have been my supplements' is absolutely an idiot. Maybe don't overload your body with foriegn substances and you wont test as having elavated chemical levels, doh? Sherk gets no sympathy. He had complete control over what he put in his body, and even given the small chance he isn't 'guilty', he still f'ed up. He knew that taking 22 supplements was going to f with his body chemistry, isn't that the point of taking them? So big suprise that his test comes up positive.

[MikeyPatriot]

[ QUOTE ]
I know this is heartless, but anyone who chooses to ingest 22 different supplements each and every day, and then tests positive and whines 'but it could have been my supplements' is absolutely an idiot. Maybe don't overload your body with foriegn substances and you wont test as having elavated chemical levels, doh? Sherk gets no sympathy. He had complete control over what he put in his body, and even given the small chance he isn't 'guilty', he still f'ed up. He knew that taking 22 supplements was going to f with his body chemistry, isn't that the point of taking them? So big suprise that his test comes up positive.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree. When you're at an athletic level that Sherk is at, especially in a combat sport, where the talent between the top tier of fighters is not far apart most of your edge on your opponents is based on your size, strength, etc. In my mind, it's extremely unfair to punish him for taking a combination of legal supplements if that is what caused his test to come back positive. The athletic commissions aren't testing for high levels, they're testing for banned substances. And if Sherk didn't take any banned substance, he didn't break any rules.

[Thremp]

Mikey,

You do realize the supplement crap is likely BS. Like Mark and the andro? You also realize that testing includes ratios of normal hormones? It doesn't just test for "banned" substances. Athletes should know 100% what they put in their bodies. Not knowing is not an excuse. He's likely a cheater and got popped for it. Sucks but how life is.

[pepeman]

25 Gabriel Gonzaga vs Randy Couture
08:00 PM 401 Gabriel Gonzaga -131
402 Randy Couture +121
UFC 74- Mandalay Bay Events Center, Nevada: Welterweights
Sat 8/25 Georges St-Pierre vs Josh Koscheck
08:00 PM 421 Georges St-Pierre -206
422 Josh Koscheck +186
UFC 75 - London , England: Heavyweights
Sat 9/8 Mirko Cro Cop vs Cheick Kongo
02:00 PM 521 Mirko Cro Cop -361
522 Cheick Kongo +331
UFC 75 - London , England: Light Heavyweights
Sat 9/8 Quinton Jackson vs Dan Henderson
03:00 PM 501 Quinton Jackson -131
502 Dan Henderson +121
Sat 9/8 Michael Bisping vs Matt Hamill
02:00 PM 503 Michael Bisping -211
504 Matt Hamill +191

Cant decide about Randy or Gonzaga. I'm gonna put some monies on Rampage and GSP.