Donkey Test

[cheburashka]

We're only on Question 10. I think the questions get significantly tougher later on, and that is where the difference will be.

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
We're only on Question 10. I think the questions get significantly tougher later on, and that is where the difference will be.

[/ QUOTE ]

that makes sense.. of course, i lost patience/focus later on too.

[godofPOPOV]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot: $25 SB + $1500 BB + $200 Early raiser + $200 yours
$1300 to call

Total pot after call: $3225

Hand 0: 57.240% 57.04% 00.20% 293023920 1012998.00 { QQ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 42.760% 42.56% 00.20% 218641284 1012998.00 { TT }

3225*.4256=1379.01 call

Hand 0: 59.891% 59.69% 00.20% 343427268 1147962.00 { JJ+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 40.109% 39.91% 00.20% 229610952 1147962.00 { TT }

3225*.40109=1293.51525 close fold


[/ QUOTE ]


will you explain all these numbers a little bit more?
i just got poker stove and am not sure the analysis you went through but would like to understand it

[dfan]

I'm interested. I think the questions are challenging and thinking them through is very helpful. Besides I missed a few and I would like to know why.

My only disappointment is that some of the questions don't seem to get enough analysis before we move on. For example Q3. Maybe an alternative approach is to create a thread for each of the more challenging questions and then cross post it in the appropriate forum, such as medium or high stakes NL. It might get some more in-depth, informed responses there.

[dfan]

[ QUOTE ]
I guess question 3 could also be a call because MPs range for opening then folding is probably AJo, AJs, AQo, AQs 77-JJ so a couple bad cards could be dead.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting point about taking into account the card removal effect of the mp raisers likely range of hands. However the effect would be in the opposite direction than you state if we assume the bb raiser's range is AQ+,QQ+. Under your assumptions the mp raiser will have an A about 60% of the time (48 combos of AJ+ vs 30 combos for 77-JJ). When he does, the removal of an A from the deck lowers the probability that the bb raiser has AQ,AK, or AA and increases prob. he has QQ,KK.

I just ran it through pokerstove to see the overall effect and the equity drops from 42.8 to 41.8% when you plug in a dead A. So in reality the A removal effect does lower your equity, but the effect is so small as to be ignorable. Especially since the original raiser won't have an A 100% of the time.

[cheburashka]

Mikever, dude, we know you have a life outside of pleasing us and all, but this thread is so interesting, we're waiting on pins and needles for you!

[degeneratum]

Q11
5/10 NL Cash game. 9 handed. Everyone has about $1,200. UTG raises to $50 and gets two calls from solid tight aggressive players.

You are in the BB with: KhKc


You re-raise to $250 and get three callers.

Flop is: Qd8c3h


You bet $300 on the flop. UTG player calls and a middle position player moves all in for $750 more. What should you do?

[degeneratum]

Q12
5/10 NL Cash game. 6 handed. Folded to the cutoff. A weak player with a $400 stack raises to $40.

You have him covered and re-raise from the button to $100 with: AcAh


He calls.

Flop is: Kd6s4s


He bets $100. What should you do?


Also would someone please tell me the code for getting the pics of the card so it doesn't have to be like 3c or whatever.

[KipBond]

[ QUOTE ]
Also would someone please tell me the code for getting the pics of the card so it doesn't have to be like 3c or whatever.

[/ QUOTE ]

Click the "Instant Graemlins" buttons below the post box. Or type:
: spade :
: heart :
: diamond :
: club :

without any spaces between the colons & the word.

[cheburashka]

My usual caveat about sucking at this game, but...

On question 11 I fold. I would put a very narrow range on "solid tight players" who called a raise and a reraise: QQ+, AK, maaaybe AQ (if "solid tight" means something other than what Harrington would say it does). So the only hand KK beats that might possibly explain MP's all-in raise is AQ.

With pot-odds of 3-1, we would have to assign a reasonable probablility of AQ compared to QQ or AA (I would assign 0% for AK) for this to be +EV (I don't have pokerstove, but maybe someone who does can tell us what that probability should be).

To my point about sucking at this game...
Now that I think about it, MP could also possibly shove with AsKs, where we are also a favorite. Doing a bit of (non-pokerstove) math, I come up with this being a call if we think that the combined probability of AQ+AsKs is more than ~25% (with AA+QQ being ~75%).

So far we have 100% agreement on Q12, so I won't comment.