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#71
01-10-2007, 05:46 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
Ouch! That hurts to the quick. I am humiliated, chagrined and mortified! Poker cop has spoken! Guess I never saw those "rules". (Prob since I haven't spent as much time trolling the micros as pokercop apparently has.) But last time I looked in this thread WAS actually commenting on this play, so I guess pokercop may have missed something. (Something about none are so blind as those who will not see). Notice also that his answer is still another non-answer. If he really had something intellignet to say wouldn't he have said it, instead of a fruitless continuation of the dissing my comment seems to have occasioned. Could it be that the (poker) emperors really have no clothes...? (Not a pretty picture, I konow, but, hey, I can't protect him forever) [/ QUOTE ] what the hell is your problem? you asked why james didn't give a reason for his response, and i tried to explain that. my intention was not to humiliate you. if i did, i apologize. that was not my intention. but if you do feel humiliated, i think you need to look inward, not outward. the bottom line is that you likely will have better luck getting an answer for why this is a preflop call in a different forum. if you want to label everyone in this forum an [censored] because of that, well, that is your choice. 
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#73
01-10-2007, 05:59 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
God, what a waste of godd sarcasm! Nothing worse than a humorless prig. But still no substantive answer. The emperor now officially has no clothes! [/ QUOTE ] you're an idiot. byebye.
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#76
01-10-2007, 07:56 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
This thread is over a year old. Why has it been resurrected? [/ QUOTE ] my fault. our friend rotting was making asinine posts in ssf about how its NEVER correct to fold a flush draw on the flop i lhe. so i linked him to this gem where a bunch of high stakesers advocated folding not only a flush draw but a flush and straight draw. o0o
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#77
01-10-2007, 11:05 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ouch! That hurts to the quick. I am humiliated, chagrined and mortified! Poker cop has spoken! Guess I never saw those "rules". (Prob since I haven't spent as much time trolling the micros as pokercop apparently has.) But last time I looked in this thread WAS actually commenting on this play, so I guess pokercop may have missed something. (Something about none are so blind as those who will not see). Notice also that his answer is still another non-answer. If he really had something intellignet to say wouldn't he have said it, instead of a fruitless continuation of the dissing my comment seems to have occasioned. Could it be that the (poker) emperors really have no clothes...? (Not a pretty picture, I konow, but, hey, I can't protect him forever) [/ QUOTE ] what the hell is your problem? you asked why james didn't give a reason for his response, and i tried to explain that. my intention was not to humiliate you. if i did, i apologize. that was not my intention. but if you do feel humiliated, i think you need to look inward, not outward. the bottom line is that you likely will have better luck getting an answer for why this is a preflop call in a different forum. if you want to label everyone in this forum an [censored] because of that, well, that is your choice. [/ QUOTE ] Yeah I mean no offense but this is 1st grade poker stuff. If you fold your expectation of the hand is -1 SB. If you call, you put in 1 small bet while there are already 9.5 small bets in the pot. On average, in this situation, calling will give you a better expectation than -1 sb. It will likely turn a negative expectation situation into a positive expectation one. Get lost, man, your abrasive(and wrong) input really isn't welcome here. James
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#78
01-10-2007, 11:38 PM
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Re: Call
[ QUOTE ]
Just wanted to step in and say I really dont think this is a fold here. I am not sure and a bunch of good players in succession just leaned towards fold but I really doubt it. Maybe I will try to do some math later while I pack for the Bahammas. I think if anything, the gutshot outs keep u in there. You guys are overestimating the times a higher draw is out there IMO. It has to be pretty often to make this a fold. [/ QUOTE ] im glad this thread came back b/c i was, so far as i can tell from here, wrong. after thinking about this in terms of hand values on the flop, what does the pfr have? most often it is AQ/AK type hands that missed, followed AJ/pair type hands, followed by other high card hands KQ/ATs/ATo even(some that may have a diamond that he just cont.bet with). he may have JJ or 66, however given the following action that is less likely. both players cold called 2 after the pfr opened. JJ is unlikely, however QJ/JT/J9/J8 (suited or unsuited) are most likely frmo these raisers. then comes the 66 and 22 from the 2nd and 3rd pf cold caller. against them, we have a strong spot, but their redraws and cards that kill our draws hurt. what sux for us also here is that the J isn't a diamond, amking those that have a jack going to the river in almost all cicumstances if we hit the diamond and def. calling the river bet if it's out there and it almost certainly is given the action. so those are the combinations that seem by far the most likely both hand range wise and combinatorically. the real question i think we have to ask ourselves here now is whether we can increase our equity relatively more by capping than by cold calling. i.e. will the pfr or first raiser fold hands for 3 or 2 more bets that they'd call for 2 or 1 more bets. in the case of the pfr i think he's pretty much otuta here w/o a solid hand. if he has a solid hand, he's not folding for 3 and calling for 2. the first raiser is the main swing vote for capping here. JT doesn't look so good right now, and neither does QJ or any of those jack (with or without) a diamond in there. getting some dead money in the pot is a big advantage and increases our equity alot (both due to increased pot odds and increased probability of winning the pot/paying less to see the draw on future streets...which brings up turn action but we'll get to that in a sec). so if we can get one of them out we should probably put the other bet in. either way our hand is pretty exposed. capping and betting the turn may get expensive in that you've now given the option to open the action upa lot to those who put in a lot of it on the flop. if you cap to try to get guys out and they stay, checking the turn (depending on what it is) mayb e best. so jesse, i think you're right that it's closer to a cap than a fold, and overall i think a call is best. i still haven't done the math, and im not going to due to laziness. but logic here so far says this is a call and i was wrong in my initial post. in terms of preflop...wow...that is a simple ass call and it isn't even remotely close. this is a profitable preflop call if the pf raiser opens, ONE person calls and it's folded to you getting 5.5:1 on your call. if you fold, you've lost a small bet. if you call, you'll likely earn on averave more than 1.2-1.5 bets netting you .2-.5 small bets in expectation. i could open up poker tracker and mess around to find out what those type of hands have shown inf ull ring limit games but it's almost my bedtime and i've put enough into this post for now. needless to say, insults, while fun and definitely entertaining, dont get us anywhere analytically. that said, brian dude, you are way out of your league here if your issue with this hand is the pre flop call. i hope the analysis above is enough for you. Barron
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#79
01-10-2007, 11:41 PM
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Re: 50/100 party hand
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This thread is over a year old. Why has it been resurrected? [/ QUOTE ] my fault. our friend rotting was making asinine posts in ssf about how its NEVER correct to fold a flush draw on the flop i lhe. so i linked him to this gem where a bunch of high stakesers advocated folding not only a flush draw but a flush and straight draw. o0o [/ QUOTE ] well turns out some of us high stakes players who advocated folding a flush draw could be wrong. 3:1 on the flop or even 2:1 w/ some dead money is a good thing. glad it got resurrected and jesse looks like a savior from this perspective (for new guys, im referring to hiatusover...very good respected player) Barron
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#80
01-11-2007, 12:00 AM
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Re: Call
Talk about debating how many angels can danceon the head of a pin! Elegant as this analysis is, it's essentially irrelevant since the error estimate in each supposition is so great that the standard error will totally oblitertae the value of the single, determinsitic point estimate decision you have to make. The only way this kind of analysis can be of anything but academic value is in the event that you get to face this decision repeatedly so that your large number of trials give you a chance to benefit from the value added of the analysis. So I conclude that the only times this kind of micro-analysis is justified is for situations that occur frequently (e.g., overcards on th flop; small pocket pairs) In fact, this discussion reminds me of a succinct bit of Sklanksy wisdom (cannot recall source) in wich he castigates 2+2'ers for obsessing over intersting but rare hands at the expense of more common situations. Barron has, in this post, perfectly illustrated this fault.
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