General Gambling Questions For Me

[AntonHeat]

answer question ftw

[jogger08152]

Do you believe a non-insider can successfully gamble (long-term) on professional boxing matches?

Ditto, UFC/MMA matches?

[curious123]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you believe a non-insider can successfully gamble (long-term) on professional boxing matches?

Ditto, UFC/MMA matches?

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto, and if so, will you be charging the standard $39.95 for the gizmo needed to accomplish this? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Poker monkey]

David, my question: did you have any intention of answering these questions when you started this thread? Or has it just been a really busy month for you? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] Come on, people are making an effort to ask them, but I can only see 3 responses - to paraphrase: "I can't think of any", "These questions are all boring", and "I'm not telling".

[Dot_the_Bot]

IN hold'em poker, is the value of position A. completely separate from hand value; B. a PART of hand value; or C. A separate value that can both stand alone or be added with hand value.

If C, could that mean then that hand value is does not actually increase or decrease- but is a static probability that can be added onto other values?

[BigSlick75093]

I don't know if this is a stupid question or not, but my question is regarding the probability of hitting a flush when you are at a 10-handed table, you have two hole cards of the same suit and two of that same suit hit the flop.

With 20 cards being dealt preflop, isn't there the probability that 5 cards of each suit were dealt out? If so, wouldn't you assume you most likely only have 6 outs to make your flush, not 9, and adjust your required pot odds higher in order to make a call? Surely the odds that you were the only one of 10 people to get any cards of that suit in your hand are very low. Could you actually assume that all of the 9 other cards of your suit remain in the deck? What are the odds of that happening?

[tessarji]

This is a pretty old question, as I'm sure you know. But I'll give it a go at explaining it again, without (much) actual math.

The answer is that sometimes all 9 of your outs remain in the deck. Sometimes 8 are in the deck. Sometimes none at all are in the deck. All combinations like this are possibilities.

When all 9 outs are in the deck, you actually have an extremely good chance to make your flush on the next card. 23 cards are in hands or on the table, so the deck has 29 more. 9/29 is about 30%, which is much higher than the 4:1 usually quoted.

When none of your outs are in the deck, your chance of making the flush is 0/29 or 0%.

Obviously, its pretty rare that exactly nine or zero of your outs are in the deck. Usually its something in the middle. What we care about is the sum of all the possibilities.

Thinking about this, you'd conclude your answer totalled and averaged over all situations would turn out to be less that 9/29, and more than 0/29.

It turns out to average out to exactly 9/47. This isn't a coincidence, it's a probability theorem, which states that in the absence of specific information, the value of your 'outs' when the deck is rich in your cards exactly cancels the 'douts' when the deck is void in your cards, and leads to the same value as if you consider all unknown cards to be still in the deck.

[willie24]

[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

all that matters are the 2 cards that are yet to come. if a card doesn't come, it doesn't matter (for the purposes of your odds) whether it is in an opponent's hand or left in the deck. do you know what cards are in your opponents' hands? if not, then how many hearts are in their hands doesn't matter, because it can't be predicted. an unseen card is an unseen card.

another way to think about it is that, if, on average 3.8/20 opponent cards are hearts, then, on average 5.2/27 remaining cards in the deck are hearts. this ratio is exactly the same as 9/47

[Copernicus]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know if this is a stupid question or not, but my question is regarding the probability of hitting a flush when you are at a 10-handed table, you have two hole cards of the same suit and two of that same suit hit the flop.

With 20 cards being dealt preflop, isn't there the probability that 5 cards of each suit were dealt out? If so, wouldn't you assume you most likely only have 6 outs to make your flush, not 9, and adjust your required pot odds higher in order to make a call? Surely the odds that you were the only one of 10 people to get any cards of that suit in your hand are very low. Could you actually assume that all of the 9 other cards of your suit remain in the deck? What are the odds of that happening?

[/ QUOTE ]

To look at in a slightly different way, when the deck was shuffled the cards were randomly placed in the deck and the deck cut. Where the deck was cut results in the nth and n+2 cards being the turn and river cards after the burn. Since each card was randomly placed, there was originally a 1-(39/52*38/51) chance of a given suit showing NOT showing up on the turn or river. However you know four cards of your suit and one card of another suit werent available to go to the turn or river because you have them. Therefore the probability that neither the turn nor river is your suit changes to 1-(38/47*37/46)=.3496. [9 out of the 47 unknown were your suit so 38 werent]. Note that the fact that a bunch of cards were dealt to other players first doesnt mean anything..we are just looking at the cards available to be placed at the turn or river spot when the cards were shuffled.

Now what does it mean to say you have 9 outs? It means you the turn and river go Suit suit (9/47*8/46) suit non suit (9/47*38/46) non-suit suit (38/47*9/46) and non-suit non suit (38/47*37/46). The first 3 are good for you and if you add the up, = .3496. (or note that the only bad one is the last one, which is what we subtracted from 1 in the first calculation. and we never considered the positions of any other cards that might have been dealt pre-flop, since they were set based on the random shuffle.

[oscark]

Was Ernie Moody lucky or a genius idea?