TOP: Fundamental Theorem discussion.

[flubsy]

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Look at a blackjack table some time. See the dealer showing a king. Watch the guy with 15 stay because "I know I'll bust if I take a card." Watch the folks split tens, take insurance or even-money blackjacks when dealer is showing an ace, hit (not double) when they have 11 and dealer shows a 6, etc., and you'll quickly realize that common folks simply do NOT always make the mathematically correct choices.


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This example does not coincide with the FTOP. The player would have to know BOTH of the dealer's hole cards for your example to be correct.

Now, if you adjust that one small difference , you will see that you actually made a PERFECT example of situations where the FTOP is absolutely correct.

YOU are the dealer. THEY are the player. THEY know you have a 10 and a 9, they STAND with 16 because "they dont want to bust." As opposed to hitting. YOU profit. They SHOULD hit it is the mathmatically optimal choice (given standing has a 0% chance of winning). Because people have ONE CARD hidden from them, they DO NOT make the mathmatically optimal decision. Voila: FTOP.

That said, I had the weirdest thing come up in a small buy-in live tourney the other day. A new player in the 6 seat had placed their big chips behind their drink holder when sitting down from a broken table, so t21000 was completely concealed from me, who was sitting in the 9 seat. Blinds were t500/t1000. Im dealt As, Ks on the CO. UTG calls the blind as does UTG+1 (very loose, passive table) and Villian pushes in his stack of black t500 chips; fold, fold; I ask the dealer to count the stack, the bet is t8000. I say, "all-in" and push in my 30K. Everyone folds back to the villian, I pull back t22000 and turn over my cards...

and thats when villian says, "wait..I'm not all in" and out comes the stack of t20,000 in red chips. (I know Im a donk for not realizing it was there, so please don't bring it up.) The dealer has me put my chips back out, and tells the villain I've got him covered. He says, "Hold on, Im thinking of whether to call or not," and pulls up his 9h,Jh to look at it where everyone else can see. Then he sadly hangs his head down and says, "Damn you Skalansky..."

what do you think he did then? I will say this, I wasn't crazy about how he had played this hand up to that point, BUT he's obviously familiar with the FTOP and EV...because he cursed Skalansky right before he...? anyone?