Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?

[21times20]

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Even if Gold has the hand you don't want him to have - a higher flush draw - but you think that Binger will call, which I do, then you've locked up second and you're FREEROLLING.

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why are you freerolling? if binger has a real hand and you and gold are sharing outs why aren't you afraid of tripling up binger and becoming the short stack?

[WaimanaloSlim]

If you don't win the whole pot...

- You don't care if Gold busts you both.
- You also don't care much if Binger wins the main pot and you win the sidepot. The sidepot is big enough that your stack will actually be bigger than it was when the hand started.

Folding 8s-7s on a 10c-6s-5s flop because you fear the precise combination that Binger will win the main pot *and* Gold will win the sidepot is EXTREMELY weak-tight.

[21times20]

why are you winning a sidepot if you don't beat binger? are you actually counting on your 8 high to beat gold if you don't hit your draw?

[FortunaMaximus]

For something with that much riding on the result, pretty uninteresting hand.

A $2 million jump is going to change most people's thinking about EV.

[WaimanaloSlim]

Yes, you're screwed if Binger's hand ends up best and Gold second best.

If Gold busts you both, it's okay. And it's okay if Binger's hand is best and you end up second best.

I'm repeating myself, but you don't think folding 8s-7s on a 10c-6s-5s flop because you fear that BOTH Binger will win the main pot and Gold will win the sidepot is being overly fearful?

Even if you're risk-adverse, the risk-reward ratio doesn't overpay here?

[J.A.K.]

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i think people are really underestimating wasicka's read on gold, i watched the live feed and every bit of my poorly developed poker instinct thought it was obvious gold was on a draw

do you really want to make this call with an 8-high draw knowing in your heart gold is probably going to turn over something like Q2 suited?

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I SPECIFICALLY want to make this call against Gold, who has shown a propensity to overvalue hands such as TP. And, respectfully disagreeing w/ betgo, it does help me when working backwards to know that 4% of the time he has a higher FD (preflop) when weighing Gold's range at present.

[Confused1]

I watched this live, not the edited version - but I think Wasicka made the right move here. He clearly thought he could outplay these guys and was waiting on Gold to make a huge mistake. Forget that two cards are coming unless you'll push here, because Gold would put him to the test again immediately.

Wasicka also thought/knew he could outplay Gold HU - and just getting there makes him another 2 Million?

[rando]

Things to remember:

- Wasicka in one of those canned interviews said he thought he would win HU against Gold if Gold had him outchipped 10:1

- Gold had talked about his hands perfectly and said something like "let's go all three of us and get this over" and everyone always made the wrong decision when they based it on what Gold was talking about... certainly a factor for Wasicka.

- Gold has luckboxed into the most unlikely hands at all times. If you saw him bust two FT players with QQ to JJ, would you be spooked? How about his 22 flopping a set against AK? Wasicka's correct read and incorrect laydown against Gold's 52 turned straight after checking too far down? If I was in Wasicka's shoes at the moment he had to decide to lay this hand down, those factors would be at the forefront of my mind more so than calculating odds.

... Wasicka's best bet would have been to overpot bet or push the flop to isolate... in that case you're making Binger and Gold make the tough decisions - who at the FT ever made Gold make the hard decision? Once Wasicka passes up the flop lead out, his fold makes a lot of sense to me, especially in the context of figuring out his best chance to cash at a higher level... they are in the pot let them duke it out if they show strength.

[betgo]

I think Wasicka didn't lead out because he was originally playing for the checkraise allin.

When he got all the action, he made a bad decision. He could be up against a higher flush draw, but pushing was clearly cEV+ and $EV+.

[Dunkman]

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I watched this live, not the edited version - but I got physically ill when Wasicka said what his hand was and prayed that he was lying and didn't just make the worst fold I have ever seen.

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