AVERAGE SPEED VIII: GAME THREAD

[ScottHoward]

[ QUOTE ]

Let me help you out; it isn't me either.

[/ QUOTE ]
im not sure of this at all

[Hornacek]

Awesome. Let's either:

a) Lynch a better candidate today, since there are tons better than me at the moment
b) Wait for the seer to come clear me. mmkay?

Anyways, I'm a bit tied up at work, I'll get back to reviewing the last few days when I have a free moment.

[MDoranD]

My current top 4 wolves:

#1. Chuckles (please lynch him now k thanks)
#2. WDC (I usually feel good about my reads on WDC. I started off this game though unsure, but Ive been leaning more and more towards wolf.
#3. Magra - This depends somewhat on what happens with WDC and Chuckles. I can see it, because he REALLY is giving off the vibe of a wolf who is afraid to post because he thinks it will incriminate him.
#4. Fnord - youre not on anyones suspect list, but a couple of your posts and your AFK-ness have rang some bells, so Im putting you on mine.

[Hornacek]

[ QUOTE ]

#3. Magra - This depends somewhat on what happens with WDC and Chuckles. I can see it, because he REALLY is giving off the vibe of a wolf who is afraid to post because he thinks it will incriminate him.

[/ QUOTE ]

DING DING DING DING!

[fnord_too]

Soah, if a bobo wagon starts, I have no problem getting on it because knowing what he is helps a lot. However, bobo is bobo and I am used to seeing this sort of thing from villager bobo and seer bobo, so I am more inclined to vote for you right now.

If you get lynched, who would you most want to see lynched next (after thebram, I know you want him gone)?

By the way, I think if I had said I also was unsure of X, you would have said "then why not vote X?" That is sort of what I am talking about when I say you are acting totally defensive. I don't think you care who goes as long as it isn't you.

As to why not go with what objective stuff we have, I don't think we have jack in that department. The things you keep harping on as evidence are not IMO anything significant.

[fnord_too]

MD,

Can't help you with my post tone, but I should be less afk. RL has been frenetic, but I can multi-task at work somewhat. Can you outline the cse against chuckles, my mind is full of soah/bobo right now at the expence of just about everyone else.

[soah]

[ QUOTE ]
By the way, I think if I had said I also was unsure of X, you would have said "then why not vote X?" That is sort of what I am talking about when I say you are acting totally defensive. I don't think you care who goes as long as it isn't you.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please do not put words in my mouth.

[MDoranD]

fnord,

"feel baby feel"...just kidding.

I cant do a post by post right now on him, but generally heres my feelings on Chuckles:

1. His villager game is much better than this. Hes usually very good at finding wolves. I think hes an excellent villager and an average wolf. Would you put his play in this game and post content in this game at anything over average? Id put it much lower, so thats my exhibit A.

2. When Im a wolf, and Chuckles is a villager, he is probably THE BEST POG'er at reading me as a wolf. It comes easy to him. THIS GAME HOWEVER, I know Im a villager, AND CHUCKLES THINKS IM A WOLF. He went after me very strongly earlier. If hes a villager and making this mistake on reading me, I believe its his first time. His mistake here is being a wolf and going after someone that he reads well (me) and calling me a wolf when Im not. This is my exhibit B.

3. His wolf lists have disagreed with mine in many circumstances. This isnt indictive alone, but coupled with the other things its a very strong case IMO.


I could come up with more Im sure if needed.

[chuckleslovakian]

Alright MDD, I'm willing to admit I'm probably wrong about you now. The reason I suspected you in the first place was that you went gungho on me for what I thought were obvious joke votes on you and OH. Now can we get back to lynching BobO or Bram?

[soah]

I have taken the time to think this through.

Cliff notes at the end.

Zurvan thinks I am a wolf. fnord agrees. Prior to Day 4, I had considered both of them to be very villagery, and I was generally considered to be very villagery as well. Why the change?

I considered the possibility that this is a wolf ploy. In order for this to be the case, the following things must be true:
- Zurvan and fnord both voted off a fellow wolf on Day 1. Zurvan voted for Patton all day and fnord accused him of "GOP logic" at the very start of the day before voting him later. So, this would have likely been a planned sacrifice to make themselves look clean, and get the villagers to target the poor confused villagers who defended Patton, or otherwise made suspicious moves. All of this is POSSIBLE, though NOT LIKELY.
- Zurvan and fnord planned to use their villagery status to railroad me. I've been posting a lot, so they would have no trouble picking out something from that to justify voting me. Also, they expected that bobO would eagerly jump on as well. They should have no trouble tricking a few villagers into following them. When I turn up villager, they can shift half of the blame to bobO, some to xorbie, and still look decent themselves. Then they have eliminated one of the most active villagers. This is something that is POSSIBLE, but after giving it some thought, it seems UNLIKELY.

So, we have two separate unlikely conditions, both requiring a high degree of fps. So, I must conclude that it is very unlikely for Zurvan and fnord to be wolves. They will both remain on my villagery list.

Next is bobO. His motivations are entirely unclear. I really did not expect him to ever back down like that. His play makes no sense as a wolf. It makes no sense as a villager. I do not expect him to last until endgame, but I'm actually not sure it's a good idea to lynch him now. His seer antics have the potential to confuse the wolves just as much as they confuse us.

Also, I have spent some more time thinking about Day 2, and I realized that I have been approaching it all wrong. I have been judging it as suspicious (not incriminating, of course) to have been involved in pushing for Tokyo or luckay. Since there were more than two bandwagons, and at least two of the wagons were villagers, there was no need for the wolves to have been pushing any particular wagon. For example, I believe that Horn was voting for Tokyo before he jumped to luckay. This is completely irrelevent as to whether Horn is a wolf (although from fnord's "it's all feel baby" perspective, I still think he is a candidate). I have not reread anything from Day 2 for a while, so I am not quite sure now how the voting went down in the middle of the day... but at the end I remember choosing between luckay, magra, books, and Tokyo. Of those, the Magra wagon started very, very late in the day (by luckay, books, and worthless, although I don't remember which order they voted in). Some notable conclusions off the top of my head are that books jumped on the weakest wagon, when there were wagons on two villagers that he could have picked, and other than books (who is unknown) the other two votes on Magra were from villagers. I'm not sure what conclusions to draw from all of this, but I will keep it in mind the next time through.

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Cliff notes: Zurvan and fnord are villagers, I'll worry about bobO another day, and it's time for me to reread some more stuff.