FGators graph thread [modnote: read the end, it's even worse]

[Catyoul]

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you would just dump it back over 686k hands of 2/4nl and then make it back at 1/2nl over 119.5 million hands

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A+

[goofyballer]

Well, I think you can have a sample that's too large to be stastically useful when you consider how much someone's game is changing over the time required to play those hands. You can't compute stats based on all the hands someone plays over their poker career and call them "winner" or "loser" because their winrate at one end of the graph will be substantially different than their winrate at the other.

[Catyoul]

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Well, I think you can have a sample that's too large to be stastically useful when you consider how much someone's game is changing over the time required to play those hands. You can't compute stats based on all the hands someone plays over their poker career and call them "winner" or "loser" because their winrate at one end of the graph will be substantially different than their winrate at the other.

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Of course, you're right.
I almost added a part in my post warning I was making plenty of assumptions, the biggest one being his game staying the same throughout all the hands... Although, is it really that far-fetched in this case ? [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[Keepitsimple]

99.7% is quite high. Btw you seem like a smart guy, any comments on if nl holdem converges to a normal distribution after 1.4 million hands?

[nath]

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See here's the thing, even though I want to play good poker, do you even NEED to play good poker to beat $1/2 given that 3 or 4 out of the 6 players are brain-dead?

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Normal person's logic: "FGators doesn't beat 1/2, therefore he does not play good poker"
FGators logic: "I MUST play better than these people, so this is just bad luck"

The only way you'll ever improve is if you drop the idea that you are a winning player who plays well. That's it.

[FGators]

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I really think one day they are gonna surprise me like Publisher's Clearinghouse and say I was a running psychological experiement and that they'll write me a check for $250k.

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you would just dump it back over 9.2 million hands of 1/2nl

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Not if they changed the account and made it run normal.

My account is pretty much like if you are playing Madden against a friend. You call the write plays on offense, you get open receivers and you throw the ball to them when they have a five yard cushion but for some reason the ball keeps clanking off their hands so instead of you having a big time offense and trounching him by scoring six touchdowns you embarassingly limp towards a meager 13 points and lose the game because even though you are outplaying your opponent and putting your players in the right position to win the game and be really succesful luck is getting in the way of you being unbeatable.

When they are catching that ball thats when you win and prove what can REALLY happen when outside influences don't mess things up.

[Triumph36]

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Well, I think you can have a sample that's too large to be stastically useful when you consider how much someone's game is changing over the time required to play those hands. You can't compute stats based on all the hands someone plays over their poker career and call them "winner" or "loser" because their winrate at one end of the graph will be substantially different than their winrate at the other.

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For most people, I think I'd agree, but I can't imagine fgators actually getting better at poker.

[iron81]

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For most people, I think I'd agree, but I can't imagine fgators actually getting better at poker.

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He was winning for his last 200-300 thousand hands. Like I said before, it looks like he's taken the time to improve his game, get more aggressive and become a winning player.

[FGators]

Nath,

I'm not a losing player if it wasn't for running horribly and I'll never admit it. There is nothing glaring in my stats outside of the c-bet frequency and frankly I do a lot of stuff with flops that get me decent action on later streets.

Should I cbet more? Yes, and in fact I can say with full confidence that I've increased that in the last few months.

How much of an effect has it had? It has had an effect, but not a huge one and if it was 70% I cannot say with confidence that my winrate would be that much larger. Let's face it...at $1/2 NL nobody folds...people call with millions of draws and don't fold pairs. Is it good to charge draws and will you make money when they don't get there and they call down? Absolutely.

But look at the cases of trying to push a 64/11 off of middle pair or top pair when you have King high into an ace high board...thats never gonna happen.

[Triumph36]

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For most people, I think I'd agree, but I can't imagine fgators actually getting better at poker.

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He was winning for his last 200-300 thousand hands. Like I said before, it looks like he's taken the time to improve his game, get more aggressive and become a winning player.

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Winning how much? If you won 1ptbb/100 over 250,000 hands, that's $10,000. Is he up that much, even?