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#61
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You underestimate both the value of fold equity and of overrepresenting your hand. A simple continuation bet accomplishes both of these things. In NL Hold'Em, a CB is the most profitable opportunity for bluffing, which I have no doubt you realize. A hand such as this one provides you many +EV situations to overrepresent your hand, and generate fold equity, while still having outs that you can be confident in that can win you a big pot.
Heres an example. You raise 3.5bb UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. One person calls, doesn't really matter who, everyone else folds. Flop comes something like 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. Your opponent has something like 88-JJ. Its either checked to you or you are first to act, and you bet 3/4 pot. He raises you big. You push. Either you win the pot right there without a showdown, which you will a lot of the time, or if he decides to call, you have a coinflip with all of that dead money in the middle. Good scenario either way. If he doesn't believe you in this situation, surely he won't when you flop a great hand on a board of 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] or 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or similar, as he certainly cannot put you on what you have and you are representing the same exact thing you were in the other situation which he didn't believe or wasn't good enough to realize (even though you may not necessarily play this hand the same way as you DON'T want to generate as much fold equity). Another example could be with the same hand. Lets say he calls your CB in the 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] situation. You turn a 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. You just picked up more outs, and you are now 38% with only one card to come vs something like J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]. When you fire that large second barrel on the turn, you are pretty much representing a big pair, and you will be able to fold out many hands, with a lot of equity to fall back on in case they do get stubborn (which they often will, no doubt). However, if he calls, the pot on the river will be something like 60bb's, and he has to realize that he may be forced to call a big river bet as well. By the threat of that larger river bet being there, your turn bet is exercising a LOT more leverage than just the amount you are shooting at him. Hell, you could turn an ace and win a small/medium pot as it will generally stall the hands I mentioned. Or you could turn a flush, or straight as well, which will happen a decent % of the time. Sure, the vast majority of the time you flop nothing, but the fact of the matter is, the CB alone will often work enough of the time to show a profit based on pot odds, and your hand's equity and various options it provides you make up for the situations in which it doesn't. Even though a hand like ATo is a stronger hand when looked at in isolation, it doesn't provide you with nearly as much in terms of flexibility/possibilities/opportunities. |
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#62
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very good post AJ...very good.
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#63
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Lestat, the reason for playing/value of suited aces in no limit is much different than it is in limit. [/ QUOTE ] But wouldn't the main value be for it's nut flush potential? I don't see much value in making a pair of aces. Especially after you've raised UTG pre-flop and got called. In limit, this hand plays well in short-handed or steal situations, primarily because of it's big card strength. What value (or reasons for raising this hand UTG in NL), am I missing? [/ QUOTE ] In addition to what has already been said, in limit being suited gives you another chance to win the pot, and when you make the flush you might get in an extra bet. In NL that extra bet has the potential to be someone's entire stack. If ATo wins 50% against your opponent's range and ATs wins 55%, then ATs is not going to have gross winnings 10% larger than ATo, because those extra 5% are going to include some huge pots. |
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#64
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Lestat, the reason for playing/value of suited aces in no limit is much different than it is in limit. [/ QUOTE ] But wouldn't the main value be for it's nut flush potential? I don't see much value in making a pair of aces. Especially after you've raised UTG pre-flop and got called. In limit, this hand plays well in short-handed or steal situations, primarily because of it's big card strength. What value (or reasons for raising this hand UTG in NL), am I missing? [/ QUOTE ] In addition to what has already been said, in limit being suited gives you another chance to win the pot, and when you make the flush you might get in an extra bet. In NL that extra bet has the potential to be someone's entire stack. If ATo wins 50% against your opponent's range and ATs wins 55%, then ATs is not going to have gross winnings 10% larger than ATo, because those extra 5% are going to include some huge pots. [/ QUOTE ] I understand what you're saying, but do you think this will be the case heads-up? Raising limits the field cutting down potential customers who might be able to pay you off. Now granted, this is absolutely a limit mentality. Maybe it doesn't work the same in NL, because so many more pots are won on the flop with the first bet. My question is, when you cut the field down with a hand like this, you're not likely to win a very big pot. But there is the danger of being severely dominated by another ace. So what exactly are you trying to accomplish with a pre-flop raise out of position? Please understand, I don't know enough about NL to debate this with you. I'm just trying to understand. |
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#65
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Excellent reply AJ! Very informative! That makes a ton of sense. I have to embarrass myself with one question though...
What is CB? Do you mean semi-bluff? Thanks again. Excellent quality post! I'm gonna like it here. |
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#66
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[ QUOTE ]
My question is, when you cut the field down with a hand like this, you're not likely to win a very big pot. [/ QUOTE ] When you cut the field down and maintain initiative, you also greatly increase the chance you will take that small/medium pot postflop. The fact of the matter is, that initiative lets you fold out those aces that are dominating you a large % of the time. You fold out better hands a lot, and although you won't win a big pot very often, you will occasionally. Like I said in my other post: "the CB alone will often work enough of the time to show a profit based on pot odds, and your hand's equity and various options it provides you make up for the situations in which it doesn't" You coming in raising sets up +EV situations post-flop. |
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#67
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CB aka Continuation Bet is simply a postflop bet that follows up on your preflop aggression.
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#68
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Right. I posted this before readin your other post. One thing I'm finding about NL is that you do have quite a bit of fold equity on the flop. Much more so than in limit. This alone, disputes a lot of what I've been saying. Thanks.
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#69
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Duh... I'll get these down.
I had to ask the other day what ai meant! [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img] |
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