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#61
05-09-2007, 05:57 AM
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Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)
[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure most of you guys have seen this but to all the guys that don't think hock can win 1BB/100, does this change your mind? Can his results here really be attributed to variance, just curious? [/ QUOTE ] Well, over that sample we have a standard error of around 0.4, so within two std errors his win rate would be between 0.2BB/100 and 1.8BB/100 or thereabouts. There's a 5% chance it's even outside those bounds, and 5% is not negligible. So yeah, it could just be variance. The trouble is, it could always just be variance. But in all likelihood he's a winner in these games - we just don't know how much of one - and he has clearly been running quite bad lately! Guy. 
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#63
05-09-2007, 01:40 PM
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Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)
[ QUOTE ]
seriously, does anyone have any data on foxyplayer? i have no idea how i have done. [/ QUOTE ] up 45k, 0.53bb/100, running hotter than god in trips/straights/flushes/boats Your also up 11k on doughnutz Sample is 34k
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#66
05-09-2007, 04:56 PM
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Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)
Not to be an [censored] Hock but making it past the flop on this hand we just played was pretty bad
10Gunman: posts small blind $100 doughnutz: posts big blind $200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to PapaWarbucks [Ks Kd] patrikskjold: raises $200 to $400 Baffa: folds AlexSem: folds PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $600 10Gunman: calls $500 AlexSem said, "mike" doughnutz: raises $200 to $800 Betting is capped patrikskjold: calls $400 PapaWarbucks: calls $200 10Gunman: calls $200 *** FLOP *** [3d 8d 7c] AlexSem said, "that cd no goot [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]" 10Gunman: checks doughnutz: bets $200 patrikskjold: calls $200 PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $400 10Gunman: calls $400 doughnutz: calls $200 patrikskjold: raises $200 to $600 PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $800 Betting is capped 10Gunman: folds doughnutz: calls $400 patrikskjold: calls $200 *** TURN *** [3d 8d 7c] [5h] doughnutz: checks PapaWarbucks said, "it ul for you?" patrikskjold: checks PapaWarbucks: bets $400 doughnutz: calls $400 patrikskjold: calls $400 *** RIVER *** [3d 8d 7c 5h] [Qd] doughnutz: checks patrikskjold: checks PapaWarbucks: checks *** SHOW DOWN *** doughnutz: shows [Kh Ac] (high card Ace) patrikskjold: mucks hand PapaWarbucks: shows [Ks Kd] (a pair of Kings) PapaWarbucks collected $7195 from pot
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#67
05-09-2007, 04:58 PM
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Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)
[ QUOTE ]
PLEASE TELL ME BABYHAN IS NOT A WINNING PLAYER THOSE STATS JUST BLEW MY MIND [/ QUOTE ] I don't care if he is or not, cuz I'm up a zillion on him lifetime and think he sucks. I think his style of play can beat a lot of people in the games he plays.
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#68
05-09-2007, 06:32 PM
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Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)
[ QUOTE ]
Not to be an [censored] Hock but making it past the flop on this hand we just played was pretty bad 10Gunman: posts small blind $100 doughnutz: posts big blind $200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to PapaWarbucks [Ks Kd] patrikskjold: raises $200 to $400 Baffa: folds AlexSem: folds PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $600 10Gunman: calls $500 AlexSem said, "mike" doughnutz: raises $200 to $800 Betting is capped patrikskjold: calls $400 PapaWarbucks: calls $200 10Gunman: calls $200 *** FLOP *** [3d 8d 7c] AlexSem said, "that cd no goot [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]" 10Gunman: checks doughnutz: bets $200 patrikskjold: calls $200 PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $400 10Gunman: calls $400 doughnutz: calls $200 patrikskjold: raises $200 to $600 PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $800 Betting is capped 10Gunman: folds doughnutz: calls $400 patrikskjold: calls $200 *** TURN *** [3d 8d 7c] [5h] doughnutz: checks PapaWarbucks said, "it ul for you?" patrikskjold: checks PapaWarbucks: bets $400 doughnutz: calls $400 patrikskjold: calls $400 *** RIVER *** [3d 8d 7c 5h] [Qd] doughnutz: checks patrikskjold: checks PapaWarbucks: checks *** SHOW DOWN *** doughnutz: shows [Kh Ac] (high card Ace) patrikskjold: mucks hand PapaWarbucks: shows [Ks Kd] (a pair of Kings) PapaWarbucks collected $7195 from pot [/ QUOTE ] why no river bet?
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#69
05-09-2007, 06:35 PM
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Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)
Cuz they had AK and T9? I didn't think there were hands that were going to pay me off unless I was beat and I thought there was a good chance one of them was trying to checkraise a flush, since big-dumb PapaWarbucks always bets when checked to.
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#70
05-09-2007, 06:38 PM
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Re: MONSTER variance (w/ graphs)
[ QUOTE ]
Cuz they had AK and T9? I didn't think there were hands that were going to pay me off unless I was beat and I thought there was a good chance one of them was trying to checkraise a flush, since big-dumb PapaWarbucks always bets when checked to. [/ QUOTE ] if you say so. btw i was just sweating and saw that royal with AQs in the 20bb pot. got damn you run good. what did socutiesf have?
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