The best 9-1 shot ever!!!

[pokerplayer28]

I thought you would learn she's not a good buy when she had her second best performace 2 days ago and her value went down. Same thing will probably happen this week she'll have a decent performance her price will rise a bit but then when everyone realizes shes almost a lock to go home itll drop again.

[GrannyMae]

[ QUOTE ]
Ummm....Vegan...if this was Groundhog Day and we could run the next month over 19 times, I can't even envision one of those 19 times having LaKisha be in the final two, let alone winning it. It'll be a big upset if she makes it through next week, and an astronomical upset if she makes the finals.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is this bold statement based on?

DI can't pick the eliminated contestants, but this board is full of fortune tellers??

[thing85]

I wouldn't call it a big upset if Lakisha makes the top 3. Granted, she's the favorite to go home this week, but a disastrous performance by Blake or Jordin combined with a spectacular Lakisha performance could be the right mix to cause her to last until the top 3. I wouldn't bet on it though. Regardless, I don't think she's a good buy because no one here is willing to bet up the price enough to make you a profit. Unless you think she's going to win this thing (and I'd probably need about 40 to 1 to make that bet), I wouldn't buy her.

On the other hand, I think Melinda is currently undervalued at 39 and Jordin overvalued at 46. Likewise, I think Blake is undervalued (slightly) at 16. IMO, with the market closed as long as it was, I don't think it has adequately adjusted for the performances given last week.

[thing85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ummm....Vegan...if this was Groundhog Day and we could run the next month over 19 times, I can't even envision one of those 19 times having LaKisha be in the final two, let alone winning it. It'll be a big upset if she makes it through next week, and an astronomical upset if she makes the finals.

[/ QUOTE ]

what is this bold statement based on?

DI can't pick the eliminated contestants, but this board is full of fortune tellers??

[/ QUOTE ]

Here's my main statement for why Lakisha can't win:

Melinda fan base > Lakisha fan base

[P(Lakisha performances > Melinda performances) * Fans willing to switch to Lakisha over Melinda + Lakisha's current fan base] < Melinda's fan base - those who switch

[pokerplayer28]

I agree with every bit of that, you can see melinda and blake are undervalued and jordin over valued by going to intrade.

Right now on intrade melinda is going for 39 blake 16 and Jordin 41 the only thing holding blake and Melinda from rising and Jordin from falling is the extremes on the wsex market. Given time though the wsex market should correct itself to about
Jordin 38-43
Melinda 37-42
Blake 14-17
Lak 4-6 3-5 if not for vegan

[pokerplayer28]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't call it a big upset if Lakisha makes the top 3. Granted, she's the favorite to go home this week, but a disastrous performance by Blake or Jordin combined with a spectacular Lakisha performance could be the right mix to cause her to last until the top 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

With all the Phlake and Cake fans there is no chance Blake goes home next, Melinda will probably get most of Phils votes and Jordin will get most of whats left of Chris' votes, all I see Lakisha gaining is the VFTW vote which is proven every year to be worthless at this stage.

So its either melinda or Jordin that have to go to save Lakisha but if that happens I dont see those fans moving over to someone who should have gone instead of there favorite. Things just arnt lining up very well for a lakisha win.

[mynamewastaken]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't call it a big upset if Lakisha makes the top 3. Granted, she's the favorite to go home this week, but a disastrous performance by Blake or Jordin combined with a spectacular Lakisha performance could be the right mix to cause her to last until the top 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

With all the Phlake and Cake fans there is no chance Blake goes home next, Melinda will probably get most of Phils votes and Jordin will get most of whats left of Chris' votes, all I see Lakisha gaining is the VFTW vote which is proven every year to be worthless at this stage.

So its either melinda or Jordin that have to go to save Lakisha but if that happens I dont see those fans moving over to someone who should have gone instead of there favorite. Things just arnt lining up very well for a lakisha win.

[/ QUOTE ]

If Lakisha can make it one more week her price will at least double imo. She's probably the best buy on the board atm.

[Dunkman]

I'm not saying that Lakisha at 19-1 is a bad deal. All I'm saying is that I think Vegan needs an intervention...why are you doing this to yourself? I mean I know sometimes you have to embrace the variance, but this is nuts. I wish you much luck my friend. I'm assuming at this point you can retire if Lakisha wins?

[TheVegan]

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Regardless, I don't think she's a good buy because no one here is willing to bet up the price enough to make you a profit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hey I am quite happy if no one ever buys her. I am not now nor am I planning on selling her if she does advance and or skyrockets in price. I am in until the finish. I will take everything I can at 19-1 before her performance. I am willing to go down with the ship! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

[TheVegan]

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....all I see Lakisha gaining is the VFTW vote which is proven every year to be worthless at this stage.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can not believe she is their choice. That's absurd! Is that true???