EPT Monte Carlo Trip Report (3rd and Final Part)

[Jurollo]

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I think Adam's a good kid and all but this whole thread has given me a headache. There is way too much ego in this thread and anyone who says this was a good call is off. Adam, you know how to play poker, this is not a good call.

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umm obv a great call, what are u talking about?

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With results it isn't even *that* great of a call...

Blinds 200/400/50

50k stack if he folds....

Board: Qs 4h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.828% 52.83% 00.00% 523 0.00 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 47.172% 47.17% 00.00% 467 0.00 { 5s3d }

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That aside, there is an incredible amount of understated arrogance in this post Adam, thats not like you, I am hoping a little attention from reporters hasn't changed you this much.

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The 53% win percentage is well above the 39% he needs to beat pot odds.

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Are you leveling me here betgo? Pot odds don't mean that much when you are calling a bet of this size this deepstacked, you know this.

[ASPoker8]

wow ppl are so stupid.

[ASPoker8]

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You're at a table you've been able to completely dominate for the entire day. There's only one player at the table with any real skill to worry about and you've got position on him. You've built a sizeable stack well above the tournament average. You're 30 minutes away from the end of the day, which means you will have a redraw and likely not have to worry about that dangerous player anymore.

With these conditions, you did the one thing you really shouldn't have done: Got involved in a huge pot with the one player capable of playing at your level with what was, at best, a marginal edge in the hand.

Even if you could see his cards - he turns them over after making the bet and dares you to call him - you should fold. You have a 47% chance of losing a huge portion of your stack and losing the biggest advantage you've had over your table - the threat of being able to knock them out with your big stack. Winning the hand does very little for you since the day is about to end and you wouldn't be able to use that momentum to your advantage.

Poker isn't about ego
Poker isn't about knocking out famous players
Poker is about winning

Plays like this let the first two get in the way of doing the third.

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are...you...serious!?!?!?

selkjghlkwjehn;lq2e?~

??????????

[betgo]

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Even if you could see his cards - he turns them over after making the bet and dares you to call him - you should fold.

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This is wrong. You are a 53% favorite and you are putting in 39% of the money. This is a huge edge that you cannot turn down.

[MEJG2]

I am not questioning the pots odd call with the known information. I am suggesting that AJ is not going to be 53% against his range.

[betgo]

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I think Adam's a good kid and all but this whole thread has given me a headache. There is way too much ego in this thread and anyone who says this was a good call is off. Adam, you know how to play poker, this is not a good call.

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umm obv a great call, what are u talking about?

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With results it isn't even *that* great of a call...

Blinds 200/400/50

50k stack if he folds....

Board: Qs 4h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.828% 52.83% 00.00% 523 0.00 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 47.172% 47.17% 00.00% 467 0.00 { 5s3d }

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That aside, there is an incredible amount of understated arrogance in this post Adam, thats not like you, I am hoping a little attention from reporters hasn't changed you this much.

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The 53% win percentage is well above the 39% he needs to beat pot odds.

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Are you leveling me here betgo? Pot odds don't mean that much when you are calling a bet of this size this deepstacked, you know this.

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I can see that there is some reason to avoid gambling, but a 53% favorite with 39% pot odds is a huge edge. If you win, you become a huge stack.

Since you don't know you are a 53% favorite, it might be reasonable to fold this. However, I think you are ahead of pot odds versus PA's range.

Besides, you want to be the guy who pwned PA and busted him, not the guy who was outplayed by PA.

[wdrzich]

the reason that this call becomes slightly okay is because a.) it was live and b.) A4 and A2 are a strong portion of his range

[sethypooh21]

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It would also have been reasonable to just flat call the first preflop raise with position. Why play a big pot against the other big stack and good player at the table?

[/ QUOTE ]This is a great point, from there I think AJ played the hand a very high level - consider that if OP's read was correct (and it was) then 53 or similar is about the best hand PA would have, and even then, AJ was a money favorite in a pot with a sizable overlay.

HOWEVER, given the read that PA would 4-bet very wide in this spot, I'm not sure what bloating the pot with AJ accomplishes. Given the stack sizes, all-in is both stupid and exploitable.

Finally, I think AJ's equanimity in the whole situation is commendable. He got his money in good, and it didn't work out, it happens, try again next week.

[Exitonly]

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I think Adam's a good kid and all but this whole thread has given me a headache. There is way too much ego in this thread and anyone who says this was a good call is off. Adam, you know how to play poker, this is not a good call.

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umm obv a great call, what are u talking about?

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With results it isn't even *that* great of a call...

Blinds 200/400/50

50k stack if he folds....

Board: Qs 4h 2c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.828% 52.83% 00.00% 523 0.00 { AcJd }
Hand 1: 47.172% 47.17% 00.00% 467 0.00 { 5s3d }


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yea 50k stack if he folds, and a 75k stack on average if he makes the call...

Everyone is showing the small edge over 50/50. So what? As BETGO pointed out, he only needs 39% This is a huge edge he'd be passing up.
(edit: NOT sying PA's range is just this hand, just saying that pointing out he's not a 'HUGE FAVORITE' even when he's right, is pointless. )
Basically, Adam had a strong read about the level patrik was on, and went with it. How can you blame im for doing so? People saying "you played this stupid and you know it" are being [censored] imo, he didnt post this here because he wanted to be judged. he posted it because everyone and their grandmother was asking him to. He likes how he played the hand, and trusts his reasoning/gut at the time.

There are alternative lines (like GOGGLES who just flat calls pf, or like me who probably just [censored] folds to the raise int he first place) but his logic is sound at each decision point i think.

And, I dont see why anyone is bothered that he came off a bit arrogant for once.

[ASPoker8]

Adam needs to call 34K to win an 87K pot.
He needs 39% equity for his call to be neutral (0) EV.
He had 53% equity vs 35.

This is an excellent call in a vacuum, and anyone debating that really needs to think things over before posting again.


In order to argue against the call, I think you guys need to somehow prove that Adam didnt have 39% against PATRIK'S RANGE.


However, a lot of people have close to no idea what they are talking about and its really annoying.

/endrant