ask me about fantasy baseball v.2007

[westside8]

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Unless you have two UTIL slots or a MI slot, you cant keep both Weeks and Utley, as Lee and Morneau will take up your UTIL slot. My list is slightly different:

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Its typical 5x5...but our rosters and starters are much deeper, we have a couple our UTIL and a couple of extra IF spots as well.

[crockpot]

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But wouldn't that make Utley rather valuable? Since there are few stud 2b?

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yes and no. positional depth is tricky to measure because there isn't an established level of average or replacement production, and the dropoff from the best available player at a position to the next one is constantly changing, rather than a smooth curve.

specifically, what i'm saying is that utley's value comes largely from how much better he is than the second and third best guys at his position, rather than the fifteenth and twentieth best guys. this puts him in the somewhat counter-intuitive position of being more valuable in a smaller league.

to take an extreme hypothetical, if you were in a two-team league, utley would be one of the top three picks because the gap between him and any other second basemen is huge. as the league gets bigger, his value over the replacement level increases more gradually than that of other players.

furthermore, the more you go down the position lists, the more they converge in fantasy value. the 30th best second baseman and 30th best first basemen will have much more similar numbers than the fifth best at each.

catchers are not exempted from this effect, but there are 24 versus 18 at other positions, and there are fewer full-time catchers than full-timers at other positions, so the dropoff at the bottom is particularly steep. the worst starting first baseman in your league should be somebody serviceable like kevin youkilis, while the worst catcher might be brad ausmus or damian miller.

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I feel confident that I could get Utley with the seventh pick, and then comeback and get Mauer with my next pick. I could lock up two traditionally "weak" positions. Or should I just go with Cabrara, Ortiz, or Crawford and then pick up a pitcher with my next pick?

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of course you shouldn't waste your first round pick on a guy you're fairly certain to get in the second round.

i don't think you should ever go into a draft planning to take a certain position with your pick in round x. the early rounds of a straight draft are about maximizing value. worry about balance through later rounds and trading. this is to say nothing of how pitchers are less predictable than hitters and thus should usually be taken lower in the draft.

[g-bebe]

If you seem to be the authority on fantasy baseball leagues (not that I'm not an opinionated individual and have my own ideas), I just want to hear a few pieces of advice:

For a standard fantasy league (not that I know what "standard" means here, I'm talking about a typical H2H or rotisserie Yahoo league of 12-16 players), what order of players would you be on the lookout for, in terms of position? By this, I mean what positions would you look to fill immediately? Obviuosly you'd take the best player available or one you deem the best, but given an order, how would you rank importance of positions? OF>P?

What do you think of the Rockies sluggers? (Holliday, Atkins, Helton, Hawpe) [I thought Atkins was very underrated last year]

Sorry if these have been asked before... a little too many posts to read through.

EDIT: Here's one more thing: I've been reading in a few places that there are a clear top 7 overall fantasy picks, broken into three groups, which are as follows:
1-2:
Albert Pujols
Johan Santana
3-4-5:
Carlos Beltran
Alex Rodriguez
Jose Reyes
6-7:
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
(with Vlad Guerrero and Miguel Cabrera flip-flopping in 8-9)

To what extent do you agree/disagree with this?

[crockpot]

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If you seem to be the authority on fantasy baseball leagues (not that I'm not an opinionated individual and have my own ideas), I just want to hear a few pieces of advice:

For a standard fantasy league (not that I know what "standard" means here, I'm talking about a typical H2H or rotisserie Yahoo league of 12-16 players), what order of players would you be on the lookout for, in terms of position? By this, I mean what positions would you look to fill immediately? Obviuosly you'd take the best player available or one you deem the best, but given an order, how would you rank importance of positions? OF>P?

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'importance' of position is not really a useful term. if you judge that an outfielder and a second baseman have the same overall value after adjusting for position, you should be indifferent between the two.

in terms of positional depth this year, in order of most scarce to least, with approximately sized gaps:

C



2B


SS
3B
1B
OF

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What do you think of the Rockies sluggers? (Holliday, Atkins, Helton, Hawpe) [I thought Atkins was very underrated last year]

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holliday and atkins should retain most of their gains. coors was less of a hitter's park last year than usual, and it's likely this will rebound, balancing the effects of their natural regression. they are also at good ages.

it seems clear that helton is no longer a 30+ hr hitter. hawpe is really blah corner guy, but if he plays full time he could generate a line like .280-90-25-100-5 thanks to coors and the high-OBP guys ahead of him. one of the dangers, though, is that he gets forced out of the lineup since his real-world value is marginal. fortunately, the rockies are not bursting at the seams with outfield prospects, so he should be safe for 2007.

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EDIT: Here's one more thing: I've been reading in a few places that there are a clear top 7 overall fantasy picks, broken into three groups, which are as follows:
1-2:
Albert Pujols
Johan Santana
3-4-5:
Carlos Beltran
Alex Rodriguez
Jose Reyes
6-7:
Ryan Howard
Chase Utley
(with Vlad Guerrero and Miguel Cabrera flip-flopping in 8-9)

To what extent do you agree/disagree with this?


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i don't think anyone should be taking santana over pujols. he is great, but the year-to-year consistency for hitters is so much better than for pitchers, and his injury risk is greater.

i wouldn't take beltran in the top 5. you can't pretend 2005 never happened. ron shandler and pecota take very different stances on his 2007 projection. a-rod is also too high for my tastes; i'd rather take soriano or cabrera.

[suppasonic]

I'd advise you to NEVER draft Mauer anywhere before the beginning of the 4th round. It really is just bad fantasy baseball sense. I'd probably take Utley in the middle of the second.

Draft value and player value are different.


G-Bebe: Its a terrible idea to think of what position you want to fill per round. Drafts never go the way you think you will. If you plan on taking OF in the 1st, SS in the 2nd, etc., you will probably lose. I draft best available player, by all means, in the first 3 or 4 rounds, upon which positional scarcity then starts to take escalating effect, and by the last 5 or 6 rounds Im just drafting by position.

The top group of fantasy players are

1: Pujols

and everyone else:
Reyes
Soriano
Crawford
A-Rod
Howard
Ortiz
MCab
Vlad.

A few (MCab, Soriano) I probably am more likely to take 2-5 than others (Ortiz, Vlad), but really 2-9 are almost entirely equal.

[THAY3R]

Doesn't seem like there's enough love in this thread for Jose Reyes.

I think I always take him #2, and maybe even #1, but then again I'm used to deeper leagues where steals are harder to come by, and also keeper leagues.

[suppasonic]

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Doesn't seem like there's enough love in this thread for Jose Reyes.

I think I always take him #2, and maybe even #1, but then again I'm used to deeper leagues where steals are harder to come by, and also keeper leagues.

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There really is no arguement to be made to take pujols over Reyes in any 5x5 league except ones that start five SS.

[westside8]

Pujols is right probably at the top of all fantasy players that I don't think there is a doubt he should be taken 1st overall in all leagues unless a breaking news come out sometime during ST. However, with that said, does anyone foresee a guy like Howard reach the Pujols standard and be a clear cut #1 (well..it will be #1/2) choice with no drop off?

As far as Reyes go, he has definitely inserted himself as a top 5 pick, but unless there is a heavy concentration on MI, or somehow values of steals are skewed, I can't see how Reyes can be drafted above Pujols.

[wisehandpoker]

Shortstop is incredibly deep right now with Reyes, Jeter, Tejada, Rollins, Hall, Hanley, Guillen etc etc. I don't think you can think of passing Pujols for Reyes as a result.

[crockpot]

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Shortstop is incredibly deep right now with Reyes, Jeter, Tejada, Rollins, Hall, Hanley, Guillen etc etc. I don't think you can think of passing Pujols for Reyes as a result.

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very true.

also working against reyes:

- steals are also more fickle from year to year than power numbers.
- reyes really blew away his projections last year. pujols basically matched his.