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#61
10-21-2006, 06:57 PM
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Re: Iowa u15.5 @ Michigan
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Iowa u15.5 @ Michigan good until -135 I was leaning toward Michigan on the spread and then it occured to me the real value here is Iowa's total being low. Iowa fulfilled my constant calling for them being overrated last week. This week is a different beast. Iowa has put up some impressive totals all year. They are averaging over 29 ppg. But, sometimes the numbers lie. Iowa has only faced two defenses in the top80 (in terms of scoring defense); Ohio State and Montana (who is up there from the weaker schedule). Iowa played a very good game against Ohio State and put up 17 at home. I expect more struggles against a Michigan D that might just be the best in the country. MIchigan is #1 verse the run, allowing below 33 ypg!!!! I've stated before how Iowa doesn't have the ability to stretch opposing defenses. It looks to be a nightmare situation verse a MIchigan team, that is near the top in sacks and tfl, who will bring everyone up to pressure and terrorize the Hawkeyes. Michigan allowed 7 v Vandy, 17 v C Mich, 21 @ Notre Dame, 13 v Wisconsin, 14 @ Minny, 13 v Michigan St, and 10 @ Penn St. That's a pretty decent lineup of good competition all held down by the Maize and Blue. The only 2 teams to get above 15.5 did it in garbage time, one of those being a vertical attacking, pass happy Notre Dame team. I don't think Iowa has the tools for explosive plays to score, even in garbage time. [/ QUOTE ] Michigan 20 Iowa 6 the spread clawed it's way there, too. Iowa's offense just cannot create big plays. 9-3 week 8 
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#64
10-21-2006, 07:02 PM
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Re: Iowa u15.5 @ Michigan
if you lose the bet, you'll jump off the nearest bridge
It pretty much refers to me laying big odds on 'sure things' when I use it
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#66
10-21-2006, 09:12 PM
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LSU/Fresno ST
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Moneyline, $1200 to win $20...LMAO [/ QUOTE ]I just made the exact same play. So, if you lose you will have someone to cry with. lol. [/ QUOTE ] damn...I didn't check the weather on this one....monsoons bad for big favorites -it introduces more variance
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#67
10-21-2006, 09:56 PM
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Re: Oregon St -2.5 @ Arizona U38
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Oregon St -2.5 @ Arizona good to -4.5 Oregon St/Arizona U38 good to 37.5 Another game where one team's strength is another team's weakness. Arizona's Defense is above average (44th in total yards and 50th in points per game), but quite susceptible to the pass (86th in pass efficiency defense). The Beavers look to establish the past first and foremost. They are 24th in passing yards and 45th in passing efficiency. The run game is not very good for the Beavers (73rd in the nation) and Arizona's rush defense is stout (28th playing a good schedule). The Beavers will establish the pass and have enough success to get around 20. The Arizona offense is bloody awful. Every week, it just continues. Here is the wildcats thus far: Sat, Sep 2 Brigham Young W 16-13 -- Sat, Sep 9 at (8) LSU L 3-45 Audio Sat, Sep 16 Stephen F. Austin W 28-10 Audio Sat, Sep 23 (3) USC L 3-20 Audio Sat, Sep 30 Washington L 10-21 Audio Sat, Oct 7 at UCLA L 7-27 Audio Sat, Oct 14 at Stanford W 20-7 Audio Per the total, only one Arizona game this year is over 34 points. The Beavers defense has good numbers, but their schedule hasn't been too tough. What is really exciting about the Beavers is they have held bad and mediocre offenses down. The Wildcats are the epitome of a bad offense. Sagarin predictore has Oregon State as nearly 11 points better and Dunkel has the Beavers about 9.4 points better. Even playing on the road, the Beavers look ready, especially so after breaking through for a good 10-point road win at Washington last week. [/ QUOTE ] Oregon St 17 Arizona 10 winner winner game went almost exactly as expected [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] 11-3 Week8
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#69
10-21-2006, 10:04 PM
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Re: Colorado/Oklahoma U39.5
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Late Pick! Colorado/Oklahoma U39.5 the wind is expected to be huge during the first half in Norman. That means Paul Thompson, who has been improving, cannot pass his way to help the team overcome the first game without Peterson. The Sooners now face a great rush defense under pretty bad circumstances. [/ QUOTE ] Oklahoma 24 colorado 3 winner I was afraid watching Thompson's first drive down the field, but the rest of the game went as I expected. 12-3 week8
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#70
10-21-2006, 10:46 PM
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Re: Clemson -7 v G Tech
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Clemson -7 v G Tech I held off posting this, because there is alot of resistance to this pick from some very good handicappers. Nevertheless, I like the value here. The key IMO is the Clemson pass rush on the Yellow Jackets will be too much. Clemson's stats are overrated by a couple creampuff opponents (FAU anyone), so I won't quote them as evidence. Let's just say that Clemson has been able to overcome numerous early injuries on the defensive side of the ball and emerged as big play animals. Here's a classic test of Reggie Ball to not make the big mistakes. I don't think he accomplishes that. Even with the beast known as Calvin Johnson, I see G Tech's offense sputtering. I almost expect a pick 6 in this game. The power rankings I like (Sagarin predictor, Dunkel, and my own) all give the edge to Clemson at home here. I gotta go with that. [/ QUOTE ] Clemson 31 G Tech 7 Clemson's defense did what I expected, but I don't think anyone anticipated the rushing game they brought. Big Winner 13-3 week 8
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