Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?

[J.A.K.]

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There's no chance in hell I fold this hand. Ever.

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If my math is right, there was ~4% chance of Jamie having a higher FD and <8% that either Binger or Gold had one. It's a silly read that overcomes 96%. Folding for 2nd ok. Fear of FD...naaah.

It's more sickening to watch these because the deck was hitting him(JG) in the face AND people were laying down +EV shots to chip up.

[betgo]

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There's no chance in hell I fold this hand. Ever.

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If my math is right, there was ~4% chance of Jamie having a higher FD and <8% that either Binger or Gold had one. It's a silly read that overcomes 96%. Folding for 2nd ok. Fear of FD...naaah.

It's more sickening to watch these because the deck was hitting him(JG) in the face AND people were laying down +EV shots to chip up.

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You really can't do the math based on their chance of having cards of your suit preflop. Since they are putting the money in, it is more likely one of them has a flush draw.

However, it was an awful weak/tight fold.

[jga1635]

I think everyone is missing his biggest mistake, which is something Jamie Gold did so well. He didn't take his time and try to figure out the situation. Take at least three minutes to consider the situation and where you are at exactly. I watched it live and he folded in short order just like the ESPN broadcast showed. Also, I don't know that Binger calls if Wasicka calls. At the end of the day GOLD way over played this and I think Wasicka lacked the experince to determine where he was at and it makes sense that he folded. I just think a majority of internet players make that call including Frieberg, Binger, and Friedman, but he still had a chance head up and he did pick up six million dollars. Can we really fault him???

[Rickyroodido]

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Can we really fault him???

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I dont know the guy so I dont care, but if I did I would shot him.

[21times20]

i think people are really underestimating wasicka's read on gold, i watched the live feed and every bit of my poorly developed poker instinct thought it was obvious gold was on a draw

do you really want to make this call with an 8-high draw knowing in your heart gold is probably going to turn over something like Q2 suited?

[mattmcegg]

Saw it tonight, seemed from his body language he knew he should have called but he didnt have the 'chutzpa' if you know what I mean. I think also that if he would have thought for a little bit longer about the hand he would have made the correct call. All he did was stand up, say "Gross" and flicked it in the muck. That was probably the biggest pot of the tournament, and clearly the most he had $Ev wise.

[Rickyroodido]

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do you really want to make this call with an 8-high draw knowing in your heart gold is probably going to turn over something like Q2 suited?

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I dont think you can put gold on a flushdraw with any kind of certainty. Typical weaktight excuse to fold.

The fold makes me sick... He should have folded preflop if he cant handle a dreamflop.

[21times20]

i think wasicka put gold on a draw with a great deal of certainty, maybe he made a mistake not considering the possibility that gold might have a straight draw too, but understandable seeing as he himself had 78 and it's just hard to include 34 in someone's range of hands, even knowing how loose they are

of course he can't know that gold is on a flush draw, but he can think that there is a very good possibility that he doesn't have nearly as many outs as he thought he did when he first saw the flop

it's easy to sit here after the fact and calculate pot equity against different hand ranges, but he's sitting at the final table and will make $2 million more dollars if he folds and gold luckboxes his way to busting out another player, after which he gets to play heads up against someone im sure he felt he had a skill and experience advantage over

i don't see why everyone thinks this is such an instant call if they were in his shoes, he has 8 high, his tournament life is on the line, and his read is that not all of his drawing outs(which are all he has) are clean

i haven't been playing a lot lately so maybe im missing something, but even if all his outs are clean, does he ever have less than a 45% chance of busting out of the tournament here?

im not trying to say that in a vacuum, or even in this situation, that folding was mathematically correct, but i think people are ignoring a lot of factors when they say it is an easy call

[LearnedfromTV]

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i don't see why everyone thinks this is such an instant call if they were in his shoes, he has 8 high, his tournament life on the line, and his read is that not all of his drawing outs(which are all he has) are clean

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There it is! Only took 67 posts.

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i haven't been playing a lot lately so maybe im missing something, but even if all his outs are clean, does he ever have less than a 45% chance of busting out of the tournament here?

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Yes. When Binger calls (well, he still has 45% of busting, but often in second)

Also. When Binger folds and Gold has 43o.

And 45% chance of busting of pretty sweet when you (almost) triple up like 50 of the other 55%.

[WaimanaloSlim]

Even if Gold has the hand you don't want him to have - a higher flush draw - but you think that Binger will call, which I do, then you've locked up second and you're FREEROLLING. You don't care if Gold busts you both with a bigger flush draw. You'll still get second. The difference is that you gave yourself a shot at a big stack heads up.

From Wasicka's point of view, do you think Binger folds the rest of his 5.5M after he's bet 3.5M and now he's getting 3.7 to 1 on his money? I think he's calling if all he's got are overcards, anything that paired the board, or a pair like 9-9 or worse that is uncomfortable at a 10-high board.

But payout ladder considerations, especially when it's a $2M jump, can certainly convince someone to make a bad fold. I've certainly made folds I hate because of the payout ladder, but I like to think I'd call here.