Why can't Adam Dunn hit?

[THAY3R]

PHB, you can not judge whether or not you can develop a players power. Have you ever been an MLB Weight Trainer?

[prohornblower]

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However, consider that Hitter Two will be in scoring position (2nd or 3rd base) or have hit a home run more than twice as many times as Hitter One will.


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I already told someone else that this is what you were considering, the big inning. I understand that part of your argument.

How do the numbers change if the runner is on 3rd? I should have said 3rd because when I gave the example I was meaning that a single would score the runner. I think the runner scores on 2nd on a single (with 2 outs...moving on contact) more than 50% of the time. I don't know where you pulled that number from other than thin air, but you are right, they don't always score from 2nd.

[HLMencken]

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Seriously, answer this question. Don't come up with some situation to prove a point, straight out answer the question.

Hitter One: .300/.380/.400
Hitter Two: .235/.380/.550

Who is better?

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Who steals more and who goes 1st-to-third more and who breaks up double plays more?

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Ugh. All other things are equal, including steals, speed, defence, position, salary, age and attitude in the clubhouse.

You know it's player 2. So just stop.

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If they are both 23 years old and I'm thinking of signing them for 5 years, then I think player 1 can add some weight and develop power, whereas, if player 2 is only a .230 hitter at this young age, that is a bad sign. His power won't increase much, and his hitting will probably deteriorate.

Oh, this wasn't the answer you were looking for.

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What about .231, .235, .201 from years 25-27?

[prohornblower]

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PHB, you can not judge whether or not you can develop a players power. Have you ever been an MLB Weight Trainer?

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What % of players have LESS power at age 28 than at 23? No, I'm not a weight trainer. I was, but I had to quit to take up MABL playing/coaching full time. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[Jack of Arcades]

BA correlates with productivity well because, on some levels, it correlates with OBP and SLG pretty decently. There's really no reason to use BA to determine value. It will tell you the style of a player, however.

For example, who's more valuable?

Hitter A: .300/.400/.500
Hitter B: .260/.400/.500

Answer? Hitter B, actually, by a couple runs. All the singles from hitter A don't make up for the fact that Hitter B has more XBH.

[THAY3R]

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PHB, you can not judge whether or not you can develop a players power. Have you ever been an MLB Weight Trainer?

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What % of players have LESS power at age 28 than at 23? No, I'm not a weight trainer. I was, but I had to quit to take up MABL playing/coaching full time. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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You can't bring up %'s in this argument.

That would be too ironic [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[prohornblower]

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Hitter A: .300/.400/.500
Hitter B: .260/.400/.500

Answer? Hitter B, actually, by a couple runs. All the singles from hitter A don't make up for the fact that Hitter B has more XBH.

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Where do you guys run these numbers?

(Someone else answer b/c I think JoA has me on ignore)

[kyleb]

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I think the runner scores on 2nd on a single (with 2 outs...moving on contact) more than 50% of the time. I don't know where you pulled that number from other than thin air, but you are right, they don't always score from 2nd.

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The runner probably scores from 2nd more than 50% of the time, but I was just using 50% to make the math easy. Even if you change it to higher values, it doesn't affect the calculations that much - Hitter Two will have a slight disadvantage of scoring that single run, but will always be in scoring position or hit the home run more than twice as much.

If you were to do more math, you could easily figure out that Hitter Two generates more runs by being at-bat in that situation.

So, to realllllllllllllly disprove high OBP/low BA guys from being more valuable, you'd have to say:

"Well, what if a guy was on third with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning of Game Seven of the World Series with a tie score, and everyone on the team is going to be a free agent at the end of the year?"

Okay, fine. In that case, I'll take the .300 hitter.

Otherwise, sabermetrics wins.

[prohornblower]

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PHB, you can not judge whether or not you can develop a players power. Have you ever been an MLB Weight Trainer?

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What % of players have LESS power at age 28 than at 23? No, I'm not a weight trainer. I was, but I had to quit to take up MABL playing/coaching full time. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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You can't bring up %'s in this argument.

That would be too ironic [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

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Did you know a runner scores from 2nd 50% of the time with 2 outs?

I just learned that tonight.

[kyleb]

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Did you know a runner scores from 2nd 50% of the time with 2 outs?

I just learned that tonight.

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I refuted this point above. Even if it's more than 50% (and it probably is), my calculations and argument still trump the idea that Hitter One is better.