Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[Dr. Spaceman]

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I understand why people want an analogy for non poker people to be able to relate to.
Here is why I think the baseball one doesn't work and we should keep searching.

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To clarify, I meant the idea of using analogies extensively is gold, not the specific baseball analogy.

I suggest cricket.

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Righteo.

Darts came to mind for me- but the best I could come up with was a blind man somehow hitting enough triples etc to beat Phil the power. And then I realized I couldn't come up with any method of cheating that made sense for that scenario.
Still searching. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


In a way it reminds me of the Cheers episode where Sam plays chess against Robin Colcord while being wired. But again that fails on many levels.
bah.

Gonna let ideas sit until I wake up and then will do some recliffsnoting.

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How about Battleship as an analogy? DoubleDrag is like a player hitting your ships on every single turn. Over the course of the game you may sink a ship or two, but he will inevitably win.

[Trogdor!]

WTF at the comments of that article.

They are having a discussion about psychics FFS someone tell these morons psychics dont exist

also the stat analysis is the probability of wolfs phantom pro not DOUBLEDRAG so isn't really relevant as DOUBLEDRAGS sd would be much higher

DD play 90/70 so we should get a good estimate from a pro at what bb/100 mean he SHOULD be at or what we think it SHOULD be at assuming he is not cheating (the more conservatite the better ie highest estimate) then hypothesist test the sample we have. My bet is hes bb/100 falls about a million points outside the rejection region

[POTPISSER]

Hi, POTPISSER here, how's everyone doing? Here is my graph -



I wonder would someone mind telling me am I liable to be sued/charged with fraud for cheating these people or is this impossible because the site is based offshore? I take it that is the reason this hasn't been brought to the police yet as I am sure fraud of this magnitude would mean jail time in many juristictions.

[Trogdor!]

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I understand why people want an analogy for non poker people to be able to relate to.
Here is why I think the baseball one doesn't work and we should keep searching.

[/ QUOTE ]

To clarify, I meant the idea of using analogies extensively is gold, not the specific baseball analogy.

I suggest cricket.

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Righteo.

Darts came to mind for me- but the best I could come up with was a blind man somehow hitting enough triples etc to beat Phil the power. And then I realized I couldn't come up with any method of cheating that made sense for that scenario.
Still searching. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]


In a way it reminds me of the Cheers episode where Sam plays chess against Robin Colcord while being wired. But again that fails on many levels.
bah.

Gonna let ideas sit until I wake up and then will do some recliffsnoting.

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How about Battleship as an analogy? DoubleDrag is like a player hitting your ships on every single turn. Over the course of the game you may sink a ship or two, but he will inevitably win.

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thats not a bad anology

WTF U SUNK MY BATTLESHIP WITHOUT MISSING 3 GAMES IN A ROW!!11!!WTFRIGGED21!!!!!@1@!1!@@

[KurtSF]

I'm about 50 posts behind, but please don't use the baseball analogy.


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Maybe also an analogy to another sport--"This is like a player who can't get a hit in A ball suddenly leading the league in hitting in the majors."

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I'm grunching and I don't know if the letter has been sent but this is gold. Analogies, analogies, analogies is key.


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Analagies yes, but pick a good one. The thing is, some schmoe from the minors coming up and tearing up the ball and leading the leading the league in homers happens all the time. ALL the time. Using this analagy with anyone who is familiar with baseball statistics will say "some fish ran hot" rather than "something impossible happened", and I don't think that's what you want.


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I don't like the baseball analogy because there's way less variance in hitting a major league fastball than in poker. The great thing about poker is Joe Shmoe can beat Phil Ivey on any given day.


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Trust me, its the same with baseball. OK, Joe Schmoe can't play because you can't get a contract so you can't get in the game against Roger Clemens. You can't get a contract because you can't beat him 162 times, but on any given day certainly anything can happen. Joe Schmoe could hit a hit off Clemens one time, just as he could beat Phil Ivey one time.

There is actyually a lot of similarity in technical baseball analysis and technical poker analysis. "True talent" = "true winrate", small smaple size issues, dealing with wild variance, pot equity monte carlo simulation = next season monte carlo simulation, etc.

There is a lot of noise in baseball stats. Using the analogy that the things these superuser accounts did in the high stakes games to win hands are like the things a baseball player getting called up does to become a phenom will make it sound like running hot. Trust me.

I've seen the HHs. This is NOT an A-ball hitter leading the league in homeruns.

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You could extend the baseball analogy I used earlier by saying that IF it happened, you would know cheating (i.e., steroids) were involved, which I think is the real point here.

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As apefish pointed out, something like a mediocre player leading the league does not indicate cheating or steroids.

It actually happens often without any cheating going on.

[Trogdor!]

ok going by drags estimate of -20bb and DD rakes up 470bb with a sd of 270 over a sample size of 2. We would have to do a t-distribution as degree of freedom =1 and also@ (moron who thinks he isnt cheating) hes actual sd is going to be much lower then 270 obv

[NobleNobleNoble]

Hi, apologies for contributing to thread as newb.
But in response to this guy 'Flight2Q' who seems be trying to justify the cheaters play in spite of the statistical evidence...
If you go through his other previous posts, you will see on 070307 at 09.02 pm he wrote in a thread on FTP being down.
All he wrote was
"I'm at 375.00 BB/100 today. "
(Is this the same time the cheating was going on? Maybe he just wanted to be cocky and write of his winning on Absolute? I dont know if this helps? maybe he is involved - probably ridiculous, apologise again for disrupting serious thread with stupid speculation.)

[krumeluren]

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i need more popcorn i guess...

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Haha maybe you do. Or maybe you just don't understand variance and how it affect the probability of finding extreme outliers in large datasets. No offense m8, but most people don't so your not alone.

[pineapple888]

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Pineapple, stating that this hand doesn't give any relavency on how doudledrag could make such a horrible and shocking call and somehow be ahead shows your lack of knowledge playing nl cash games.

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Dude, please don't come in here and be a tool.

I am an NL cash pro, and see these kinds of hands every day, because I look for the tables where the idiots play.

Individual hands mean nothing without context.

Feel free to go away now. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[POTPISSER]

I would also like to add that I don't see AP saying anything about this situation beyond the harmless statements they have put out already.
What reason have they got to admit this happened, how will that benefit them? The best thing they can do is do nothing which is what they are doing, doing anything else will only elevate the problem for them. And for the people asking for and independant investigation...lol...do you actually believe that if it came to this, which it won't, with their hole [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] business at stake they would hand over unaltered hand histories that show proof of cheating when they could just as simply change the cheat's cards and send the altered HH instead?