SSNL POKER [cheese] thread AUG PT 2

[BGnight]

Dude, if cardrunners let FGators make a video, do you know how much f***ing money they would make?

Market your fame, boy!!!

[wrschultz]

NH SIR!

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $3/$6 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $973.35
BB: $729.20
UTG: $593.00
CO: $1,347.95
Hero (BTN): $750.25

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $21.00</font>, CO folds, Hero calls $21.00, <font color="red">SB raises to $90.00</font>, 2 folds, Hero calls $69.00

Flop: ($207) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($207) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $174.00</font>, SB calls $174.00

River: ($555) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets all-in for $486.25</font>, SB calls $486.25

Pot Size: $1,527.50 ($2 Rake)

SB had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and LOST (-$750.25)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (a straight, Ten to Ace) and WON (+$775.25)

[BDaws]

[ QUOTE ]
AA, TT. Nothing else.. ever.

[/ QUOTE ]
Okay, well let's assume FG has a similar range for betting the flop as thac and futuredoc. We know it also at least includes KK.

If PurpleJurkle or whatever has the same read many SSNLer's have of FG (that he is relatively straightforward and doesn't get out of line too often), then PJ should know FG's range for betting the flop is narrow, say AA,KK,TT, and maybe QQ.

If that's FG's range, then he is NEVER going to be pushing QQ/JJ there.

FG is getting (96.30+68+270.75)/202.75 or 2.15 to 1 and needs 31.79% equity to breakeven on the call.

Let's assume PJ is never doing this with QQ/JJ because of what I said above. His range is KK+,TT,AsQs.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 18.949% 14.61% 04.34% 1591 472.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 81.051% 76.71% 04.34% 8354 472.50 { KK+, TT, AsQs }


Okay, I guess there are some odd assumptions above, but let's include QQ just for S and G's.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.739% 41.93% 02.81% 7057 472.50 { KdKs }
Hand 1: 55.261% 52.45% 02.81% 8828 472.50 { QQ+, TT, AsQs }


So if you include QQ in this pushing range there, FG made a bad fold. If not, it was a good fold. Also, this is just the info we had from the hand history. Timing tells can be very helpful in the heat of the moment. If he instashoved, I would assume he is more likely to have AA/KK/AsQs and less likely to have QQ, a hand near the bottom of his range, because he might have to think about it for a moment.

So I think the people saying it was a terrible fold are exaggerating a little bit.

[Kowalski]

Damn nice

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]

Okay, well let's assume FG has a similar range for betting the flop as thac and futuredoc. We know it also at least includes KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I was being facetious, I bet with any overpair

[wrschultz]

so its that time of night again. its time for me to ask if anyone wants to do a 1k Stars flip. If theres anyone out there.... please [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

AIM: iambuddyschultz

[futuredoc85]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Okay, well let's assume FG has a similar range for betting the flop as thac and futuredoc. We know it also at least includes KK.

[/ QUOTE ]

FWIW, I was being facetious, I bet with any overpair/[b]top pair/overs that are ahead of shorty's pushing range (if fullstacked villain is capable of calling 3-bets light since he's less likely to make a move in this spot than normal)

[/ QUOTE ]

[wrschultz]

Quick PSA: luckybacon is one unlucky SOB. I flip so rediculously well vs. him and so rediculously bad vs. others.

[BDaws]

Oh, what a waste of a post then. LOL. I was surprised you guys wouldn't bet with even KK-QQ there.

I guess I could edit it before Bilbo tears it apart, but I'm just going to leave it up.

[wrschultz]

[ QUOTE ]
Oh, what a waste of a post then. LOL. I was surprised you guys wouldn't bet with even KK-QQ there.

I guess I could edit it before Bilbo tears it apart, but I'm just going to leave it up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude! You're getting levelled!