three river call/fold decisions

[luckychewy]

Taking this a level higher, you say he won't bet JJ-AA for value, but if he puts you on squarely a naked ten, will he ever bluff with these hands?[img]/images/graemlins/crazy.gif[/img]

[samoleus]

Well, there is no way that he can put me squarely on a ten here. I would play a full house the same way and may or may not play a flush that way. Given that there is no way that he can put me squarely on a ten, I doubt that he would try to bluff with AA-JJ. It is not out of the question, but the likelihood (with Jackal specifically) is small enough that I discounted it.

[luckychewy]

Good point, I stand corrected. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

[KingNeo]

My comment was in no way a negative comment towards you, it was a statement of fact. Like you stated earlier your style of play frequently puts you in situations where difficult decisions are needed. I am sure you play many hands in which you make calls here and lose.

It is a statement of fact that you would have never posted this hand had you lost it. I still have no problems with your logic though on the hand.

[samoleus]

oh sorry - I misunderstood.

[BLdSWtTRs]

I don't know if I could have the discipline to make this fold but I would say most of the time he is ahead. But with the pot odds, I think its a call, but barely.

Good chance Jackal has the flush.

[samoleus]

OK, this one might not have a fair hand to discuss in the forum, because it is so player specific. But that being said, this was the easiest of the three to analyze (though not an easy ultimate decision). Here goes:

I had seen this player open limp from as late as the cutoff (as well as earlier) with 99 and AJ. He was also NOT a creative player - a nit, really. So when he open raises, I can be fairly certain that he has AK, AQ, or AA-TT.

As I mentioned, I have a stack of 27K and have repeatedly shown down big hands - which I believe actually scared him more than made him think that I might make some looser calls. I checked the T-8-8 flop and he bet. He is not making a continuation bet, so now I have him narrowed down to AA-TT. I actually made a bad call here, since the only hand I am beating is JJ - multi-tabling, I acted too quickly without thinking it through.

Anyway, the turn is the beautiful queen. I check (again, I sometimes check here and sometimes bet - this is a good situation to mix it up for me). He checks back. Now unfortunately, the one thing I have not deciphered about this guy is how he plays huge hands (10-10 in this case). So when he checks back, I cannot rule out 10-10. I do believe that he would have checked JJ for sure, and I am not certain what he would have done with AA or KK (though I tend to believe he would have bet aces - not sure about kings).

River is a king. Of course I lead. I think there is a small chance he makes a crying call with JJ but he certainly calls with AA. Because of the king and ten on the board, obviously those hands are more likely (just on straight math) than KK or TT. However, when he raises me all-in, I can immediately rule out AA or JJ. As I said, this guy was a real nit, and while he probably can't put me on QQ, he is the type that would be jittery about the possibility of me holding an eight. I can say with 98% certainty that while he would think AA is probably good here, he would not raise with it. So when he pushes me all-in, I have him squarely on a full house: KK or TT.

Now here is where it gets a bit difficult. If the chances of him having KK or TT are roughly equal, I should make the call. That is because the pot is paying me better than 1-1 on my call.

However, his river raise was so large, it was only slightly better than 1-1. And we now have to consider this important fact. I am by no means certain that he would open raise under the gun with TT. I have seen him limp with 99. Because of that, I think it is very possible that TT is a limping hand for him, especially under the gun. But he certainly would raise UTG with KK. Therefore, I think it is more likely that he has KK, and it is more likely by a bigger margin than the slight overlay the pot is giving me.

Therefore, as insanely annoying as it was, I folded.

Incidentally, this was by far the biggest hand I have ever folded, so don't you 2K regulars get any ideas about running me over from this hand! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Thoughts?

Samo

[luckychewy]

As you said it is EXTREMELY player specific. I don't see how anyone playing as tight as the player you describe can have ANY fun and/or be a winning/break-even player at 10/20 NL. The fact that you have the discipline to fold this even with the read you have is unbelievable to me. Either way, he probably had KK given the way you describe it and I think you saved yourself some $$.

[KingNeo]

I am not folding QQ here. Even if he is a nit, he still might be overplaying AK, AA, or even bluffing.

The real question in this hand is: What does he put you on?

The way you played this hand there is ZERO reason to think you have Qs full.

If he actually has KK then I really don't like his river raise because the way you played the hand you have shown no strength at all. If he did have KK then I think a smaller value bet is a much more logical play on his part.

I don't like this fold at all.

[samoleus]

thanks lucky. there is no question that the 10-20 game has gotten much better, but there is still the occasional nit/loose idiot that makes a jaunt up there.