Sometimes SNGs aren't poker: Open-Folding QQ 3-Handed?

[Nicholasp27]

so, our options:

a) fold: sb has NOT shown yet that he will fold to shorty to keep him alive, so folding here gives us a good shot at keeping the status quo of shorty getting blinded away...if sb folds this time, we can flat call the next 2 times to ensure shorty has to fight for his blinds

b) push: we have premium hand and some FE and there is a chance that sb will fold the blinds to shorty

c) call and fold to reraise: this will prolly be reraised and folded, but at least sb can't fold to shorty...but if sb wasn't gonna fold to shorty, we just gave him one more coinflip to double up with...i think <50% chance of sb folding to shorty, thus better to fold and let him fold to shorty than call to force the coinflip that could give shorty double blinds

d) raise and call reraise: u get an 80/20 if sb is indeed pushing with any2...i don't like as much as an outright push which has some FE nor as much as folding which has better than 20% shot at itm

[Dromar]

If there's any chance that the other player is going to keep bb on life support by folding his sb to him, you need to call/min raise, and fold. This will kill the bb, as he'll have 130 in chips, 100 of which will go into the sb, and he'll fold no matter what. Once he's down to 30 chips, he'll be racing the rest of his money in 2/3 of his hands, and he'll be gone. It feels like a sin, but the best move is to limp in, and fold to the sb's raise. If he doesn't raise preflop, you can min bet on the flop. At that point, there's no way for bb to possibly win if he's sitting out. Of course if you flop a Q, you're playing for all your chips. The only way you could fold if you flop top set is if there's a draw, and you honestly believe sb might be drawing to a flush or something. That's an even tougher situation.

[kevstreet]

e.) min-raise / fold to push

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
I realize there is a microstack involved so my ICM calculations will be slightly biased toward overvaluing his chips and undervaluing yours, but that should just strengthen my conclusion.

There is no possible outcome after you minraise that leaves you with less prize pool equity than you had to start the hand.

prehand: (stacks/equity in $)
(2995,5675,330)/(276,349,34)

if you fold:
(2995,5575,430)/(272,344,44) if SB folds
(2995,5875,130)/(288,357,14) if SB raises

if you minraise:
(3295,5575,130)/(295,350,14) if SB folds
(2595,6275,130)/(278,367,15) if SB raises

The 200 chips you force SB to steal from BB by raising are worth more to BB than the 400 are to you, no matter what. This is different if BB isn't sitting out.

[/ QUOTE ]


but we shouldn't look at what our position was pre-hand...we should look at our position based on what our equity will be after all possible occurences and compare those along with % of time each occurence occurs

if we fold and sb raises, we have 288
if we minraise and sb raises, we have 278

i believe that sb raises at least 80% of the time here; he has not yet folded to shorty to keep him alive

i believe that sb raises our minraise most of the time


if u weight those 4 outcomes, then i believe that folding is better than minraising, which is all that matters...i don't care if my prehand equity was 1000, if my options for posthand equity are 285 vs 280 after weighting, then i'm taking the 285 route

[Nicholasp27]

[ QUOTE ]
e.) min-raise / fold to push

[/ QUOTE ]

that's the same as call/fold to push except that u believe the FE equity is worth more than the 200 in chips you are paying, so i didn't make it another option...it's prolly close to a wash but since sb has always been reraising hero, imo the 200 in chips is worth more than the FE

[Slim Pickens]

Well, I'm risk-averse. Also, if SB has enough brains to push any two over your minraise, he's also folding nearly everything to the absent BB so he can abuse you all day. Put a stop to this seriously -$EV table setup. Think about it. How much of your stack do you have to lose before anything except fold is the better choice? It'll cost a lot more than 400 chips.

[gisb0rne]

SNGPT gives +3.3% for an all-in raise with QQ given SB calls 100% and BB calls 0%. With a minimum edge of 0.2% the raising range is 88+, AKs.

Your EV actually increases as the SB calls with his very worst hands. I doubt he's calling 100%, which means you could actually open up your all-in range. In fact, given how tight he must know you are raising all-in, his calling range should also be very tight. Heck even if your raising range is quite loose (44+, A7s+, A9o+, KJs+) he should only be calling with about 6% of his hands.

I think folding QQ is a terrible play. In fact, given that if he calls your all-in with top 15% (+1.3%) and reraises a raise 100% (+3.3%), it may be better to make a normal raise and call his all-in. First place is worth a lot as well you know.

[kevstreet]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
e.) min-raise / fold to push

[/ QUOTE ]

that's the same as call/fold to push except that u believe the FE equity is worth more than the 200 in chips you are paying, so i didn't make it another option...it's prolly close to a wash but since sb has always been reraising hero, imo the 200 in chips is worth more than the FE

[/ QUOTE ]

Fair enough but you'll have to bet somewhere along the line on this hand because the last thing you want is to check this down and BB triple up with something stupid. If I'm SB I am doing whatever it is in my power to keep that BB alive because (as we all agree) we can't even play QQ confidently.

[wpr101]

Its either a fold or a standard raise IMO. Fold to a reraise all in though.

[Ditch Digger]

Folding is not an option if SB is a thinking 119 opponent. OP already stated he has some clue what he's doing so it's very reasonable to assume he's smart enough to keep the big blind alive.