The final truth about down swings.

[deacsoft]

My intentions were not to flame or complain about all the "I'm losing, what do I do, and when will it end" posts. My intention is to steer these people in a better direction. The vertens should know better and the newbs should have or obtain some kind of understanding. If the tone of my initial post was harsh it is because I was trying to stress my points. I'll admit that this whole concept is simple and basic to me and because of that I expect everyone else to be able to understand it as well. I know that that's not a fair way for me to look at it. It's simply how my mind works. I certainly had no intention of berating anyone and I apologize to any that got that impression. I'm trying to help those who need it and perhaps my methods could use a little polishing.

Just play winning poker and you will win in the long run.

Cheers,

deacsoft

[bernie]

For the record, I didn't view your post as berating or flaming. I thought it had some good stuff in it. I covered that above.
I think it got some good discussion + a cool link to go further into it.

One part of these types of posts to remember is what it was like when you first went through it, or how the majority of players mindset is at that point in the process.

b

[Mayhap]

Evidently your foray into succor found suckers.

:-)

[SteveL91]

[ QUOTE ]

Just play winning poker and you will win in the long run.

Cheers,

deacsoft

[/ QUOTE ]

This is, I think, the simplest statement in this entire thread... and for a new player, the hardest to define. That's what I struggle with when I'm in a downswing. Mentally, I know they'll happen. I also know that no matter how pissed off I get after suffering suckout after suckout, I'll be fine within minutes.

There are, however, a few reasons I (and maybe most other new players, but I'll only speak for myself) get so discombobulated by downswings:

1) There doesn't seem to be any logic behind it. It doesn't matter if we expect them. It's hard to wrap my head around the fact that I can be hitting one minute, and literally within minutes, not hit a thing. The hardest part about poker to master for me will be the dynamics between skill (the long term) and luck (the short term).

2) I'm still learning. I have no idea if I'm a winning player. I don't know if I'm wasting my time. I don't care how many hands I've played and I don't care what my winrate says. It doesn't mean anything to me without the confidence that I'm learning and getting better, and I still don't know for sure how much of my ineptitude is masked by a good run of cards.

3) The most obvious one: I just hate to lose. Obviously I don't expect to win every pot. My background is trading the markets, so I'm fine being wrong; it's when it reaches the point where it feels like I can't do anything right that I start to get irritated. I don't necessarily tilt; my decision making isn't impacted, but I get too upset over a stupid game and that, to me, is weakness.

I've gone through downswings and come out of them. I'm currently going through one and I know this too shall pass. But, knowing it doesn't necessarily make it easier to deal with without the knowledge that it is just varience, and not necessarily my play. Once I reach the point of believing I'm a winning player, I'd like to think I won't bat an eye when I hit a downswing. I guess we'll see.

Thanks for starting this thread. It's given me a few things to think about.

[bambi]

Go to the smallest limits you can find, and put black tape over these things, Your opponents cards and money, turn off all chat, block your money at the table and also if you can block seeing who the pot goes too.

All you are left with is betting, whilst this doesnt help with reads, it does not allow you to see who is winning and wether you are winning or losing, You cant see wether someguy just hit a 2 outer on the river to take down your set, So this should allow tilt free poker, if you dont know how somebody beat you, you cant complain.

Take this mentality and make notes, because if you maintain this mentality when you do see those cards staring you in the face, the ones that just sucked you out and it mentally and emotionally does nothing to you, if your feelings are exactly the same as if you won the pot, then and only then are you on the way to true excellence.

It is only when this state of mind has been reached that you can truly blaim a bad run of cards, for your downswing.

And if you do go on a bad run your mental state wont change because you wont care, you will know that you will win in the long run.

ps, i am no where near this state, and i doubt anyone is, maybe this state can not be reached, and if someone reaches this state i doubt wether they would continue playing as they probably would not gain any enjoyment from the game.

[BeerMoney]

Nice post bernie. I always look forward to your posts.

[the_rookie]

I feel alright about my play. I stopped looking at my pokertracker statistics while playing and noticed I played more efficiently. Just another tip to control our emotions I guess.

Just thought I'd add on to this thread. BTW 25,000 hands and counting 145BB slide. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I rarely post about my downswings, but it feels good to get it off my shoulders. Not to whine, cause if I wanted to do that I'd post all the bad beats I've had. [img]/images/graemlins/smirk.gif[/img]

[Cyrus]

Downswings will happen even to those who play "perfectly". If you want to see what serious downswings look like, without the "other player" causing it, go to a blackjack website and search for horror stories.

You will see there a ton of sad tales where the dealer shows a 5 or a 6, at a huge plus count, and with all guns firing (max bets) the player watches in horror as the dealer proceeds to turn his stiff into a 21. No river rats, no suck outs here; because the dealer does not "play", he is simply following the house rules, which force him to hit all stiff hands. And that's the picture of bad luck, for ya, stripped of "opponents' stupidity".

There are literally hundreds of stories of serious BJ APs (and BJ teams, with combined BRs!) who have gone bust because of capricious luck.

But a point about bad beats and downswings, in poker or Blackjack : More times than we realize, the downswing is not due to bad luck but to bad play. There may be serious leaks in a player's game which he cannot see, and which cause his BR to dwindle, or even collapse, before he wakes up to them. I've seen this happen in Blackjack and I know it is an issue in poker as well.

So that downswing might not be running bad, but me being a donor.

[Milo]

I started playing two years ago, and was a winning player from the get go. My largest downswing was 150BB, and I had no idea how difficult it would be to endure a truly awful downswing. I'm now in the midst of a 25K hand, 300BB downswing. I've looked at my game and changed a number of things. Last night, I made some superb table selections, and played 750 hands of good poker, losing 30BB. I went to bed pleased with my performance, but still frustrated at the loss. I will continue to work on the weak areas and accept the variance, but it is not easy.

[Zygote]

[ QUOTE ]
I started playing two years ago, and was a winning player from the get go. My largest downswing was 150BB, and I had no idea how difficult it would be to endure a truly awful downswing. I'm now in the midst of a 25K hand, 300BB downswing. I've looked at my game and changed a number of things. Last night, I made some superb table selections, and played 750 hands of good poker, losing 30BB. I went to bed pleased with my performance, but still frustrated at the loss. I will continue to work on the weak areas and accept the variance, but it is not easy.

[/ QUOTE ]

All experienced players can relate and at least you've got the right attitude. Don't lose hope in the "correct thinking".