Why You Shouldnt Play HUSNG with 20 Buyins

[ChicagoRy]

I've had 5 career 7 loss streaks. Nothing worse. I've had so many 7 buyin downswings though, I don't really notice unless it starts getting over 10 and closer to 15.

I've also never won more than 11 in a row, this is according to Sharkscope so I may have had 8 losses in a row and more than 11 wins in a row, I don't really know.

[RyanJM]

I agree with cwar's article. I don't know anyone that has done the whole 10 buy-in move-up deal successfully above the $30 level. Sure, I went from $10 to $20 hu very quickly, at 10 buy-ins or less, but around $30 I had around 20+ buy-ins. $50 I had 20-30 buy-ins. Even before I played poker, losing $20 would not affect me much. Losing $50 doesn't bother me much, but it would have if I only had 10 buy-ins because $50 is not an insignificant amount of money to me.

Your confidence in your game could be shattered if you lost 5 buy-ins and it was half your roll. You can't play poker scared, and unless you're a total robot I don't see how you could play optimally with only a few buy-ins in your account. All theory aside, no one that I know who is good at HUSNG poker does that.

[xSCWx]

I just looked and I have 57 2 game losing streaks and only 32 2 game win streaks. Wtf?

I must suck over 2 game samples.

[ChicagoRy]

If I had more non-poker money I'd love to do a 10 buyin thing.

[higHstaKesOwneR]

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If I had more non-poker money I'd love to do a 10 buyin thing.

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yeah sounds nice lol i should try this too :P
one is for sure... you will ahve a lot of action moving up and down in limits every day [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]


i am unsing a 1500 buyin brm [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]
i think that is a bit to much and the cause why i don't often play my a-game

i guess with a very loose brm you will try to play your a-game much more because it's more important

[Kalledrengen]

Excelent post Cwar!

If I ever move up from my $22 breakeven poker and start making enough money to be able to make a living out of poker I would difinitely not play with less than a 50 buyin bankroll for psychological reasons.

Some people are without a doubt more strong mentally and should be able to do fine with a much lesser bankroll.

1500 buyin bankroll is a lot though =]

[TNixon]

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Well theres 7 losses in a row then theres losing 7 buyins during a stretch of matches, Im talking about the latter.

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Oh. The original comment (from another thread) was about 7 in a row. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Being down 7 overall is obviously much more common.

[TNixon]

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I don't know anyone that has done the whole 10 buy-in move-up deal successfully above the $30 level.

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I've made it to the $50 level numerous times, and the $100 level a few times, playing a 10 buyin rule.

There. Now you know somebody.

[TNixon]

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Okay, so I have had 4 streaks of 7 losses in the past 489 games, capped at 9.

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With that many games, that doesn't sound abnormal to me at all.

Here are my streak counts over 5400 games (did sharkscope recently lose some data or something? I was fairly sure I crossed the 6k HU mark a while back)

streak of 5: 25 losses 51 wins
streak of 6: 11 losses 32 wins
streak of 7: 11 losses 19 wins
streak of 8: 3 losses 14 wins
streak of 9: 1 loss 7 wins

9 is my biggest losing streak, and I have a win of 10, two wins of 11, one of 12, and one of 13.

[jay_shark]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well theres 7 losses in a row then theres losing 7 buyins during a stretch of matches, Im talking about the latter.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh. The original comment (from another thread) was about 7 in a row. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Being down 7 overall is obviously much more common.

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The probability you are down exactly 7 buy-ins in 100 hands is 0 . You cannot be down an odd number of buy-ins after playing an even number of matches . Now if you were interested in the probability of dropping 6 buy-ins or more in 100 matches as a 58% winner we proceed as follows :

We use the normal distribution to give a very accurate approximation .

To be down 6 buy-ins or more in 100 matches , means you won at most 47 matches and lost 53 matches .

var = 1^2*0.58 + (-1)^2*0.42 - 0.16^2
s.d = sqrt(0.9744)

sample s.d over 100 games = 9.871170143

z=(47-58)/9.871170143
z=-1.114356235

Using a z-score table we see that the probability of being down 6 buy-ins or more in 100 matches as a 58% winner is 50%-36.65% = 13.35%