KQs vs. LAG

[Nielsio]

results?

[Paul Thomson]

I don't get this thread...

check-fold > bet-fold >>> bet-call

I like check-fold better than bet-fold because most Villain's (even active ones) don't mess around in a reraised pot with an Ace on the board.

But let's assume that this guy floats the flop alot but won't float the turn. And let's further assume that any reasonable bet on the turn will fold out worse hands. And for the sake of simplicity assume that the Villain will push with all hands he does not fold. (I think these are all reasonable assumptions--albeit the final one which doesn't change the EV much but makes calcs easier).

Than bet-fold is better than bet-call. Why invest more good money after bad. Why are you trying to committ yourself to a pot when you know you're getting the worst of it even though you don't gain any additional FE.

[thedustbustr]

paul,

on the turn: pot 135, stax 200, lets say you bet 90, he shoves, you're getting 135+90+90+110 : 110 which is 3.86 to 1.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2893721
pokenum -h ks qs - ad kd -- 5c 4s ac 6s
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 6s 4s Ac 5c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Qs 9 20.45 35 79.55 0 0.00 0.205
Ad Kd 35 79.55 9 20.45 0 0.00 0.795

79.55 : 20.45 is 3.88 to 1.

Its a breakeven call, so just increase your bet amount to maximize fold equity.

The only way you have room to fold is if you're betting like 70 into 135 which is gonna get you shoved on or called a lot more than you would like.

[orange]

i messed up my turn bet really bad. i didnt see how much i had to start and it was screwing me up. i shouldve bet like 120 to just price myself in. i bet less though (not that it wouldve mattered i dont think). here are results. thanks all for replies and confirming that betting the turn wasnt completely just a tilt move.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker HH Converter)

SB: $336.85
Hero (BB): $264.80
UTG: $284.90
CO: $257.85
BTN: $266.20

Preflop: Hero is dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 Players)
2 folds, <font color="red">BTN raises to $8.00</font>, SB folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $27.00</font>, BTN calls $19.00

Flop: ($55) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40.00</font>, BTN calls $40.00

Turn: ($135) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $100.00</font>, <font color="red">BTN raises all-in to $199.20</font>, Hero calls all-in for $97.80
Uncalled bet of $1.40 returned to BTN

River: ($530.60) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players - 2 All-In)

Pot Size: $530.60 ($2 Rake)

BTN had 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Aces) and WON (+$263.80)
Hero had K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (a pair of Queens) and LOST (-$264.80)

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
paul,

on the turn: pot 135, stax 200, lets say you bet 90, he shoves, you're getting 135+90+90+110 : 110 which is 3.86 to 1.

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=2893721
pokenum -h ks qs - ad kd -- 5c 4s ac 6s
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 6s 4s Ac 5c
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ks Qs 9 20.45 35 79.55 0 0.00 0.205
Ad Kd 35 79.55 9 20.45 0 0.00 0.795

79.55 : 20.45 is 3.88 to 1.

Its a breakeven call, so just increase your bet amount to maximize fold equity.

The only way you have room to fold is if you're betting like 70 into 135 which is gonna get you shoved on or called a lot more than you would like.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess we disagree on whether a pot size bet vs a .60 pot size bet had more FE.

[Jay Riall]

Orange - do you think he felts his hand if the turn was a blank? Say a red 2 or 4?

Also I think the pretty much proved why you don't want to bet the turn. People like this aren't going to call A7o to a 3bet preflop and look to fold too often when they hit their Ace.

[thedustbustr]

.6 pot is $81, which is a pretty dumb bet considering it leaves you with a very slightly -EV draw to your flush.

$90 is the breakeven point. Bet a lot more than 90, or a lot less than 90.

edit: i take this post back, its not a dumb bet, its got the same expectation as probably $95 (rough) with no variance. so yea, you're right, it comes down to fe. /edit

[Paul Thomson]

[ QUOTE ]
.6 pot is $81, which is a pretty dumb bet considering it leaves you with a very slightly -EV draw to your flush.

$90 is the breakeven point. Bet a lot more than 90, or a lot less than 90.

edit: i take this post back, its not a dumb bet, its got the same expectation as probably $95 (rough) with no variance. so yea, you're right, it comes down to fe. /edit

[/ QUOTE ]

It has higher EV than a $95 bet just as it has higher EV than a $90 bet assuming that FE is the same.