Botting the WNBA Season...

[MrBlueNose]

Also as there was a lot of posts above, todays predictions might have got lost in the shuffle so here they are again:

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Old System:
New York +10 vs Detroit: Likes New York to lose by no more than five.
Seattle -1.5 vs Houston: Actually predicts Houston to win this one by 1 point.
Sacramento -2.5 vs Minnesota: Predicts Sacramento by 2.5 points, so no bet.
Connecticut +6 vs Phoenix: Likes Phoenix to win, but only by 2 points, so Connecticut would be the bet.

New System: Likes Connecticut +6 and New York at +10.

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[AAmucked]

So how big of a point differential between predicted/spread do you think would be a 2 unit bet?

[MrBlueNose]

That's something I'm looking to start calculating probably next month - once we've got a little bit more data to go on.

But(and bear in mind this is really just a cautious guess):

- With the old system, if it says the underdog is actually going to win, I'd play more units on that as it's been successful with that.
- With the old system, I'd look for spreads in the 3-6 point range, where it predicts a different outcome by 3 points or more.
- With the new system, I'll start giving the % it expects a team to cover. I had a lengthy discussion tonight with someone about this, and am going to drop the threshold from 60% to 58%. I'd say 65% and above, I would look into increasing units, especially when we hit 70% and above.

On that note, for the new systems picks for today New York is at exactly 65%, and Connecticut is at a whopping 77%.

But of course - remember the sample size [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] We're still treading water at this stage.

[AAmucked]

It's interesting that the lines have been moving in our favor consistently, at least on all the games I've been betting.

[ECB]

Wow The Bot System is for real,

I am a WNBA fan and watch all televised games and follow the league very closely.

Detroit should cover tonight and win by 12-20+
Connecticut should cover - most of their away games are losses by 4pts or less
Sacramento should cover - this game is a change in venue playing at U of Minnesota and that will help
Seattle/Houston is a toss-up -Bird is out
Lets see how we do. The Detroit game is the play of the night. They will be out for blood and it looks like a blowout

[rjp]

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I am a WNBA fan and watch all televised games and follow the league very closely.

Detroit should cover tonight and win by 12-20+

The Detroit game is the play of the night. They will be out for blood and it looks like a blowout

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So do you actually analyze the data or do you just play by feel?

[ECB]

By feel. I do look at the shooting % etc. The Liberty are coming off a 30 point loss on the road to Seattle - Detroit has lost two straight - they are the best in the league and blew the Liberty out of the gym a couple weeks ago in NY. Detroit has been humiliated twice in the past week. They will redeem themselves tonight.

[MrBlueNose]

To be honest I share a lot of the same opinions. If it was just ME making a prediction tonight, but that would be a bet based more on "feeling" - for the same reasons you cited above. It's why I'm so much more comfortable betting with the bot - because it's a purely stat based pick and not based on feelings, assumptions etc. And I believe New York have the 3rd best record in regard to points conceded, and actually having played 1 more game than both Detroit/Indiana, they'd probably have the 2nd best record. Of course in saying that, Detroit have conceded the least at home, and New York are generally low scorers on the road. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Should be a fun game to watch. The bots expected spread was +6.5 New York.

[ECB]

All Hail The Bot
Start of Fourth - and - NY down 1 and in position to not only cover but to win. Great job designing the "Bot"

[letsgojuniors]

Hear hear! Connecticut up double digits in the second quarter