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#51
03-28-2007, 11:34 PM
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Re: March Low Content Thread.
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I know this is standard. I know I'm not a huge fave. I know, I know, I know. Seat 9: orcslayer (6268 in chips) Dealt to FrankNagaiJr [3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]] orcslayer: raises 300 to 450 FrankNagaiJr: raises 1125 to 1575 orcslayer: raises 3375 to 4950 FrankNagaiJr: calls 1825 and is all-in *** RIVER *** [Kc 4h 2c Qh] [Kd] Seat 9: orcslayer showed [2d 2h Ac Qc] and won (7025) with HI: a full house, Deuces full of Kings [/ QUOTE ] I see that Orcslayer took fourth (out of 264) in the tourney. I guess there's something to be said for pushing every A2xx hand you find utg. 
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#52
03-29-2007, 10:35 AM
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Re: March Low Content Thread.
something to be said for pushing every A2xx hand you find utg
Nah. It gets you into situations like the hand you posted, where orcslayer was actually a dog and just got lucky. Focusing on his fourth place finish is too results-oriented. Just eyeballing the variance and expected edge of good players in O8, I would expect that the top 15% of the field of 250 or so average a 10% chance of making the final table (with a few at the very top end of the distribution being close to 20%) with the next 35% or so of the field averaging more like a 4% chance, and the bottom half about 1%. Anyway, the point is that while few if any *bad* players will make it to the final table, it's hardly a reliable way to sort the best from the merely good. Additional evidence: while I played (I think) very well in two of the three $5+$0.50 PLO8 tourneys where I reached the FT, in the third one I played terribly for the first hour and a half - twice donking off 3/4 of my stack, then rebuilding with a string of improbable scoops and suckouts. I did manage to pull myself together after a while, but getting 5th in that one still had more to do with channeling Jamie Gold than anything else. So don't assume that orcslayer's play is exemplary just because he finished fourth.
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#53
03-29-2007, 10:59 AM
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Re: March Low Content Thread.
[ QUOTE ]
something to be said for pushing every A2xx hand you find utg Nah. It gets you into situations like the hand you posted, where orcslayer was actually a dog and just got lucky. Focusing on his fourth place finish is too results-oriented. Just eyeballing the variance and expected edge of good players in O8, I would expect that the top 15% of the field of 250 or so average a 10% chance of making the final table (with a few at the very top end of the distribution being close to 20%) with the next 35% or so of the field averaging more like a 4% chance, and the bottom half about 1%. Anyway, the point is that while few if any *bad* players will make it to the final table, it's hardly a reliable way to sort the best from the merely good. Additional evidence: while I played (I think) very well in two of the three $5+$0.50 PLO8 tourneys where I reached the FT, in the third one I played terribly for the first hour and a half - twice donking off 3/4 of my stack, then rebuilding with a string of improbable scoops and suckouts. I did manage to pull myself together after a while, but getting 5th in that one still had more to do with channeling Jamie Gold than anything else. So don't assume that orcslayer's play is exemplary just because he finished fourth. [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, should have inserted the <sarcasm></sarcasm> brackets. I was hating on Orcslayer for doing well with my chips. For all I know, he may have been playing well outside of this play, and I didn't stick around to find out. There is a lot to be said about opening up pots for a raise in the PLO8 MTTs, and I think that if you've got a big chip lead, you can stand to be on the 40% side every once in a while, to get the message out that anybody who raises on you had better be prepared to get it all in. I have noticed, when I look at final 3 tables compositions of MTT PLO8s, there's some chance that my player notes will include comments like 'PLO8 Moran', or 'Does not understand pot odds', but I also see a lot of repeat visitors to the top 20. These days I've been playing the DkBlue private PLO8 tourneys and doing okay. In my last three starts I took 1st, 1st and 2nd (fields of 8,11 and 12 I think, but mostly competent/good players). Of course I needed some decent hands and some luck, but I also made good use of slow playing and naked agression at the right times, which meant that I usually had chips left over when I lost a coin flip.
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