*** Official February, March, April Chatter Thread ***

[wiper]

i just want to say that watching kevin harvick overtake mark martin on that last turn, and at the same time giving me a 50%ish increase in bankroll was just about the best thing ever.

i didn't even know i was still in the running, and then out of nowhere the announcer tells me that it's MY horse on the outside...

excellent 10 seconds or so..

[Thremp]

BLARG!!!

Is anyone any good at poka? I hate it... My hourly sucks ass. I suck at poker and have been going on life tilt from it.

)^@&#@&#(@#%(@&^#%@(^&#%@(

[New001]

I used to be good. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] It has me on life tilt now though.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to be good. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] It has me on life tilt now though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry, RiverStars has me flipping out. I can't get "lucky" at all. By "lucky" I mean win a single 50/50 hand where its AI on flop, win a single hand where I have >70% equity AI on turn.

I'm never gonna move up from small donkostakes NL if I can't control the tilt monster. Or get luckier... Or both.

[New001]

I just can't beat the rake. And by the rake I mean my girlfriend. It's even worse that it's at WPX [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[TheRover]

Why can't you beat your girlfriend? She probably has it coming.

I quit poker months ago. I don't regret it.

[New001]

I wish I had the BR to do that and just bet sports. I'd also be worried I'm just running well here.

[TheRover]

wtf, when did these blank spaces of gray start appearing next to the CBB lines at Skybook? can I turn them off?

[MyTurn2Raise]

I made a post in the January chatter thread about how I was dipping into NCAAB seriously for the first time. Basically, I've used widely available stat projections to try and hammer lines off by 4 or more points.

I've done this from 1/18 through today every day.

Here's the results so far

192 picks ATS: 100-86-6 for 53.76% winners
71 line moves in favor of the picks, 77 against

247 picks O/U: 126-119-2 for 51.4% winners
80 moves in favor, 52 against

439 picks overall: 226-205-8 for 52.4% winners
151 line moves in favor, 129 against


so....pretty meh alltogether. However, I have been clearing some decent bonus, so it has been profitable.

I am just blankly reporting the system. A reasonable bettor could do better. Here are a few factors:

1) the Duquesne effect. This team has really changed throughout the season. The stat projectors just don't account for their tempo/scoring surge in the 2nd half of the year. The projections have been solidly under time and time again during the last 6 or 7 games. the totals have moved 6.5, 11.5, 8, 3.5, 4.5 points higher for duquesne over the last 5 openers IIRC!!! IN that time, the system has been 1-4. A rational better would just avoid Duquesne under recommendations like the plague right now.

2) Home unranked fav against ranked road opponent.
The system has been monstrous of late, while the stat projections keep going with the ranked road doggie. I believe this actually highlights an interesting subset to avoid. By and large, the stat crunchers use a set homecourt adjustment or multiple. It's my intuition that this is incorrect. Home court is not a linear effect on the game. It's my theory that home court plays a larger role in projected close games with big crowds. During the offseason, I'll dive in and see what adjustments I can make.

In essence, though, just avoiding the Duquesne under stuff and the home unranked fave verse road ranked doggie would push the system to near 54%....which is nice for the amount of work it takes.


Of course, with it being this close, the sample size is not enough to say anything definitive from a stat basis.

[TheRover]

DSI down for anyone else right now?