it seems like everytime i cold 4 it with aces...

[Black winter day]

Op can't fold river, cause he is getting close to 3 to 1 and he beats half of villain's possible hands.
I agree, that villain probably c/f AK no d, but he could figure, that he is commited already and that 4th d might scare hero, so why not push?
It's less likely, but the possibility isn't 0.
Since we need only to be right about 27% here and we did get the d we payed on the turn for - i don't fold.
I fold the turn like 75% of the time though vs this villain.

[luckychewy]

bwd i'm sorry but your analysis is truly horrendous. just because i am a favorite to his pf calling range on the river given the pot odds, does not come close to justifying a river call. maybe your advice would be somewhat valuable if your pf hand range is correct and he is always felting them by the river or something else ridiculous and unreal.

[Black winter day]

[ QUOTE ]
bwd i'm sorry but your analysis is truly horrendous. just because i am a favorite to his pf calling range on the river given the pot odds, does not come close to justifying a river call. maybe your advice would be somewhat valuable if your pf hand range is correct and he is always felting them by the river or something else ridiculous and unreal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't get this.
Why did you call the turn if you are folding the river then, when getting the nut flush???
Did you call to get an A only?
Then you certainly didn't have the pot odds...

I agree, that you are probably beat and AK doesn't make much sense here, but you are getting close to 3 to 1.My analysis maybe flawed, cause i wouldn't be on the river
facing this situation - as i said, i prefer folding the turn if i checked (which happens very rare when i have overpair and nut FD) or betting the flop and be ready to felt it - makes your life much easier.

Edit: Also [ QUOTE ]
Hero calls $373.30

[/ QUOTE ] Aren't you the hero? [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Reef]

looks fine, sometimes I bet flop

[True]

sometimes shove pf

[luckychewy]

alright well i guess there is no general consensus, just a bunch of opinions, which i still thank you all for.

fwiw he had jj.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Op can't fold river, cause he is getting close to 3 to 1 and he beats half of villain's possible hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol are you freaking kidding me

PROBABILITY OF EACH HAND IN THE RANGE

jebus how does MSNL get this wrong so often?

edit: and the reason we can fold the river is that THE PROBABILITIES CHANGE WHEN HE SHOVES IT

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
My analysis maybe flawed, cause i wouldn't be on the river facing this situation - as i said, i prefer folding the turn if i checked (which happens very rare when i have overpair and nut FD) or betting the flop and be ready to felt it - makes your life much easier.

[/ QUOTE ]

you're right, felting does make your life much easier. in fact you should just open shove every flop when you have the nut flush draw. this would make your life even easier than 'much easier', because you'd have no pesky 'decisions' to make or 'equities' to calculate or really have to think about poker at all.

[Black winter day]

I will repeat the question.
Op called on the turn to get the diamond.He got it.Why is he folding then?

And FD isn't Overpair+FD.Or do you not see why the second one is better?
Yes, i am ready to felt overpair + Nut FD in every reraised pot.DUCY?

All i said was that villain's range is exactly 4 hands by the river.We beat half of them.I didn't say, they are equally probable, cause when villain pushes he is more likely to have a boat, of course.

[ QUOTE ]
It's less likely, but the possibility isn't 0.


[/ QUOTE ]

I should have clarified myself better obvisously, since i was misunderstood, so here...

But Op only need to be right about 27% of the time to make the call...So, while i still thought before the results he is beat this is not a terrible call by all means and for the last time - if i call turn, i call this river.

Lucky - sucks that he had that boat, the only way you could have avoided stacking off is by checking the flop and folding the turn, but majority of the players would just stick it in there on the flop anyway...

[recallme]

Why didn`t you bet flop? I could see him rerasing with AK and then you can push. Your not a big dog to anything other than his Flush on the Flop!