Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?

[kleath]

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I agree that he should shove, but I think "monumental mistake" is an exaggeration, if he's following his read its a marginal call in cEV, so he probably made a mistake in $EV but was thinking in chips, also his ego probably came into play and he didnt need to gamble when he thought he was the better player.

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Honestly, if he's the better player, he has to know that his edge in this hand is WAY too big to pass up. I'd need someone who was playing as wildly as Gold to expose their hand and show me a better FD to now get it in on that flop.

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Agreed but I believe he's primarily a cash player and prob isnt adjusting his thinking properly for tournaments. He's also thinking I can pwn this douche no matter what chip deficit, pwn noobs!

[seke2]

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Agreed but I believe he's primarily a cash player and prob isnt adjusting his thinking properly for tournaments. He's also thinking I can pwn this douche no matter what chip deficit, pwn noobs!

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Which is, in fact, a monumental mistake, because that idea that a 7:1 chip deficit doesn't matter is incredibly wrong and if he's the better player, he'd realize that.

This hand was the only chance that ANY player had of derailing the Gold-rush this year, and Wasicka rock-gardened his way into runner-upsville.

[kleath]

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Agreed but I believe he's primarily a cash player and prob isnt adjusting his thinking properly for tournaments. He's also thinking I can pwn this douche no matter what chip deficit, pwn noobs!

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Which is, in fact, a monumental mistake, because that idea that a 7:1 chip deficit doesn't matter is incredibly wrong and if he's the better player, he'd realize that.

This hand was the only chance that ANY player had of derailing the Gold-rush this year, and Wasicka rock-gardened his way into runner-upsville.

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Mmm hauntingly poignant

[jason75]

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Yeah...and honestly, one of the biggest and most compelling factors for why you should call is that coming in 1st in the WSOP ME has a much higher value than the actual prize. The potential for future endorsement opportunities with various poker sites, free buyins you will be offered to many future tournaments, etc. are worth a lot as well. The guy who comes in 2nd or 3rd or whatever will have much less access to those opportunities than the guy who wins.

So when you think of 1st place being worth X amount... realize that X is far higher than the just the prize itself. It really was, as the OP suggested a monumental weak/tight mistake, because if you aren't going to get it in on this flop, why are you even considering playing the hand? Other than flopping an actual straight flush, it doesn't get much better than that flop.

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Word . . . instacall.

But that's what separates champions from runners up (mostly).

[LearnedfromTV]

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Yeah...and honestly, one of the biggest and most compelling factors for why you should call is that coming in 1st in the WSOP ME has a much higher value than the actual prize. The potential for future endorsement opportunities with various poker sites, free buyins you will be offered to many future tournaments, etc. are worth a lot as well. The guy who comes in 2nd or 3rd or whatever will have much less access to those opportunities than the guy who wins.

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Yes! It was topheavy to begin with (12/6/4), but in reality it's like at least 13 or 14, and probably more like 15+.

Two factors against calling, but both have a but attached

- Gold could have a bigger spade draw (but even if he does, unless he has the perfect terrible hand spades w/ a T, Wasicka has fourteen outs - it matters that he has a pure sf draw - and only has to fade seven remianing spades on a redraw - it's like 57/43. And as has been said, his range is too wide for that set of hands that are really bad for Wasicka to be a large %)

- Binger could fold, knocking out two good-case-even-though-he-loses scenarios for Wasicka (but headsup against Gold's range he is still a favorite, and if Binger folds a T or 99-77 Wasicka picks up some equity vs the threeway allin scenario (in exchange for a greater chance of being eliminated third).

I haven't put it through a math grinder, but I think it is a clear call, mostly because, based on the payout strcuture, this (the bubble for 2nd/3rd) is the ideal place to gamble, risking busting in exchange for a stack that can win.

I think he must have been most afraid of Binger folding, because if the action order were reversed and he could call allin closing the action, getting the odds he was getting, the stack size edge on Binger meaning the perfect parlay Binger>Gold>Wasicka was necessary for him to bust third, he'd be an absolute fool not to.

[kleath]

just to throw it out there but if gold has T9s and it gets HU wasicka is a 3 to 1 dog.

[Scooterdoo]

No need to guess why he folded. Just finished listening to the circuit podcast from 9-16 where they interviewed Wasicka and he discussed the hand. He felt that because of Gold's quick all-in, he was pretty confident that Gold had a flush draw, certainly higher than his flush draw. He based this on other pushes earlier with drawing hands and also the quick nature of the push. Clearly he was right about the draw, but wrong about what kind of draw it was.

I believe I would have called this given the same situation, but assuming Wasicka was confident in his read of Gold, it wasn't a bad fold.

What is surprising to me is that Wasicka also said that he felt really good after the final hand and his only goal was making the final table. Given this attitude it is surprising that he didn't just say 'what the F', I'm very likely a favorite here and can challenge for the chip lead if I win, if I'm wrong I still get $4 million and met all of my goals, etc.,e tc.'.

The important thing is that he had a read, went with it, made a proper decision based on the read, and even after the results he's very happy with his decision. IMHO, these factors all point to a good decision based on the facts.

[kleath]

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No need to guess why he folded. Just finished listening to the circuit podcast from 9-16 where they interviewed Wasicka and he discussed the hand. He felt that because of Gold's quick all-in, he was pretty confident that Gold had a flush draw, certainly higher than his flush draw. He based this on other pushes earlier with drawing hands and also the quick nature of the push. Clearly he was right about the draw, but wrong about what kind of draw it was.

I believe I would have called this given the same situation, but assuming Wasicka was confident in his read of Gold, it wasn't a bad fold.

What is surprising to me is that Wasicka also said that he felt really good after the final hand and his only goal was making the final table. Given this attitude it is surprising that he didn't just say 'what the F', I'm very likely a favorite here and can challenge for the chip lead if I win, if I'm wrong I still get $4 million and met all of my goals, etc.,e tc.'.

The important thing is that he had a read, went with it, made a proper decision based on the read, and even after the results he's very happy with his decision. IMHO, these factors all point to a good decision based on the facts.

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Thats what I said at first but after looking at it some more even if he was right that Gold had higher FD and then Binger had AT or something it was a marginal decision, only slightly incorrect, and thats assuming gold had higher spades and not some other draw. As I mentioned he's only worse than 30% in a 3 way pot if he's got T9s, in which case he's crushed. Its possible Wasicka didnt know how well he was doing against something like KsQs too, where he just assumed his biggest strength is his FD, he's still got 14 outs against gold, though gold has redraws to all but two of those outs.

[curtains]

oh i misread hand

[Bakes]

Doubtful Gold limps from the button with Ks Q/Js, As Xs in the first place IMO.