Another Mansion free bet

[brendanb438]

Mansion is trying to attract the "whales" of online sportsbetting. I would guess a small percentage of players make $1000+ bets on individual games. They hope to get people to play for the long term there. Also I am sure they are hoping the Steelers win by 7. [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

-Brendan

[MicroBob]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, probably a stupid question. But I just don't understand.

What is Mansion gaining from this? My poker bankroll is only about $1200 so if I threw it onto this game on Sept 6th... I'm not losing anything and I can win $1000? Too good to be true...

[/ QUOTE ]


Just think it through as to trying to figure their logic.
Not that I think it's the greatest move ever because it's just so outrageous for people like us....but try to work through the logic.


The make it a MINIMUM of $1100 deposit.
So ONLY people who actually have this much money to plunk down will be doing so.
It gets everybody with $1100 to come to Mansion and check out their sports-site right at the beginning of the NFL season. So you can figure they are interested in winning over as much of that NFL betting action as they can.


It takes an ID scan and a few days to cash-out.
Some people will be lazy about getting around to it. In the meanwhile, that $1100 (or $2100 if PIT wins) that is sitting in a bunch of people's accounts.
Many of these people are going to see a future game and think, "Hell, I already have a ton of money in there. I'll bet $100 on the Steelers again because I had so much fun rooting for them last time. I'll cash-out when I get around to it."


A friend of mine who I will tell about this has a very good chance of taking that money and saying, "well, it was already in there anyway and I didn't feel like cashing-out so I decided to play some blackjack with it and see what I could accomplish."


Finally, for every 50 people who take the money and never return they only need 1 player who will go ahead and bring his -$50k square-betting to Mansion.

There ARE plenty of bettors out there who do go out and lose thousands and thousands of dollars. And they do this across a wide range of different sports-betting sites.
Mansion is trying to bring as many of them as they can over to their book JUST to let them have a look at it and HOPE that they bring that sports-betting action to their site more and more.



These are some of the theories I came up with anyway.


It's still an insane deal of course.
But when you consider how many people they are going to get to deposit AND leave $1100 on their site that they won't be able to get out for a few days then I do start to see the logic behind it (whether or not it works out profitable for them...or is a giant disaster...is another issue entirely).


I also have to think that they looked at the smaller-scale Tottenham promo and saw how much more action that brought in the days that followed.


For example, I had never placed a bet on Mansion in my life. After the Tottenham thing, I placed 3 or 4 small bets on baseball games.

In fact, showing your appreciation with some other sports-betting action on their site might encourage them to do another one of these promos after the Steelers thing is all wrapped up.

[john voight]

noob questions;

1. I saw a bunch of conversions for how much $ to place. Im in the USA (USD$). I'd like to know how much i need to deposite into the site to; have the minimum amount requiered to place on the bet for the promo to be valid.

2. If i do not hedge, I can only break even?
3. If I do not hedge, does it matter if the lines move?
4. If i do want to hedge, what kind of line do I want (in relation to Mansion's line?)

5. Am i qualified if I have never depoed into this book? I will be a total new user.

6. What is the %chance that everyone gets screwed?

[manifest]

Awesome post Microbob, thanks a lot. I'm going to hedge it.

$1100 on Pittsburgh at Mansion
$540 on Miami at Pinnacle

I love 2+2.

[ImsaKidd]

Bob:

I think your points are valid. I dont think 2p2'ers fully appreciate how much $$ some of these big players lose on sportsbetting/casino games.

[MicroBob]

Answer to 1 - you need to deposit $1100 in order to place an $1100 bet.

2 - if you don't hedge then you either win $1000 or you break-even.

3 - Once you place the bet you get the line at the time that you placed it. It does matter after that if the lines move.

4 - If you want to hedge at a place like pinnaclesports then you want the best line you can get. Right now they might be +5 -121 on Miami.

5 - Yes

6 - % chance that everyone gets screwed = the chance that Mansion doesn't give the refunds. I think this chance is extremely small.
The only other way you could lose out is if you want to hedge and you can only get Miami at +4.5.
In this situation, if PIT wins by EXACTLY 5 points then you would lose $500.
But if you get MIA at +5 or you simply decide not to hedge then there is no way you can lose unless Mansion just decides to run for the hills with your money.

[136913691369]

Bob or anyone else.. do you think the line at mansion (-110) will change for the worse by tomorrow?

[spino1i]

hmm given bob's analysis i think i might do this.. ill have to investigate the Mansion company though and figure out how much I trust it. But it does look like 450$ in EV just for free.

[ferb]

Sports interaction has miami at +5 -110. is this ok?

[Badger]

GAMBOOL! No hedging on this one. Also as far as Catamite's offer for the kickback- I went through him for the Tottenham bet. I have no reason to suspect he won't kick back $50, and was told it would take a while. Anyways, I went through with my deposit/betting and received my tottenham bet back no problem. It's not like you're risking anything by going through him.