"I have a big hand and pot odds. I fold" - Page 6

adanthar · #51 05-04-2006, 02:05 PM

Like I said, the hand on its own is almost indefensible. It's largely a matter of timing tells and non-quantifiable stuff, and the point is that I was overwhelmingly sure of being beaten that particular time. I'll probably never make this fold again because it'll never come up, and the argument I'm trying to make is not about the hand at all.

#52 05-04-2006, 02:06 PM

OK OK we get it. Great point, lousy example. Let's not kill the mystique here.

sunrise · #53 05-04-2006, 02:10 PM

concerning hand #1
So there's 3,000 in the pot when BB bets some random number of chips. First of all I think the random number of chips would be better if it was known, but lets say its 1200 coming to the 4200 you estimated you would win.
So you're being offered 3.5:1 on your money.

Now I can't go look up the probability of hitting quads where 3 of your card on the board. Stupid firewall here at work [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Isn't the odds of villain betting the Q outweigh the odds of villain betting the J??

I can see a lot of people playing J10 or JX like this. I can also see a lot of people playing AQ, KQ, and Q10 like this too.

You never represented strength after the flop and with AQ, or KQ is not the BB priced in for a call from the SB's seemingly donkish bet on the turn??

Like I said before I dont know the probabilities of hitting quads but I know its pretty damn slim. I'm thinking your call may be wrong 1 in every 1000 times or more. Based on that I can't see a fold.

But of course if your gut says he has the J, then I guess listen to your gut.

AlphaWice · #54 05-04-2006, 02:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1:

'Dise 30r, 100/200 just after the rebuy. [I have AA.] I have 2600 chips I have 1600 behind and will win 4200 when I am good, but don't feel like bothering and muck anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is how you win the $215 $1M Guaranteed.

#55 05-04-2006, 02:20 PM

[ QUOTE ]
concerning hand #1
So there's 3,000 in the pot when BB bets some random number of chips. First of all I think the random number of chips would be better if it was known, but lets say its 1200 coming to the 4200 you estimated you would win.
So you're being offered 3.5:1 on your money.

Now I can't go look up the probability of hitting quads where 3 of your card on the board. Stupid firewall here at work [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
Isn't the odds of villain betting the Q outweigh the odds of villain betting the J??

I can see a lot of people playing J10 or JX like this. I can also see a lot of people playing AQ, KQ, and Q10 like this too.

You never represented strength after the flop and with AQ, or KQ is not the BB priced in for a call from the SB's seemingly donkish bet on the turn??

Like I said before I dont know the probabilities of hitting quads but I know its pretty damn slim. I'm thinking your call may be wrong 1 in every 1000 times or more. Based on that I can't see a fold.

But of course if your gut says he has the J, then I guess listen to your gut.

[/ QUOTE ]

The probability of hitting quads is actually pretty irrelevant here.

sunrise · #56 05-04-2006, 02:41 PM

can you explain why it is irrelevant?

Foucault · #57 05-04-2006, 02:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
can you explain why it is irrelevant?

[/ QUOTE ]

True or false: Since the odds of your opponent being dealt 88+ are less than 5%, you should always be willing to get it in with pocket 7's pre-flop, since there is a 95%+ chance that you are either a coin flip or way ahead.

sunrise · #58 05-04-2006, 03:04 PM

How does this explain why it is irrelevant??

Anyway your question does not sound like a true or false question anyhow. Based on pure statistics, the answer is true. However there's always going to be more to the equation. Stack sizes...position, reads, raises, PF vs post flop, # of players...etc....
So my answer would be conditional, therefore I cannot say either way.

Given the AA problem in hand 1 I'm just considering the pure statistical nature of the problem. As I figure it there are 40 cards left after we subtract Adanthar's hand, the board cards, the burn cards, and the SB's hand.
Villain can have 1 J out of his 2 cards. 1/40 x 2 = 1/20.
So is it not a 5% chance he has the J??

NHFunkii · #59 05-04-2006, 03:12 PM

no, it's not. You're ignoring other information we have, such as how he played the hand, which changes the probability of the hand he has.
Also why are you subtracting 'the burn cards'? I mean... what?

THEOSU · #60 05-04-2006, 03:13 PM

Adanthar,

I like the point you're trying to make here, although for the most part we're too focused on the hand to care. I find myself guilty of this an awful lot, where I have half of my stack out there and need to protect it, even though I'm almost certainly a greater than 3-1 dog. In fact, this is one of the things I'm working on, making sure I do not get into this situation with a hand that I may feel I cannot lay down.

If you watch some of the top players (Daniel Negreanu is the most obvious example of this, but there are several others) they will have no problem getting away from a hand if they know they are beat, regardless of the damage it has inflicted and what it leaves them with.