Israel's Attack on Lebanon and Hezbollah

[ACPlayer]

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btw, Israel would not be too pleased if the Hez released the hostages.

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Source for this odious statement?

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Just an opinion. Personal conclusion. If I were them, and was using an excuse to wipe out the Hez, I would want to finish the job. Unless of course the intention was just to cause random destruction, which I dont think it was.

[jman220]

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I think there are dueling definitions of "this" confusing the issue.

If "this" is referring to precipitating the current conflict "this" has everything to do with the hostages.

If "this" is referring to WHY the taking of hostages was able to precipitate the level of response, or if "this" is referring to the importance of the hostages in reaching a cease fire, than "this" has little to do with the hostages.

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I'll give ACPLAYER the benefit of the doubt and assume you're right.

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Well, he gave you outs but you insist on putting your foot in your mouth:

The definition of this per JMan:

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I agree, Hezbollah should release its hostages so that we can end this.

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this here refers to the conflict as it is now happening, not the cause of the conflict. That is how I read this simple statement, "Hez releases ... we end this"

btw, Israel would not be too pleased if the Hez released the hostages. Risking another Poker Player analogy, when I hold a straight flush, I dont want the opponent folding.

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ACPLAYER,
I really am not seeing how you're not following me, so I'll try one more time.

1. The current conflict happenned because of the hostages, it forced Israel's hand, the hostages were the "flash-point."
2. The current conflict is not only about the hostages, it is also about rockets being fired into Israel for weeks, and the fact that Southern Lebanon is a defacto autonomous zone with a roaming enemy militia that has grown in power over the years due to the fact that it has gone unchallenged.
3. If Hezbollah were willing to release the hostages, IMO, Israel would do a back-channel behind the scenes deal where both sides could declare some sort of "victory," and the violence could end. I believe this because I think the whole thing was staged by Iran which is pulling the strings, and Israel doesn't want to be in the position it was forced into anymore than Lebanon wants to be in this position.

[jman220]

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btw, Israel would not be too pleased if the Hez released the hostages.

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Source for this odious statement?

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Just an opinion. Personal conclusion. If I were them, and was using an excuse to wipe out the Hez, I would want to finish the job. Unless of course the intention was just to cause random destruction, which I dont think it was.

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ACPLAYER,
I think you are flat wrong in that Israel wants to be in this situation. They were having enough problems with the Gaza kidnapping without having to deal with this [censored].

[ACPlayer]

I agree with 1 and 3. Unqualified.


Not sure of 2 as I recall reading that both sides have regularly violated each others territories. My impression is that recently there has been very limited Hez aggression over the blue line, though they may well have been massing forces in violation of the UN resolutions.

[ACPlayer]

I did not say they wanted to be in this position.

I said, that now that they are in this position, they probably want as much time as possible to reach whatever objectives they had. If the Hez handed the two back, their time to finish the job would be cut short and that, IMO, at least some on the Israeli side would not be pleased.

[jman220]

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I agree with 1 and 3. Unqualified.


Not sure of 2 as I recall reading that both sides have regularly violated each others territories. My impression is that recently there has been very limited Hez aggression over the blue line, though they may well have been massing forces in violation of the UN resolutions.

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Hezbollah has been digging tunnels and preparing for this for years (as opposed to disarming per UN Resolution). It even caught Israel off-guard.

[ACPlayer]

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I agree with 1 and 3. Unqualified.


Not sure of 2 as I recall reading that both sides have regularly violated each others territories. My impression is that recently there has been very limited Hez aggression over the blue line, though they may well have been massing forces in violation of the UN resolutions.

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Hezbollah has been digging tunnels and preparing for this for years (as opposed to disarming per UN Resolution). It even caught Israel off-guard.

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I agree it seems that way.

Do you have statistics on cross border violations (as opposed to UN resolution violations) in the past year or so? Do you know if Israel has been sending drones/reccy flights over Lebanon prior to this conflagration? Specifically, I cannot find corroboration to the idea that the Hez has been actively attacking (as opposed to, perhaps preparing to attack/defend) Israel.

[jman220]

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Do you have statistics on cross border violations (as opposed to UN resolution violations) in the past year or so?

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I was under the impression that Hezbollah Rockets had been hitting Northern Israel (although not in nearly as great numbers) for several weeks leading up to the current conflict. Unfortunately a google search of hezbollah + rocket attacks right now does not turn up anything useful on this question, so I'm just relying on my memory.

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Do you know if Israel has been sending drones/reccy flights over Lebanon prior to this conflagration?

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I have no statistics on this, but I'm sure they have, and I have no problem with this.

[NapHead]

Hezbollah attacks across northern border May 2000- Jun 2006

March 2002

On March 12, two guerrillas crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel and opened fire with automatic weapons and grenades on passing cars, killing five civilians and an army officer and wounding seven before they were hunted down and killed by Israeli soldiers. According to Israeli military officials, the gunmen used a specially-constructed ladder (subsequently recovered by Israeli soldiers) to climb over the electric security fence without being detected.

Although the identity of the assailants has not yet been determined, Israeli investigators have said that Hezbollah assisted the attackers in scaling the fence. Significantly, representatives of UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, have not cast serious doubt on the claim. Israel has not retaliated for the attack, but sent a message to Syria through the United States warning that another attack across the border will not be tolerated. "I think that the Israelis have been so abnormally quiet about it because they know just how grave a situation they could be getting into," said a UNIFIL official interviewed by The Daily Star (Beirut) on March 27.

March 2002 attack

[jman220]

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Hezbollah attacks across northern border May 2000- Jun 2006

March 2002

On March 12, two guerrillas crossed from Lebanon into northern Israel and opened fire with automatic weapons and grenades on passing cars, killing five civilians and an army officer and wounding seven before they were hunted down and killed by Israeli soldiers. According to Israeli military officials, the gunmen used a specially-constructed ladder (subsequently recovered by Israeli soldiers) to climb over the electric security fence without being detected.

Although the identity of the assailants has not yet been determined, Israeli investigators have said that Hezbollah assisted the attackers in scaling the fence. Significantly, representatives of UNIFIL, the UN peacekeeping force in south Lebanon, have not cast serious doubt on the claim. Israel has not retaliated for the attack, but sent a message to Syria through the United States warning that another attack across the border will not be tolerated. "I think that the Israelis have been so abnormally quiet about it because they know just how grave a situation they could be getting into," said a UNIFIL official interviewed by The Daily Star (Beirut) on March 27.

March 2002 attack

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27 May 2006 - An IDF soldier was wounded when Katyushas were fired at an army base at Mt. Meron in the upper Galilee.

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I knew I wasn't imagining the whole "rockets were being fired previously" thing. I'm pretty sure there were rockets being fired almost daily in the weeks leading up to this conflict, but they were just mostly hitting empty space, because there weren't nearly as many being fired as there are now.