Another Mansion free bet

[108]

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95% of the questions posted in this thread could be answered in about 3 minutes through live chat with mansion (or whatever other book the question is about).

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Not really a valid point, since at least yesterday Mansion's live chat was not working and Pinnacle does not have one.

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I emailed Pinnacle support three times with different questions. Each one was replied to within 30 mins, with accurate human-written responses.

[zutmin]

Roethlisbger just had an emergency appendectomy and will not be playing in this game [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

What are the odds of the Steelers covering this one now? D'oh!

[mosta]

I know next to nothing about sports betting or this year's football teams--but doesn't it seem like Mansion must have a pretty strong read on this game to take this risk? I mean they probably didn't pick which bet to to give a free roll on randomly, right? So given that, is the smart play for an actual sports bettor to take their side?

[zutmin]

Charlie Batch gonna get it done?

[Ken_AA]

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I know next to nothing about sports betting or this year's football teams--but doesn't it seem like Mansion must have a pretty strong read on this game to take this risk? I mean they probably didn't pick which bet to to give a free roll on randomly, right? So given that, is the smart play for an actual sports bettor to take their side?

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No Mansion just wants a whole bunch of peope to have a whole bunch of their money in their site the first week of football games.

Most poker players have no idea how much some people bet on sports games. The Max bet on these books is always over 5K and there are many sports bettors who have to have multiple accounts so they can get the amount they want down on a game. Mansion is hoping to snag a few of these types to their site with this promo.

Ken

[Ken_AA]

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Roethlisbger just had an emergency appendectomy and will not be playing in this game [img]/images/graemlins/ooo.gif[/img]

What are the odds of the Steelers covering this one now? D'oh!

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The line moved to -2.5 before being pulled from most places. The major result of this now is it makes hedging impossible as you would have to buy so many points it would really eat up a ton of EV, or leave your self exposed to be middled (lose both bets).

Ken

[grac]

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I know next to nothing about sports betting or this year's football teams--but doesn't it seem like Mansion must have a pretty strong read on this game to take this risk? I mean they probably didn't pick which bet to to give a free roll on randomly, right? So given that, is the smart play for an actual sports bettor to take their side?

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This is an awesome promo and now with Big Ben going down it looks even better for mansion. I think this will be a continuing promo for a few years on these first reg season games. I know I will be placing a few bets on week 1 which I would have done elsewhere anyway, just to prove to them that this works and so they continue to offer the promo.

[Little_Luck]

Mansion wins, Ben isn't playing. Line could move to even by game time. I am really regretting the fact that I was waiting to hedge. Charlie Batch sucks big donkey nuts.

Time to pray for a miracle!

I am thinking there is still some chance at hedging by paying strict attention to in-game lines, particularly the halftime line. If Steelers happen to end the half with the lead, there may be a few risk-free hedges available to play.

[jrz1972]

I just happened to be surfing FootballGuys when this news broke, and I managed to lock in a last-second hedge at Paradise. (I had been waiting for a Neteller transfer to come through so I could hedge at Pinnacle or Bodog for a signup bonus, but when I read about Roethlisberger it obviously became incumbent on me to hedge immediately at anyplace that would front my InstaCash fee).

They were listing the line at Pit -3.5, so I just bought the point and locked in a $425 win. I really wish I could have gotten my hedge bet in earlier, but I'm glad I happened to be online at the time or I would have missed out on the hedge altogether.

[MicroBob]

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I know next to nothing about sports betting or this year's football teams--but doesn't it seem like Mansion must have a pretty strong read on this game to take this risk? I mean they probably didn't pick which bet to to give a free roll on randomly, right? So given that, is the smart play for an actual sports bettor to take their side?

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No Mansion just wants a whole bunch of peope to have a whole bunch of their money in their site the first week of football games.

Most poker players have no idea how much some people bet on sports games. The Max bet on these books is always over 5K and there are many sports bettors who have to have multiple accounts so they can get the amount they want down on a game. Mansion is hoping to snag a few of these types to their site with this promo.

Ken

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Right. It's the first game of the year and will be on national TV.
And the Steelers are super-duper popular and are the defending champions. That's why they had the promo on that game (instead of on a couple of last place teams that don't have as much nationwide interest).


Mansion doesn't have any 'read' on this game that anybody else on these forums has.


This line was pretty much the same as at other books.
All books usually set the line to have balanced 50/50 betting on each side. If more betting comes on one side then they adjust the line to try to balance it out.

Then they make a ton of money off the 5% (or whatever) juice that they charge while having practically zero interest in who actually wins the game (they will be paying out the same whether Team A or Team B wins).

This is how it usually works as I understand it (with some exceptions in there).


Nobody knew whether Ben was going to play or not. At first, it looked like he was going to be good for week 1.
But things changed recently obviously and it's highly unlikely that Mansion had any advance knowledge that nobody else had.


So, we got the free bet, and it just happened that their star player is out so we now don't get as much value in that bet (and it becomes difficult to hedge).
Our "loss" per-se. But since it's a free freaking bet it's not exactly the end of the world. And PIT could still pull it out.


Also - if Ben was going to play it's kind of tough for a book to have such an advance read as to say that the defending super-bowl champs are going to be unable to cover the spread with their strong home-field advantage.