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#41
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[ QUOTE ]
If he loses his money he may leave (or at least start playing normal). If he doubles up it's fairly likely he will not want to continue pushing with a double-sized stack. So you have to consider that you're probably only getting one shot at this. So I would treat this more carefully than I would against a maniac who I am certain will continue spewing until broke. As for A6o, it should be pretty easy to get a rough idea of your equity using PokerStove, but I'd be pretty surprised if there is much of any value in calling with it. Against someone pushing with the top 50% of their hands I am guessing you'd need about ATo+/77+ to call. [/ QUOTE ] I agree very much with this. |
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#42
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[ QUOTE ]
I love the comment about not waiting for a huge hand here; it's very true but I think a lot of high stakes players even miss that point. [/ QUOTE ] No it's not true and it's the "call with A7o" brigade who are missing the point. I fully accept the analysis that calling A7o (or whatever) is +EV. But marginally +EV. So marginal that you could easily lose. In fact you could lose several times in a row. In fact you could wait hundreds of times before showing a profit. And who's to say if you do double up the fish a couple of times he wont then leave. Or at the very least alter his game. You might only get one shot at actually calling him so you wait for a big hand. |
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#43
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[ QUOTE ]
No it's not true and it's the "call with A7o" brigade who are missing the point. I fully accept the analysis that calling A7o (or whatever) is +EV. But marginally +EV. So marginal that you could easily lose. In fact you could lose several times in a row. In fact you could wait hundreds of times before showing a profit. And who's to say if you do double up the fish a couple of times he wont then leave. Or at the very least alter his game. You might only get one shot at actually calling him so you wait for a big hand. [/ QUOTE ] Nope....sorry bud, but you're logic is off.....Reread this entire thread....Many reasons for NOT turning down a slightly +EV situation have been explained. |
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#44
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I think there is 3 really good reasons to call him in coinflip situations:
1) If you call and he wins he will probably stop doing this and you can resume your normal game 2) If you call and win he will likely go on monkey tilt 3)Your bankroll is probably a lot bigger than his so you can afford to gamble 4)This will do wonders for your image 5)Dont let a fish push you around Ok so that was five but w/e |
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#45
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In my experience people start playing a lot better when they get a double stack. They may start off playing quite badly, but then reality hits. They tighten up condiderably or leave the table.
You don't want him to stop pushing or leave. Unless you think he'll continue to play this way with a double stack, you should pick a better hand to call his all-in. IMO call with 88+ and AT+, which gives you a good +EV expectation and small risk of someone else catching him first. |
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#46
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2) If you call and win he will likely go on monkey tilt [/ QUOTE ] How, exactly, can he play worse? |
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#47
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] No it's not true and it's the "call with A7o" brigade who are missing the point. I fully accept the analysis that calling A7o (or whatever) is +EV. But marginally +EV. So marginal that you could easily lose. In fact you could lose several times in a row. In fact you could wait hundreds of times before showing a profit. And who's to say if you do double up the fish a couple of times he wont then leave. Or at the very least alter his game. You might only get one shot at actually calling him so you wait for a big hand. [/ QUOTE ] Nope....sorry bud, but you're logic is off.....Reread this entire thread....Many reasons for NOT turning down a slightly +EV situation have been explained. [/ QUOTE ] No my logic isn't off. There have not been any good reasons explained at all because they totally fail to model the fish's behaviour. If you call as a 52% fav and lose he will stop pushing. Turning down a marginally +EV situation is correct if you expect a much bigger +EV situation to come along in the near future and, most importantly, the very act of calling him and losing will CHANGE his future behaviour. This isn't some coin-tossing game against an automaton. Take the simplest case where the fish is only pushing until he doubles up or gets busted. The strategy of waiting for a premium hand is going to give you an extra EV of 20% of his bankroll. |
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#48
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A few years ago, I was playing live (10 handed) and a similar situation came up. This guy was reraising all-in (sometimes blind). One regular at the table says, "4's or better and I'm calling." Sure enough, the guy raised all-in blind and the regular called with 44. With a board of A85102 the regular tables his 4's. The guy opens one card, an 8. Then the next, an A. He scoops the pot. Later on, he nearly made a kid cry by snapping his AA with 83o for like $1200.
In that situation, I just waited for a premium hand. In this situation, 88+, A10+ or KQ and I'm calling. |
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#49
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[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] 2) If you call and win he will likely go on monkey tilt [/ QUOTE ] How, exactly, can he play worse? [/ QUOTE ] This is the 8th time he's pushed over a raise, so he's up ~30BBs with no showdown. That's not bad poker. To the OP: in my experience a lot of dudes will hit and run after they double up after a questionable allin. If this guy is like them then you'll want to pick your spot. |
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#50
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[ QUOTE ]
If you call as a 52% fav and lose he will stop pushing. [/ QUOTE ] says who? [ QUOTE ] Turning down a marginally +EV situation is correct if you expect a much bigger +EV situation to come along in the near future [/ QUOTE ] That's only true if we're sure villian is leaving if he busts or doubles up....We have no reason to believe that. [ QUOTE ] the very act of calling him and losing will CHANGE his future behaviour. [/ QUOTE ] Again, says who?....Maybe he'll continue to do this with a 4k stack...That would be an even better reason for us to take every available +EV opportunity to stack him (remember that hero has a deep stack....even if he double villian up he has a good chance of getting it all back) [ QUOTE ] Take the simplest case where the fish is only pushing until he doubles up or gets busted. [/ QUOTE ] again, this isn't heads-up and we have no reason to believe villian will leave after he doubles up or gets busted... |
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