three river call/fold decisions

[KaneKungFu123]

If you bet T8o on the turn there, then why do you think its unreasonable for your opponent to check-raise a non-club overpair on the turn? If you had Ac-x, are you betting the turn?

[samoleus]

Aggie,

this is a very reasonable argument. However, I think the majority of posters seem to overestimate the frequency with which I bet turns when I call a flop bet and the turn is checked to me. While I will often bet if I think I am behind but can win with a bet OR if I think I am ahead and want to build a pot, I often check back with marginal hands and/or draws. (I also bet with my draws, but I often return checks). Keep in mind that while I am not averse to playing big pots with marginal holdings as evidenced by my call here, I far prefer to play lots of small pots. Therefore I think it is a serious fundamental mistake to assume that I will automatically bet this turn. ... My assumptions may well have been wrong, but I believed that this guy did not assume by any means that I would bet the turn with whatever I had.

[samoleus]

because I think that this (and most opponents) would try to protect an overpair by betting the turn instead of trying for a check-raise.

If I had the naked flush ace, my decision on whether or not to bet is too opponent dependent to answer.

[KaneKungFu123]

If he bet the turn in hand 1 what do you do?

[samoleus]

cero, this is an outstanding point. Although I wanted to protect my hand and thus got myself into a tough decision, it is true that against this opponent, the correct play would have been relatively easy to decipher by his river action. For that reason alone (the difficulty of the turn decision as opposed to the relative ease of a river decision if I had checked back) might mean that it might have been worth giving up the equity in protecting my hand by just checking back on the turn. That is a really good point.

[samoleus]

fold to a normal bet

[jamazon]

I really enjoy your thought process Samoleus. Unlike most "top players" in this forum, you aren't afraid to let others know what you are thinking before making a decision (props to strassa2 also). That shows me what a top player is all about. Hopefully, I'll learn something from it.

Thanks.

[samoleus]

OK, Strassa summed up the most important point in this hand. Unlike Bld, Strassa himself and some others, Jackal will not make very thin value bets. This is especially true in this case where we both have large stacks. In this situation, there is almost no way that he is value betting a hand that I can beat. When he makes that river bet, he is either on a bluff or has me beat. He is NOT betting AA-JJ this way.

Because Jackal is a tricky player and because he knows my opening standards are pretty loose (that is an understatement), his reraise of my opening raise doesn't have to be a premium hand by any means.

Now when he bets the flop, he could have a variety of hands just continuing. But when I cold call that flop, the turn looks like a disaster for him if he was just screwing around with big cards. The top card has paired AND the flush got there. I would expect him to switch into check calling (or maybe check folding) mode now with a big pair that does not contain a spade. Therefore, after his turn bet, I put him on a big pair WITH a spade, AK/AQ including the ace of spades, an underfull house, A-10, K-10, Q-10, or J-10, or a flush.

Now Jackal knows that with the strength that he has shown (including preflop reraise), I am not likely to have called flop AND turn bets with just some random pocket pair. He has to put me on a big hand at this point. Yet he still fires big on the river. ... Even if he had an AA type hand that he was not willing to give up on, he would almost certainly check and call rather than bet here. So I had to put him on a range of hands here.

After his river bet, the only hands that I can see myself beating are A-K/A-Q with the ace of spades (and I question whether or not he would fire a third bullet there - though it is certainly possible) and J-10. On the other hand, I think A-10, K-10, 88, 33, and possibly 44 are in his hand range, as well as any flush. As I explained, I do NOT think AA or similar hand is in his range any more for the reasons that Strassa and now I have elucidated.

Therefore, putting it all together, I think there is a much higher likelihood of me being behind than ahead here. Of course, the pot is laying me better than 2-1 on my money for the river call. However, I think Jackal is ahead much more often than that: I'd say 3 or 4 to 1. I folded.

Thoughts?

[samoleus]

appreciate that jamazon!

[samoleus]

Neo, your point about saying that I posted this hand because I won it is silly. Don't really see the point of posting that even if you believe it to be true.

On the other hand, your point about the fact that my read/analysis really needs to be accurate is a very good one. Indeed, if my read is off, I can be in disastrous shape.