hero vomits and...? ($150 Stars) - Page 5

uclabruinz · #41 04-06-2006, 02:17 AM

While pot odds give you an edge to push, the bottom line is that pushing makes you a 53% favorite to be eliminated from the tournament.

Do we have a better chance to win this tournament if we push and are out 53% of the time and double up 47% of the time to 20BBs? Or, do we have a better chance if we survive 100% of the time with our 10BBs?

Ansky · #42 04-06-2006, 02:20 AM

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Ansky, you keep saying that this is no time to pass up edges. The problem is, we do not have an edge. If the read and resulting range are correct, and I think they probably are, then we are actually a slight dog.

Pass this up and put your 10BBs to work with first-in vigorishness.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't need to be >50% to have an edge. If we are 47% against his range we have an edge.

Ansky · #43 04-06-2006, 02:22 AM

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While pot odds give you an edge to push, the bottom line is that pushing makes you a 53% favorite to be eliminated from the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is by no means the bottom line.

And I don't beleive this BS that we are 100% sure of his range. Give me a break.

uclabruinz · #44 04-06-2006, 02:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
While pot odds give you an edge to push, the bottom line is that pushing makes you a 53% favorite to be eliminated from the tournament.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is by no means the bottom line.

And I don't beleive this BS that we are 100% sure of his range. Give me a break.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you can argue about reads/ranges, but not with me. I'm just trusting bestcellar's read and analyzing the situation based on that, and that gives us a 53% chance of being eliminated by pushing.

Ansky · #45 04-06-2006, 02:32 AM

You should realize that it is arbitrary (and wrong) to say that being 53% chance to be eliminated is inherently bad, even with a good price.

uclabruinz · #46 04-06-2006, 02:36 AM

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You should realize that it is arbitrary (and wrong) to say that being 53% chance to be eliminated is inherently bad, even with a good price.

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Thanks for telling me what I should and should not realize. I don't think I ever said that getting into a situation where you are 53% to be eliminated is always bad regardless of the price.

I do think it is inherently bad to distort my position to try to make your point, though.

Ansky · #47 04-06-2006, 02:38 AM

Hm, I did indeed misintepret. My bad.

My point still holds though about not being opposed to taking a <50% shot with an edge.

uclabruinz · #48 04-06-2006, 02:49 AM

I think in order to decide whether pushing is correct, you have to be able to answer the below question:

[ QUOTE ]
Do we have a better chance to win this tournament if we push and are out 53% of the time and double up 47% of the time to 20BBs? Or, do we have a better chance if we survive 100% of the time with our 10BBs?

[/ QUOTE ]

roo400 · #49 04-06-2006, 02:53 AM

I wouldn't just call preflop with JJ with this stack. I'd simply push first to act.

Ansky · #50 04-06-2006, 02:54 AM

I'm going to bed, and I don't really see how anyone can answer that question.

But, here's another point. There is a diminsihing marginal return on every edge you pass up. Each time you are losing the total amount you double up to when you pass up a chance and let the blinds come and get some of your chips.