No pair... pot, make one pair... pot pot

[El Diablo]

Jason,

"shouldn't he realize that his calldown with JJ is the same calldown as with 55? "

Almost nobody thinks like this in these games.

You've said a lot that I agree with in your posts in this thread and a few things I disagree with.

One of the most important points you made imo was about firing that third barrel in spots when you know you are almost always good and often won't get called. People obviously realize that there's little value in such a bet. However, there's a ton of value in getting a lot of opponents to fold a lot of marginal hands that beat you on the turn because they expect a third barrel so often.

[LearnedfromTV]

[ QUOTE ]
But the only way for you to advertise your thin value bets (and thus get paid off) is to get them called which is normally going to be by a better hand OR to show it (which I don't think is often wise).

[/ QUOTE ]

Just lurking and soaking up the discussion, but I think I can add something here:

If Strassa checks the river, his opponent sees the hand and knows that he'll check behind with this weak-medium made hand. I think this is what he (Strassa) doesn't want, because of its implications for future turn bets. In other words, he'd rather have his hand shown after betting, if at all.

I have no idea whether this outweighs the reasons to check, but it seems to be a part of the equation.

[Jason Strasser (strassa2)]

Do you really think I'm behind here often enough for this to be significantly -EV? Why have you also decided to rule out a queen? I think a lot of players will play a queen like this.

-Jason

[luckychewy]

[ QUOTE ]
Do you really think I'm behind here often enough for this to be significantly -EV? Why have you also decided to rule out a queen? I think a lot of players will play a queen like this.

-Jason

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but your hand is good enough for showdown that I think the ammount of the bet is big enough that it CAN make it significantly -EV. Reason being is it's more than half a buyin for this limit and the way it played out is that unless he is tricky, you have him beat. I honestly don't think a queen would be played this way on average enough for this to be a profitable bet. I do however think worse hands like diablo said, 55-JJ being put in the same range, would pay off a lesser ammount something to the effect of 500-600.

[adsanman12]

[ QUOTE ]
shouldn't he realize that his calldown with JJ is the same calldown as with 55?

[/ QUOTE ]


I've always thought you give avg opponents too much credit imo- and i think a lot of this hand hinges on the type of opponent you are playing. That said i think that this river bet is rarely -ev; and i definitely like the overall line fwiw. I like it now but dont think its 'worth' arguing w/ people who disagree b/c imo the river decision is very close to even EV; however if your opponent had just moved up- or was on a big swing (good/bad) or thoughrt you bluffed too much, or usually played limit etc. etc.- anything that might promote hero calls then i think a river bet is mandatory.

EDIT: This is durrrr btw my friend was logged in on my comp

[Chris Daddy Cool]

jason,

just combed through this thread, and a couple of thoughts:

i came to the conclusion a while back ago that for every additional dollar that goes into the pot with your type of hand the less and less likely your hand is still best at the end especially when it comes to a player calling pot sized betting. i think you are overestimating a players ability to even call with KQ or a weak ace here, let alone JJ or 55.

i think you are overestimating how often people will call you with marginal hands here. you made a post that said JJ and 55 should be the exact same in this situation if they think they are snapping off a bluff, but that really isn't the case cuz it would be pretty sick if you were doing all of this with 88 or 76 and he decided to call you with 55. even on scary ass boards where "all you beat is a bluff" it is still comforting to the player that at least they have a hand that is a little bit stronger.

when betting the river with the best hand (or what you think is probably the best hand) a player will typically have two thoughts on the river.

1) How much value can I get out of my hand since it is (or probably is) best?

2) Will my opponent call with a worse hand?

Often times if the answer to 2 is "no" then he won't worry about 1 if his hand is only marginally strong himself. however there is a lot to be said about betting anyways even if you were 95% sure you won't get called, mainly in that if you make a habit out of checking behind too many rivers, people will start making looser turn peels on you hoping that they can show down their hand for that one bet. if your opponent knows you will fire another big bet on the river, they will fold to you more on the turn.

[FlowersByIrene]

I really wonder what your main goal was betting the river in position. The best that you could hope for is a call from a weaker hand, which seems very unlikely to me.

so you bet the river putting an extra $1100 on the line:

1. he calls you with a weaker hand (very unlikely in my opinion) + $1100
2. he calls with the better hand - $1100
3. he comes over the top with the better hand - $1100
4. he comes over the top wth a weaker hand (you cant call) -$1100

I dont really see the proffit in betting out on the river in position in a hand where you dont really know where you stand. I say check it.

I think you played this hand perfectly btw and i like your hand analysis

[Ansky]

Thats quite the mathematical analysis.

Clearly the OP beleives that #1 is the most likely situation, and thats why he thinks its neutral or +EV.

[FlowersByIrene]

this just seems the most logical way to make this decision. However, if strassa is so sure that he is in front and will be called much more often by a weak hand, of course this is the best move. I just don't see, given the way this hand was played, how he can be so sure.

[TheWorstPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
4. he comes over the top wth a weaker hand (you cant call) -$1100


[/ QUOTE ]
Good to know folding the winner only costs you the river action.