JTs settle a disagreement with DeathDonkey

[baronzeus]

Well, I really don't want SB to 3bet me, as I suspect he will fairly often, so I usually call. At the same time, this helps balance the "implied odds" question. I think SB will check the turn with overcards as often as he will 3bet the flop with an overpair. However, the chance of taking a free card by just calling the flop is extremely small, since one of the passive middle players will bet the turn if the PFR checks the turn.


The more that I think about it, the more I like a raise...



Edit: reading hands posted on twoplustwo has made me realize that i've gotten too much into a robotic rhythm...I've been calling this for a long time without really remembering why or considering the benefits of raising.

[The DaveR]

[ QUOTE ]
I raise this all day, every day.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto.

[helpmeout]

I raise, a lot of players still bet overcards here. Its not like he always has a big pair.

People in the middle still call 2 more with their cheese anyway.

[The Bryce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If we put 3 bets into a 20 bet pot with 40% equity we net a gain of 2.7 bets (20/3*0.4). If we put 2 bets in with 40% equity we net 4 bets (20/2*0.4). You'll notice that this happens to be a huge freaking difference! Double the pot size and you double the disparity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Dude, your maths is wrong. I'm sorry. See my above post.

edit- To clearly see why dividing cost into pot size is incorrect, imagine that you were almost allin, and only had to pay 0.1 BB. Somehow your value is now bigger than the pot size!

[/ QUOTE ]

Oh [censored]. I always assumed that EV was proportional to cost, like leveraging returns on an investment. Now that you mention it, though, that doesn't make sense at all. This basically means that all my poker to date has been based on deeply flawed logic. Wow.

Jason, I apologize.

[tolbiny]

[ QUOTE ]
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[ QUOTE ]

1) As pots become larger it becomes more and more valuable to take "free" (why don't we call them cheap?) cards. This pot is already a pretty fair size.[ QUOTE ]

This doesn't make sense. The value of a free card decreases with every person in the pot and with the number of outs you have. With many people in the pot and lots of outs, the value of a free card is pretty low.

Raise now or call.. doesn't matter much. There are 13 sb in the pot. Something like 5-6 of those are "yours". A raise now makes you something like 1.5sb. Waiting to raise, not sure, but it's not much more or less than this. Most of the money you'll make this hand is already in the pot.


[/ QUOTE ]

This makes absolutely no sense. As the pot gets larger draws become "cheaper" because the total expectation is higher.

[/ QUOTE ]

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Grah, stuff like this makes me so angry when I'm posting record slides. I want to yell at you guys, but it's probably a reasonably complex point. Think! If calling increases in value as you add bets to the pot then the value of seeing the same amount of cards for cheap also increases as you add bets. If you raise for a free card when you're getting exactly the odds to peel the flop you've basically gained nothing. Getting cheap cards in large pots basically equates to the EV happy dance. Peeling does get cheaper in big pots, but free cards get way better than peeling. What's better, 10:2 or 10:3? Can we also see how the bet saved in a 20:2 vs 20:3 example is more valuable than the previous one? Yes we can.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are way off here. the argument isn't weather or not getting higher pot odds is better, its weather getting a free card is better.

Two heads up matches, both of which you have a flush draw which has 17% equity on the turn. The cost of calling each bet is .34 (you expectation from both bets)- 1 = -.66. So you fold if 0.17 times the pot < .66.
Now heads up in a 5BB pot your EV is = (.17)(5) = .85 bets. If you are forced to call 1 bet then your EV is now equal to .85 + (-.66) = .19BB - your EV has droppend by .66 bets.
Now the same situation in a 10 bb pot EV = (.17)(10) = 1.7 bets. If you are forced to call 1 bet then your EV = 1.7 + (-.66) = 1.04 BBs. and your EV had sropped again by exactly .66 BBs.

The only thing that effects the EV change of your call in this situation is the number of other players in the hand. And in that instance the more players who call the bet the LESS your free card is worth- and since more players is more likely to correlate to a larger pot, on average, the bigger the pot the Less the free card is worth.

Simply put if you were playing at two tables one with a 5 bb pot and the other with a 10bb pot at the same stakes. You have the option of taking a free card on either table- your choice. How can picking one or the other increase your EV?

[Wynton]

I earlier said I preferred raise, noting that while I was concerned about a 3-bet, I actually thought it more likely than not - against an unknown - that sb would 3-bet. But others here have assumed a 3-bet is very likely. Perhaps this difference is because I play 5/10, and most of you are playing higher?

In any event, two questions here:
(1) How likely do we think a 3-bet is on this flop?
(2) What is the range that we put the sb on?

[Keepitsimple]

I would probably pop it up.

[newhizzle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I raise this all day, every day.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto.

[/ QUOTE ]

ive just briefly looked through all the replies here, so sorry if my reasoning has already been mentioned, but i think this is definately a raise as we cant expect SB to bet the turn and get 2 callers if a flush card hits, id raise now whlie people are willing to get their money in

i dont think its all that likely that SB will 3-bet or if he does that it will knock out everyone, but if he does and it dosent, thats great for us

would anyone consider not raising a set here?

i think theres too much stuff to depend on on the turn to just call here

i also raise preflop a lot

[DeathDonkey]

Hi Stox,

If I remember the conversation with Jason right, I didn't really feel too strongly about the flop play either way. I did say I would raise preflop 100% and I'm surprised nobody has commented on this. I also think the rest of the hand is interesting that Jason hasn't posted yet.

Anyway, a big argument I have for a flop raise is that this is a 5/10 6m game. We will get free cards we don't deserve here because opponents make mistakes more frequently here. You might not get your free card at 300/600 but they often do give it up here. Also, if the SB is aggressive enough to prevent us from getting a free card, he may also be aggressive enough to 3 bet a medium pocket pair or even AK on the flop which would make us a favorite so its not like he just has TT+ everytime.

One more thing is I understand if the turn comes a low spade you can raise the field sometimes but there are also plenty of scare cards (spades or not) that will make the turn action change drastically.

I'm glad to see so much disagreement in this thread at least. It's fun.

-DeathDonkey

[jason_t]

[ QUOTE ]

would anyone consider not raising a set here?


[/ QUOTE ]

This is a bad implicit argument. The equity of a set will not change that much on the turn but the equity of a flush draw will.