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#41
09-21-2007, 11:18 AM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
ya i'm really not sure about lowering IR .5.
i like Bernakne though, so i sorta trust him to figure out ways to prevent this from happening (obviously, a lot of stuff isn't in his control though). 
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#42
09-21-2007, 11:39 AM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
[ QUOTE ]
i'm a british online poker pro, so spend in pounds (which are strong) but earn in dollars [/ QUOTE ] This isn't a problem. Just decide what stakes to play by thinking about them in terms of pounds. If you are used to playing 10-20 (dollar), just start playing 15-30 (dollar) to maintain the same level of (pound) earning. Assuming you can beat the 15-30 dollar for the same rate as the 10-20 dollar.
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#43
09-21-2007, 11:45 AM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
[ QUOTE ]
Assuming you can beat the 15-30 dollar for the same rate as the 10-20 dollar. [/ QUOTE ] Well obviously he can't or he would be playing 15/30 already.
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#44
09-21-2007, 11:58 AM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
[ QUOTE ]
this could be a real problem for me, as i'm a british online poker pro, so spend in pounds (which are strong) but earn in dollars (which are weak and weakening), and also have quite a bit of money on poker sites in dollars (not loads by high stakes players' standards, but enough that a collapse would be painful for me). how likley to people think a collapse (or just a fairly dramatic decline over the next few years) is? there are sites where you can play in pounds, instead - do people think this is a sensible precaution to take? [/ QUOTE ] Late last year I had a bad day, losing 10 buyins. I took a week off, as I normally do when annoyed with poker. During that week, the USD fell a lot vs. the GBP and I effectively lost a further 4 buyins. I went on bankroll tilt and cashed it all out and started over. That was dumb - $300/hour down to playing $25 NL, and I'm still not close to playing $600 nine months later (I don't play that many hands). So, don't panic/tilt. However, I would suggest you consolidate and only play one site. You should make it a site that you can easily cash in and out of, preferably with minimal conversion fees. Then take out everything but 20 buyins, and obviously put more money in as need be. The exact number of buyins you leave in there and the frequency with which you fund your account depend on the fees for funding it. Put your new money in an instant access savings account. There're a couple out there in the UK that offer > 6.25% and have no withdrawl penalties. I pay top rate tax and still end up +£100 per month as a result, you are probably paying no tax at all and will get the full 6.25%. Profit.
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#45
09-21-2007, 12:12 PM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
On a related note, I'm in the UK. How would I go about buying gold? I don't want an actual lump of the stuff (sorry if this is naive), but I assume there're trackers for it? For gold companies?
It seems inconsistent of me to have money in a savings account at 6.4% but not in the stock market because I expect the market to fall in the near term, when there're stocks I can put money in that'll do better as the market does badly.
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#46
09-21-2007, 12:20 PM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
Scary? I dunno, pretty standard over the years in currency markets.
Euro debuted at 1.19, dropped 33% like a rock, now is up 16% from the initial release. Markets will continue to be volatile.
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#47
09-21-2007, 12:20 PM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
[ QUOTE ]
and since we are talking about currency conversion.. Ven-star has anyone ever used these guys? they claim to do large currency transactions (avg. is 150k) for private individuals at much better rates than banks. [/ QUOTE ] LOLLLLLLLLLLLLLLllllllll!
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#48
09-21-2007, 12:25 PM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
[ QUOTE ]
Scary? I dunno, pretty standard over the years in currency markets. Euro debuted at 1.19, dropped 33% like a rock, now is up 16% from the initial release. Markets will continue to be volatile. [/ QUOTE ] I was under the impression that the USD case was one of positive feedback. I don't know how much of the Euro's initial moves are down to standard volitility or concern about the actual system used, but I don't think it had such a large potential feedback component as the USD situation does.
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#49
09-21-2007, 12:25 PM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Only helps if there is wage inflation. Possible scenario is that wages stagnant, cost of living inflates... [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly what's been happening for years. [/ QUOTE ] No, it hasn't. Let's look at those who are in the bottom 20th% [not mean for quintile, but the point data] 2001 20th % income $17,970 in CPI-U adj $$$. 1980 20th % income $15,362 in CPI-U adj $$$. The entire bottom quintile is up same % as well. Around 17-20% real, inflation-adjusted gains over 20-22 years. When the poorest workers in this country are 20% better off after inflation, that means the sky is unlike to fall anytime soon.
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#50
09-21-2007, 12:36 PM
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Re: Some scary stuff about the dollar
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] [ QUOTE ] Only helps if there is wage inflation. Possible scenario is that wages stagnant, cost of living inflates... [/ QUOTE ] This is exactly what's been happening for years. [/ QUOTE ] No, it hasn't. Let's look at those who are in the bottom 20th% [not mean for quintile, but the point data] 2001 20th % income $17,970 in CPI-U adj $$$. 1980 20th % income $15,362 in CPI-U adj $$$. The entire bottom quintile is up same % as well. Around 17-20% real, inflation-adjusted gains over 20-22 years. When the poorest workers in this country are 20% better off after inflation, that means the sky is unlike to fall anytime soon. [/ QUOTE ] This would be true if you believe CPI = Inflation. I really don't think it does. Not even close. Especially for the bottom 20% of workers in the US.
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