pokerev, winning pots without showdown [theory]

[nuggetz87]

yeah i'm way confused by ZeKGB's graph. dunno how the blue stays above the red.

link to aejones/Fabian/kotkis graphs: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showfl...ue#Post11913386

i would pay a lot of money to be able to sweat kotkis IRL with explanations for a few hundred hands lol.

[carrotsnake]

wheee, <3 talking to kotkis [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[_dave_]

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wheee, <3 talking to kotkis [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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Please have him post some sick graphs here [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

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i would pay a lot of money to be able to sweat kotkis IRL with explanations for a few hundred hands lol.


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Me too.

[thedustbustr]

Here is my graph of the first 65000 hands of my career. i was probably running hot. this is from like 25nl to 400nl. time wise i guess this is from september 2005 to july 2006.

very interesting intersection when i moved from uNL to ssnl... could be a change in my game though.

[Dire]

I would wager if you went back to $25 NL again, you'd end up with a pretty similar graph. You're just not going to get that difference between your green and blue when your opponents are passive. This is why I think it's very dangerous to try to say anything about these graphs other than stating what they literally mean:

Your winnings at the micro stakes were mostly from showing down the best hand. Your winnings at the medium stakes were mostly from hands that did not go to showdown.

[BobboFitos]

ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

[Double Eagle]

The filters are the best part of this program. Use them to find some very interesting stuff.

I get owned (green line way below blue) in pots less than 20BB.



But not so much between 20BB and 50BB.



You can filter for strength of hand in various situations. Here's a graph of hands where I raise preflop and don't flop a pair. Looks like I give up way too easily when I face resistance in these situations.



And here's a graph where I filter for when I flop pairs less than TPTK as this is the point where my green and blue lines are roughly equal. Clearly I'm still playing those too weakly.



Finally, here's what happens when I flop TPTK or better after raising preflop. Notice how much higher the green line is than the blue line.


There's tons more obviously, and I'm just scratching the surface myself, but those that use this program just to gauge how they are running really are missing out.

[NoahSD]

Dave, you're awesome.

When will this program work with Holdem Manager so I can actually analyze all my HHs?

[gball]

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ive always maintained laggy play is the lower variance ride due to the major concept that pots won w/o showdown escape variance, ie. getting money into the pot which sees a showdown means the hot and cold ness factor predicates 'luck'. take it for what it's worth.

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OTOH, when playing LAG and running bad could mean that people happen to hold/catch hands they won't surrender to your aggression? Even more variance ?)

[yad]

It seems to me like looking at the green line compared to red or blue isn't really quite right. What we actually want to look at is:

Equity-adjusted green line vs equity-adjusted showdown winnings.

That is, the current red line vs the (green line + (red line - blue line)).

Is this right, or am I missing something?