Botting the WNBA Season... - Page 5

irisheyes · #41 07-05-2007, 12:19 AM

Can't speak to MLS, but for Copa America betjamaica has moneyline. I will check tomorrow for you when lines are available for the games.

Very nice work so far, Mr. Blue. Looking forward to your soccer bot.

MrBlueNose · #42 07-05-2007, 03:06 AM

MLS bot likes Houston to win 52% of the time tomorrow, so if you can get evens or better than that's the bet. I haven't set any official ruling yet for the bot in regard to when to bet, so I'll probably just keep listing the outputs for the first month and go from there.

irisheyes · #43 07-05-2007, 02:44 PM

Odd, MLS is not selectable for today on BetJM. No lines are yet posted.

AAmucked · #44 07-05-2007, 03:14 PM

I'm a noob as it comes to soccer betting, so by saying to bet Houston even you mean the three-way bet right, where you will only win if Houston wins outright and the match is not a draw?

MrBlueNose · #45 07-05-2007, 03:18 PM

That's weird - it is on Pinny, but just the spread. Ladbrokes have it too actually, but at 10/11 for Houston not worth the bet.

Tomorrows WNBA lines have been released so I'll post predictions just now....

Old System:
New York +10 vs Detroit: Likes New York to lose by no more than five. Also likes Over 140 by 5 points.
Seattle -1.5 vs Houston: Actually predicts Houston to win this one by 1 point. Says Under 155.5 by 1.5 points.
Sacramento -2.5 vs Minnesota: Predicts Sacramento by 2.5 points, so no bet. Likes the over by 3 points.
Connecticut +6 vs Phoenix: Likes Phoenix to win, but only by 2 points, so Connecticut would be the bet. Also under 168 by 2 points.

New System: Likes Connecticut +6 and New York at +10.

MrBlueNose · #46 07-05-2007, 03:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm a noob as it comes to soccer betting, so by saying to bet Houston even you mean the three-way bet right, where you will only win if Houston wins outright and the match is not a draw?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's correct - the bet is on Houston to win outright. And you have to factor in the odds you're being given. For example if it predicts Houston to win 52% of the time, if you're betting at, approx. -103, thats going to be a breakeven bet over time(Assuming my bot was 100% correct in it's assumptions). Or to make it simpler - if it predicts Red Bull to win 25% of the time, the break even bet would be +300 or 3-1 on Red Bull to win outright. (And obviously we don't want to break even [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) So it's good to go line shopping. Like as I posted above, 10/11 at Ladbrokes isn't a good bet for the Houston prediction, while I managed to get 2.12 at Betfair which was a good bet.

MrBlueNose · #47 07-05-2007, 03:39 PM

Saturdays MLS games it sees great value in the draw at Columbus, versus Real Salt Lake, predicting a draw 46% of the time(very rarely does it go above 30). Also likes over 2.5 in LA vs Kansas City(evens or better).

AAmucked · #48 07-05-2007, 03:45 PM

[ QUOTE ]
That's correct - the bet is on Houston to win outright. And you have to factor in the odds you're being given. For example if it predicts Houston to win 52% of the time, if you're betting at, approx. -103, thats going to be a breakeven bet over time(Assuming my bot was 100% correct in it's assumptions). Or to make it simpler - if it predicts Red Bull to win 25% of the time, the break even bet would be +300 or 3-1 on Red Bull to win outright. (And obviously we don't want to break even [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] ) So it's good to go line shopping. Like as I posted above, 10/11 at Ladbrokes isn't a good bet for the Houston prediction, while I managed to get 2.12 at Betfair which was a good bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I've been taking what you said here into consideration with your WNBA bets. You post predictions but don't put them into context of whether or not they are worth betting, as we have to win 55% of the time to break even with -110 juice (right?). Clearly this is a math problem but I'm not sure how to compute whether or not a one or two point edge is a +EV bet, especially with no totals knowledge on the teams and what the expected amount of scoring is (I think this matters?). I.E a one point edge on a game that has an average of 200 total points is clearly different from one with an average of 150 total points.

Help me clarify this, thanks.

MrBlueNose · #49 07-05-2007, 09:27 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I've been taking what you said here into consideration with your WNBA bets. You post predictions but don't put them into context of whether or not they are worth betting, as we have to win 55% of the time to break even with -110 juice (right?). Clearly this is a math problem but I'm not sure how to compute whether or not a one or two point edge is a +EV bet, especially with no totals knowledge on the teams and what the expected amount of scoring is (I think this matters?). I.E a one point edge on a game that has an average of 200 total points is clearly different from one with an average of 150 total points.

Help me clarify this, thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well - when I first started posting, the system I had would basically output the following data: percentage that either team wins, and the expected outcome in points. At that stage it was more just a fun little thing I was doing. In hindsight I probably should have posted the percentages(as it was discussed earlier in the thread), so people could work it out for themselves. I was also going to use it to study trends in it, and analyze what picks should be taken.

I've now worked on it more to the point that I feed it the spread from a particular sportsbooks(I generally use Pinny) and it calculates the percentage that each teams cover. Under the new system I only provide picks if it says a team will cover 60% or more of the time. By posting those, I feel it gives us enough of an edge to make it a worthy bet. As I'm posting only when it's 60%+, and it's going to be about -110 juice, these are bets that are well advised people take.

To be honest I'm ready to dump the old system, and go with the new system all the time now which I'm actually confident in being profitable(I've been going back and feeding it some data from 2006 and it's been going quite nicely). This would be more like the TomG's etc posts, where instead of every game listed I would only post when it feels we have that 60% edge. I'll have to think about i, and hopefully I answered sufficiently - I'm a bit all over the place at the moment trying to figure out the best way to track the MLS publicly, specifically for recommending bets.

MrBlueNose · #50 07-06-2007, 12:49 AM

[ QUOTE ]

Old System: Predicted scorline is Indiana to win by 3, so Los Angeles would be the pick.
[/b]

[/ QUOTE ]

Indiana win by 1 for victory. They don't come CLOSE to the O/U, and I'm going to stop posting the O/U actually because I haven't spent enough work on calculating it, and have been getting some very erratic results.

YTD:

WNBA:

Old System: 29-19 (60.4%)
New System: 1-0 (100%)

MLS picks will now be going in the MLS thread elsewhere on this forum.