Pooling of human capital for the unofficial 'Two Plus Two Portfolio'

[dazraf69]

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Anyone know how I can find the prices on the opening for last Tuesday?

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Yahoo Finance- Historical Prices.......here is the link for HAL's historical prices: http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=HAL

[john kane]

thanks for the link. do you know how i can find the index amounts?

basically i want to be able to compare the performance of this portfolio with the performance of the 'market'.

if i were a US investor, how would decide whether i had 'beat the market'. higher % than dow jones? nasdaq? sp500?

here in uk we'd compare it to ftse100, though im sure everyone know this, just thought id say its that equivalent im looking for.

[Evan]

All 3 major indices were up >3% this week.

[pologuy64]

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basically i want to be able to compare the performance of this portfolio with the performance of the 'market'.

if i were a US investor, how would decide whether i had 'beat the market'. higher % than dow jones? nasdaq? sp500?

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Can someone please go in depth on how this is done? I was wondering the same thing. Someone who knows, please explain, thanks ahead of time. lets say over a year period. 2006 for example

polo

[dazraf69]

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thanks for the link. do you know how i can find the index amounts?

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Yahoo Finance beta charts are pretty helpful. If you pick multiple indexes, it will show them in % change. Also, candlestick charts can provide you with information on performance of individual days. Performance is a relative thing, so beating the market one week does not make it a winner over the long haul. This is often the argument of individuals who are for index type funds. Take for example Haliburton last week, in one day the stock price dropped about 7% whereas the overall market during the "big crash" couple weeks ago only represented a 3% drop which for the most part has recovered most of. I mentioned before that I took the drop of HAL as an opportunity to add to my position. If you intend on trading/investing individual stocks(same thing as far as i am concerened when dealing with individual stocks) then you will need to activly take account of changes in valuation and take advantage in order to "beat" the market. Sitting back and letting it ride, will cause u more harm in the long run.

Take for example sub-prime mortgages and the crash most of the companies have taken. I stayed clear of these as I realized ( and I am no expert) that these companies were stretching themselves thin, too thin. Many people lost small or large fortunes on these companies and the comapnies in your portfolio are no different. HAL IMO provides a service that despite what the critics argue, is in need. If for some reason I felt that Haliburton was getting away from what it does best ( spinning off KBR was a sign to me that the company was refocusing on what it did best) I would sell or reduce my exposure.

Just some food for thought, I am not an expert and should not be held accountable for anything I have mentioned.Just my thoughts... [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[dazraf69]

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basically i want to be able to compare the performance of this portfolio with the performance of the 'market'.

if i were a US investor, how would decide whether i had 'beat the market'. higher % than dow jones? nasdaq? sp500?

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Can someone please go in depth on how this is done? I was wondering the same thing. Some who knows, please explain, thanks ahead of time

polo

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Here is a link for a comparison of how the major indexes did compared to HAL, you can add ur own stock to get more comparisons. The S&P is considered the indicator by which most compare their performance against. The three major indices tend to move with each other (for the most part). But again, a week or two's performance is no real indicator.

Here is the link: yahoo charts

[john kane]

end of week 2.

at the close on monday 19th march, when this began:

S&P500: 1403.20
Nasdaq:2394.41
Dow Jones: 12226.17

% change since then:
S&P500: 1420.86 = 1.01%
Nasdaq: 12354.35 = 1.01%
Dow Jones: 2421.64 = 1.01%

The portfolio has currently gained 1.75%, which is good news. 18 risers and 6 fallers

Top risers thus far:
RSC.V: 14.19%
AUN.V: 10.00%
VLO: 6.07%

Top fallers thus far:
POPEZ: 10.26%
AMSC: 4.06%
SPAN: 1.67%

Well done to missmisery for recommending the top 2 risers, very good picks. If anyone is interested, missmisery has a blog I now read to help learn about the exploration mining industy, http://resource-stocks.blogspot.com/. good stock tips so far.

If anyone thinks we should buy something now or sell any of the currently portfolio, please say.

[JacKnight21]

mismissery

devils advocate- silver prices are historically high a significant drop seems very bad for the mine while I do see that there is ample room in our estimates for some disappointmnt.

[missmisery]

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mismissery

devils advocate- silver prices are historically high a significant drop seems very bad for the mine while I do see that there is ample room in our estimates for some disappointmnt.

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Sure, silver could go down. This is always a risk when you invest in mining companies. I believe that the company would still be profitable with a lower silver price (they also have significant amount of copper,zinc and lead), but off course, my targets should be readjusted if you're bearish on silver. BTW, when I use targets (either here or in my blog), it is usually just to show the potential. If I place a 5$ target on AUN, one should never assume that it will reach this price because their way too much things that can't be predicted. For example, they may have some troubles with the mil, thus reducing the production. Finally, its the market that will decide how much Aurcana is worth 12 months from here.. not any target I mention.

While silver could go down, I would say that a vast majority of "experts" (which I'm not), are very bullish on gold/silver on the long term. If silver goes to 20$ for example like a lot of people predict, then my targets should be increased.

Basically, I like the risk/reward ratio here. I believe that there's significant upside and this is worth the risk. If the company fails to deliver, then so be it and I'll move on. I'll be the first to admit that I was wrong. I've already invested in bad companies and I'll continue to do it my whole life.

[kimchi]

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pumped approx $10K into each stock, not including fees

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John, here's a little suggestion that could help you normalise your risk. After all, I think that risk management is one of the most important aspects of investing/trading/business.

If you invest 10K into a hot biotech stock, and 10K into a lumbering blue chip, the risk will be very different. The biotech's stock can jump around 5% in a day, whereas the blue chip might stuggle to move 1% up or down.

You can normalise this risk so that more of your money is invested in less risky markets.

Calculate the average true range (ATR) for you stock. Since it appears you are investing after the close, this will be easy.

The daily True Range is the greatest of the following absolute values:
Today's high - today's low
today's high - yesterday's low
today's low - yesterday's close

Do this for the previous 3 weeks (15 trading days) and add up all the true ranges. Divide this number by 15 and you have the average true range over the last 3 weeks. If the stock has recently been volatile, you can reduce this period to 2 weeks.

This ATR takes into account overnight gaps and represents the volatility of a particular market.

If the biotech and the blue chip have a stock price of $25, but the biotech's ATR is $1, whereas the blue chip has an ATR of $0.33, then I would suggest you invest only a third as much of your money in the biotech as you would in the blue chip. (there's much more to the use of ATR than this - but you get the principal).

I'd like to suggest some more risk management strategies using position sizing and stops, and how to implement the obove suggestion more practically. They would prevent you from losing too much an an individual stock.