continuation bets losing money, how do I adjust?

[matrix]

Sounds like you are CBing the wrong types of players at the wrong times.

I continuation bet 80%+ of the time for around 2/3 - full pot size and my CB's show a profit - I get called maybe 1/3 of the time.

I still win a lot of pots that I get called on with 2nd barrels or backing into a good hand.

I CB big because I want to also play good hands fast if I'm playing half decent players they'll soon spot that I raise a smaller amount more often than I bet a Pot sized amount and call my CB's frequently. If I lower my CB size then I also need to lower my good hand bet size which means for my good hands when I'm called the pot is built less quickly.

I suggest you adjust by being really tight for the first 5 orbits and getting some reads on the people you play against. Only CB(bluff) at players you think might fold.

For the most part I need a good reason NOT to CB. For me good reasons include:

flop is garbage - and I can't represent a good hand
caller is a calling station
there are more than 2 villains
I CB'ed a lot successfully recently
caller is very tight and likely has a hand
caller seems to be aware of CB strategy and how to counter it
I have less than 6 clean outs

Check folding once in a while increases your FE for the times you do semi-bluff

[keikiwai]

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Options:

1. Stop doing them. (not a bad option)

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Bad option. Base your c-bets on # of players (the fewer the better) and texture of flop. Be more inclined to fire second barrel on drawy flops when no draws turn.

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2. Raise so you get 3-4 callers, that way you're always drawing with odds and don't need to continuation bet.


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I no understand.

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3. Don't continuation bet heads up, do it into 2-4 players. Amazingly, this works even better than heads up if you bet large enough.


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This is the opposite of what you should be doing. Yes you will take down some pots if you bet big into many people, but when you get called or raised.... ooops, there goes your stack. Reason out what hands villains are calling / raising w/.

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4. Make it larger.


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This is good. But pay attention to the texture of the board. A dry drawless board doesn't require a big c-bet.

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5. Don't do it every time you raise, it's too predictable.

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Mixing up your play is always good advice. Just make sure to do it sensibly.

[keikiwai]

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1) Don't bet too much for your continuation bets... I usually bet between 1/2 and 2/3rds of the pot. Sometimes 3/4ths. Never larger. The less you bet, the less often they need to work to be profitable.

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I often full pot my c-bets. Or even over bet if the pot is 4.75 or some silly number I'll make it an even 5. I think it gets about the same # of folds as a smaller bet, but you get paid off bigger when you hit and someone calls.....

But I don't do this always. Especially not on dry boards.

The thing about c-bets is that villain doesn't know whether you've hit or not, so you have to balance:

1) C-betting a whiffed flop... you want to lose the least.
2) C-betting a hard hit flop... you want to win the most.

If you c-bet a full pot at regular intervals, when you hit it big and c-bet a full pot you won't be telegraphing your hand. Your c-bet will look like you could have whiffed it and will be more likely to get paid off. Again it's a question of balance.

[bilbo-san]

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I posted a similar thread a few weeks ago, about my unsuccessful continuation betting system. I've developed a sort of "session strategy" since then that has been quite successful.

For the first 50 hands or so, do not continuation bet much (less than 50%). At this time, other players like to think that every flop bet from you is a steal, and you'll get lots of callers.

During these hands, show down only a few, and make sure that they are strong hands - this gives you a sort of credibility at the table.

After showing that "you only value bet", continuation betting will be at least 2x as successful, because now your opponents will have switched to the mindset of "if he's betting, he's got it!"

It's funny how you are often just placed into category A (always bluffing) or category B(bets good hands); if you can be aware of your standing in this respect, you will be much more successful in terms of these missed AK, AQ, AJ, etc...

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I think this is very bad advice. You make so much money at SSNL simply by value betting. The very last thing you want opponents to do is to always correctly fold to your made hands.

Your continuation bets are "bluffs" that are profitable in a vacuum. But what makes them REALLY +EV is that they make your made hands profitable.

That's why I think all this advice to "stop C-betting" is very bad. You are horrendously predictable if you tend to check draw-heavy boards with AK unimproved, but bet them with an overpair/top-pair.

Sometimes it frustrates me that my AK is called a lot on the 862r flop.

But then I think about all the pots I take with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] when I CB the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] flop, because the player with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] folds to my obvious A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

I'm also curious how the OP comes to the conclusion that CBs are losing him money. It sounds like a very hard datamining problem. For instance, you cannot consider the bet in a vacuum (i.e. how often bets are called and you later gave up the pot), because if you are betting 2/3 pot (for instance), you do not need to win even half of the pots for the move to be profitable.

In short, I need a lot more data (sample sizes, methods, etc) before I'm going to blanketly accept the premise that the CBs are losing money.

[mulebennett]

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5. Don't do it every time you raise, it's too predictable.

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good post, good advice