Monumental mistake by Wasicka in the ME?

[WaimanaloSlim]

What helps make this a call for me is that there are 2 outcomes that Wasicka is okay with: Gold eliminating them both, because he'll still get 2nd place money, or Binger winning the main pot and Wasicka winning the sidepot with Gold.

[jason75]

FYI - If we say that Jamie is raising all in with any A/K/Q high flush draw, any 2 pair, any OESD, any TP, any set, this is what it looks like:

Board: 6s 5s Tc
equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 56.4193 % 54.53% 01.89% { 8s7s }
Hand 2: 43.5807 % 41.69% 01.89% { KK+, TT, 66-55, ATs, As9s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsQs, KsJs, KTs, Ks9s, Ks4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, QsJs, QTs, Qs9s, Qs4s, Qs3s, Qs2s, JTs, T5s+, 87s, 73s, 6s5s, 43s, ATo, KTo, QTo, JTo, T5o+, 87o, 73o, 65o, 43o }

[jason75]

[ QUOTE ]
Here's my reconstruction of the hand:

Blinds are 200K and 400K, ante is 50K.

Gold limps from the button and Wasicka limps from the small blind.

Binger raises to 1,500,000 from the big blind. Gold and Wasicka call.

After the preflop betting, the pot is 5,850,000.

Gold's stack is now 57,800,000.
Wasicka 16,350,000.
Binger 9,000,000.

Gold's stack is effectively 16,350,000. 41,450,000 isn't at risk on this hand.

Flop is 10c-6s-5s.

Wasicka, holding 8s-7s, checks. (Some preferred betting out here, and I agree.)

Binger bets 3,500,000. He has 5,500,000 left. Pot is now 9,350,000.

Gold moves all-in to 16,350,000. Pot is now 25,700,000.

Wasicka's stack is 16,350,000. Binger is behind him with 5,500,000 left.

3-Way Main Pot: 20,350,000.
Side Pot with Gold: 10,850,000.

Difference between 3rd and 2nd: $1,979,189.
Difference between 2nd and 1st: $5,897,501.
Difference between 3rd and 1st: $7,876,690.


(If Wasicka wins a 3-way all-in - and Binger is eliminated - he would lead 47,550,000 to 41,450,000.)

The worst case scenarios for Wasicka is Binger winning the main pot, and losing the sidepot to Gold, or Binger actually folding (which I thought was unlikely since he's bet 3,500,000, has 5,500,000 left and would be getting 3.7 to 1 on the rest of it if he sent it in - the only hand that leads 3.5M and folds to 5.5M more and getting 3.7 to 1 is a bluff with no draw) and Wasicka losing to Gold in a 2-way pot.

In the end, I think risking 2M for 2M *and* 3M in equity with 8s-7s on a 10c-6s-5s flop is a fine play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Looks like we posted at the same time. If you include the stacks and pot size in there, I think this is an instacall. It's his one shot at dealing a blow to Jamie and evening the score up.

[WaimanaloSlim]

Noticed a mistake:

The main pot, in which all 3 players still have a stake, when it gets to Wasicka after Gold's all-in, is: 18,350,000.

The sidepot which Gold just started and Binger can't have a piece of is 10,850,000.

Adding:
So, in one scenario, where Binger wins the main pot and Wasickla wins the sidepot, the chip counts would be:

Gold: 41,450,000
Binger: 29,350,000
Wasicka: 21,700,000

If my math is correct (and I'm always noticing mistakes), Wasicka started out the hand with 18,300,000, so he still makes money on the hand if this scenario happens.

[pizzamanjax]

I believe that Wasicka thought he was by far the better player than Gold and possibly his fold was because if Gold took out Binger, Wasicka thought he had a reasonable chance against Gold HU even w/ a ~ 7-1 chip deficit. Very wrong thinking, but judging by some of the comments ESPN relayed, this might be the case. You can put Johnny Chan, Phil Ivey or Negreanu w/ a 7-1 deficit vs. your avg. donkey and they would lose more often then they would win

[SilverLining1]

[ QUOTE ]
When they got down to 3 handed Wasicka lays down a oesfd. Is this correct to do except in a satelite? For me this seemed like a no brainer that he should call. His best chance to make a run at Jamie was to win that hand. By my best estimates they would have been virtualy even if he wins. Worst case Jamie has the best hand and it holds up and his still finishes 2nd. Is my logic flawed. For those not familiar w/ the hand Binger has ATh, Gold has 34c, and Wasicka has 78s flop comes 5s6sTc. Binger bets out Gold moves in.

[/ QUOTE ]

Three handed I sigh and push all in, it's so goddamn automatic. As far as the $$ is concerned, I would think in terms of this: "If you fold this, yes, you may finish in 2nd, but 8 months down the line, you're still going to feel like puking for not calling and making the correct play." Boom, call.

[seke2]

Yeah...and honestly, one of the biggest and most compelling factors for why you should call is that coming in 1st in the WSOP ME has a much higher value than the actual prize. The potential for future endorsement opportunities with various poker sites, free buyins you will be offered to many future tournaments, etc. are worth a lot as well. The guy who comes in 2nd or 3rd or whatever will have much less access to those opportunities than the guy who wins.

So when you think of 1st place being worth X amount... realize that X is far higher than the just the prize itself. It really was, as the OP suggested a monumental weak/tight mistake, because if you aren't going to get it in on this flop, why are you even considering playing the hand? Other than flopping an actual straight flush, it doesn't get much better than that flop.

[IcyHotMonkey]

[ QUOTE ]

because if you aren't going to get it in on this flop, why are you even considering playing the hand? Other than flopping an actual straight flush, it doesn't get much better than that flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nicely said. Good point.

[kleath]

I agree that he should shove, but I think "monumental mistake" is an exaggeration, if he's following his read its a marginal call in cEV, so he probably made a mistake in $EV but was thinking in chips, also his ego probably came into play and he didnt need to gamble when he thought he was the better player.

[seke2]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree that he should shove, but I think "monumental mistake" is an exaggeration, if he's following his read its a marginal call in cEV, so he probably made a mistake in $EV but was thinking in chips, also his ego probably came into play and he didnt need to gamble when he thought he was the better player.

[/ QUOTE ]

Honestly, if he's the better player, he has to know that his edge in this hand is WAY too big to pass up. I'd need someone who was playing as wildly as Gold to expose their hand and show me a better FD to now get it in on that flop.