Daliman's Nfl Wong Teasers-Week 2 - Page 5

Performify · #41 09-17-2006, 08:26 PM

Should have been Packers +8 IIRC, in the tease.

I didn't like it, and you barely backdoor covered it. But congrats on the run regardless [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Skipbidder · #42 09-17-2006, 08:45 PM

I didn't like it because I'm a Packers fan (it's going to be a rough year) and I try not to bet my heart. I let myself get talked into betting it anyway, because I'm weak.

I'm not sure that you can really call it "barely backdoor" covering it. The Packers had the ball in NO territory with over 2 minutes left. They were closer to getting to overtime than they were to failing to cover the tease.

Performify · #43 09-17-2006, 09:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not sure that you can really call it "barely backdoor" covering it. The Packers had the ball in NO territory with over 2 minutes left.

[/ QUOTE ]

Saints were also up 14 with ~ 3 minutes left before the Pack scored the touchdown to pull in seven. I really saw it the other way - they were lucky to get back inside the 14. All a matter of perception, I guess.

Mostly just giving Daliman a hard time. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

Skipbidder · #44 09-17-2006, 10:01 PM

And before that GB had it tied up at 20 and the bet was looking pretty good then.

I really don't have an unbiased view of it, though, since I was cheering for one of the teams without reference to my wager. I guess your point is made, since I do feel like I was lucky to get out on the right side of the bet. I don't like being mad at my team not only for losing the game but for losing me money as well, so I'm going back to my rule about not betting them.

I've been doing this the hard way without having read Wong's book. I suppose that I'll use these threads as incentive to buy it. I've been betting these teasers for a few years now. I wasn't smart enough to round robin two-teamers, however. I was just taking 4 teamers (and a few years back 6 teamers at a site--maybe sportingbet--that offered a really good line that is long since gone). I was betting the same things that Dali was using, but I was also including college games (which I gather is unvalidated). I was also looking for one other situation. This was games that started out as 3 point lines and got moved to 2.5. I didn't move them to 8.5 but instead moved them to 3.5 the other way. Was I doing the wrong thing? It made as much logical sense to me as the two "wonging" situation that Daliman is playing.

Performify · #45 09-17-2006, 10:05 PM

Moving across zero is generally the worst tease you can do. You spend three of your tease points moving across numbers that don't matter at all, from -1 to 0 to 1. And more importantly, you're only moving across one key number, teasing from -2.5 to +3.5 - moving across +3.

As Wong writes in SSB, the value of the teasers is moving across the numbers where most of the games end up: 7 and 3.

Generally speaking, if a teaser doesn't move across both of those numbers, its generally not a good teaser to play. That's Wong's point, anyways.

Daliman · #46 09-17-2006, 10:11 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Should have been Packers +8 IIRC, in the tease.

I didn't like it, and you barely backdoor covered it. But congrats on the run regardless [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Not true. The Saints nearly backdoor UNcovered it. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

TY, but run not run unless 5-0. 4-1 is smallish profit only.

Skipbidder · #47 09-17-2006, 10:27 PM

I was considering to have moved "off" one three and past the other. For some reason, I considered that the 3 was the most important number to move off/over and that getting both of them made up for the waste of moving over the 0. (The three is more important the 7, right? Yes, yes, I'll buy the book.) I only did this when the line started out as a 3 (or was still listed as a 3 at some sites) and it moved to 2.5. I was mostly just making it up as I went along (having read the 2+2 sports betting stuff contained in gambling theory, gambling for a living, etc.) I wonder whether I was making -EV bets or not, since the other situations where you move over the 7 and 3 came up much more frequently.

sfwusc · #48 09-17-2006, 10:34 PM

You didnt move it off the 3. It was moved off the three by book. Also, when you move accross the 3 and 7 you cross the 4 which has some value.

-SFWUSC

ImBen · #49 09-17-2006, 11:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You didnt move it off the 3. It was moved off the three by book. Also, when you move accross the 3 and 7 you cross the 4 which has some value.

-SFWUSC

[/ QUOTE ]

1.5-2.5 point dogs have lost by 4 more frequently than 7 since 1993.

Ken_AA · #50 09-18-2006, 11:46 AM

sportbet.com ( I think thats the site I'm at work now and if thats not it PM and I will get back to you with it when I get home) has +100 teasers (for my small bets at least) and a 50% bonus up to 250.

So if your just betting at Mansion now you might was well move your money over and get some bonus out of it.
Ken