*Official* HSP 8/14

Everyone in this entire forum insta-calls the river if they are DN. I give DN props for even thinking about folding.

[Imrahil]

That's because most of us play against donkeys who would check raise all in on the river with a 7 in their hand lol.

[ QUOTE ]
That's because most of us play against donkeys who would check raise all in on the river with a 7 in their hand lol.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is not untrue.

[aislephive]

Only two hands beat DN legitimately, 55/99. 88 wouldn't have played the hand in this manner. 55 is quads obviously which is just super unlikely, plus it could be a bluff or maybe Gus is overplaying a smaller boat or something like T7. I don't see how DN could fold.

It may be 500bbs, but live poker always plays much bigger than online in the same limits and in uncapped NL games in general.

[nath]

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Daniel was trying to represent an overpair - everything he did in the hand was consistent with that.

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Except for betting the river; what overpair bets that river?
Likewise, Gus isn't check-raising the trip 5s or the straight on the river, and he's probably betting a lot more than 24k on the turn with trip 5s.

Now, whether or not anyone could make that fold in the heat of battle is a different question, but when Daniel makes the large river bet Gus almost certainly has 99 or 55 to c-r all in.

[SenorBeef]

Sorry, misread.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Daniel was trying to represent an overpair - everything he did in the hand was consistent with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

Except for betting the river; what overpair bets that river?
Likewise, Gus isn't check-raising the trip 5s or the straight on the river, and he's probably betting a lot more than 24k on the turn with trip 5s.

Now, whether or not anyone could make that fold in the heat of battle is a different question, but when Daniel makes the large river bet Gus almost certainly has 99 or 55 to c-r all in.

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Good post. Sums it up perfectly.

[Nielsio]

96558

Daniel's reraise preflop was very obvious. He has done this numerous times with speculative holdings. We also hear Gus saying after the hand that he wasn't all that happy on the flop (expecting possibly higher set or straight).

95 is possible although we've seen Gus play only better SC's (I'm not sure how many hands Gus has shown down though).

65 prolly not as D has 66.

88 doesn't really fit postflop play; he would probably just call flop and turn.

Now the river check-raise; Gus is never doing that with a straight, not even the nut-straight (which also doesn't fit postflop play for matter). Why? What's he expecting to get called with??

We also know that D is never value-betting the river with anything less than a straight; but also: what is D expecting a call from? I think getting a call from a straight is rare with all this pre and postflop action (as D is never doing this with an overpair, so what does he have?).

To me, a river c/r shows extreme strenght, and D should realize that G picked up on the fact that he had a big hand, or why would he expect a river-bet? (unless he's on a stone-bluff ofcourse, but that seems very dangerous after Daniel is valuebetting the river on that board after that action).

===
Board: 9c 6d 5h 5s 8c
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 75.0000 % 75.00% 00.00% { 99, 55, 95s, 65s }
Hand 2: 25.0000 % 25.00% 00.00% { 66 }
===

..where I still think that 95 and 65 would just call the river-bet, not expecting a call from a raise. Also, they would probably just bet the river.

[ElDuque]

Can check-raising the river on a board like that be +EV with any hand besides the absolute nuts? Remember, DN called fairly easily with the 4th nuts. I'd say there is at least a 50% chance he calls with the 5th nuts, which would be 5-9, 5-8 or 5-6 I believe. 8's full or 9's full is an insta-call.

Even Gus is not c/r-ing with anything less than quads in this situation.

Moreover, DN put in a value bet on the river. No way was his river bet designed to force Hansen to fold. If DN had had an overpair then he either overbets the river representing a monster (to force Hansen to fold a straight or trip fives) or checks it down figuring that Hansen gave up on the river and that he (DN) most likely has the best hand. A value bet when the pot was so huge would be far too tempting for Gus to call. Therefore, Hansen c/r-ing a value bet should signify to DN that Hansen is mother-f**king nutted.

Moreover, if Hansen has either trips, a straight or 5's full and he is putting DN on an overpair then there is no way he check-raises the river. This is value-betting time b/c DN is checking down an overpair in fear of a rivered straight or trips. Additionally, if DN is playing an overpair to the river then pocket 8's has to be a hand that he is putting hansen on. Thusly, the 8 on the river is an action killer for DN and Hansen has got to bet first to extract max value. The c/r erases the possibility that Hansen is putting DN on an overpair.

I'm not saying that it was an easy fold -- no way it was -- but, i think it is a clear fold in retrospect.

[Willy]

LOL Yea, I agree with all the guys that said this is an easy fold. We play great when we get to see the hole cards. I might even play profitably if I could see the hole cards.