whore this, ubersucker - Page 5

Ken_AA · #41 07-03-2006, 11:08 AM

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So, if this goes wrong, which it did for me at small bets, when can you walk away without screwing yourself and your fellow whores out of future bonuses? Bust your bonus and cashout? Bust you bonus and you deposit and try again another month?

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When most people talk about busting, they mean they lost the bonus and their money. Even with large bets you are still plus EV on each casino you whore, so you should still cash out more then you bust.

Now it may look like this... bust 100 bust 100 bust 100 bust 100, cash out 1K, bust 100 ect...

Ken

JackOfSpeed · #42 07-03-2006, 11:18 AM

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Without any attempt to do any sort of actual mathematics or calculations I'm going to go out on a limb and say kyleb is 100% wrong due to the fact that he is one of the dumbest f*cks on the entire forum.

That is my only possible contribution to this thread.

Good day.

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Linksys · #43 07-03-2006, 11:37 AM

Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

Linksys · #44 07-03-2006, 11:38 AM

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igger bets...hmmm. So, if this goes wrong, which it did for me at small bets, when can you walk away without screwing yourself and your fellow whores out of future bonuses? Bust your bonus and cashout? Bust you bonus and you deposit and try again another month? That could get pretty damn spendy!! Casinobonuswhores is pretty insistant on betting $1/hand but I don't think I can play that many hands!

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If you are making the minimum bet or close to it, you shouldn't be busting more than 4 or 5% of the time, max.

Ortho · #45 07-03-2006, 11:46 AM

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Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

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I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo.

Ad Alta · #46 07-03-2006, 12:49 PM

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I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo.

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With a standard deviation of 1.14, and being $192 or 19.2 bets below EV, through 160 bets, you are only 1.33 sigma off the norm.

Which is to say, yeah, it's quite common.

Linksys · #47 07-03-2006, 01:20 PM

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Just busted Omni's 100% signup bonus to 100 with 2500 WR. Had completed 1600 of the 2500 with $130 left. [censored]. Made $10 bets. Anyone wanna help me calculate RoR for that? House edge is 0.49% I believe.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm having trouble understanding. You were flat-betting $10 and you lost $200 in 1600 WR or you lost the $100 bonus in 1600 WR?

Anyway, if you lost $200 (20 units) in 1600 WR (160 bets), a rough interpolation seems to suggest that that will happen 7.5ish% of the time you play. If you lost $100 (10 units), your result is extremely common.

Eyeballing the wizard's chart is plenty accurate enough, imo.

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Ortho, I was flat betting $10 and lost all $200, the $100 deposit plus the $100 bonus, after I had wagered 2010 of the 2500. Sorry for the confusion. I was just stating that at the 1600 WR point, I had 130 left, and then proceeded to lose the remaining 130 over the next 510 in wagers. This should affect your calculation because I busted at 2010 instead of 1600, right?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm just as likely to get to $400 as I am to bust, right? That is, I have the same chance of going +200 to 400 as I do of going -200 to 0. Right? Just wanted to confirm that I'm not being an idiot betting $10 at a time.

Ortho · #48 07-03-2006, 01:42 PM

Oh, I see what you are saying. You lost 13 units in 51 wagers. The wizard's chart doesn't handle numbers that low, so I wouldn't feel comfortable interpolating, so I'll have a go at the math. Someone will correct me if I'm wrong.

StdDev=1.14, HA=.49%, 12.75 below EV, 51 trials = 1.56 sigma?

If that's right (I'm not that confident), it's still not particularly uncommon. You need to get to at least 2 sigma to start complaining, and even then you should expect to hit that about 1 out of every 20 sessions.

Linksys · #49 07-03-2006, 03:32 PM

No that's not what I'm saying. Sorry I know I'm being confusing.

I don't care about that tiny sample size. I'm wondering what the odds are, simply, of busting the casino before I clear 2050, and before I clear 2500, assuming I am making $10 bets and start with 200. Sorry for the confusion.

Ortho · #50 07-03-2006, 03:39 PM

I don't know how to calculate that exact number, but someone else here does. As a ball-park guess, I estimate that you will bust in 2050 of wagering approximately 12% of the time, and that you will bust your 20 units in 2500 of wagering about 15% of the time if that helps.

Hopefully someone will show up and give you the exact #s.