***August LC Thread*** - OMG I have this great amazing story...

[cwar]

[ QUOTE ]
so i had been using the bank transfer method in july. the first couple worked, didn't hear anything about the middle couple, and then had the last couple returned to me.

full tilt doesn't know what happened to the middle transactions (about 15k). then i got this sweet email yesterday:

--

We apologize for any inconvenience caused with these unsuccessful withdrawal attempts. We ask that you please keep in mind that this method is fairly new, and we are continuing to improve all of our player services in order to assist you as best we can. If you elect to use the ACH Withdrawal method in the future, we strongly urge all of our players to double-check your account details are correct before you confirm your withdrawal. Again, incorrect information may lead to irretrievable loss or delays in retrieving the funds.

--
the irretrievable part worries me -- how can i prove that i entered the correct info?

[/ QUOTE ]
Holy crap, make a zoo thread about this to find out if its happened to anyone else.

[higHstaKesOwneR]

and the UPSWING continues

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
2 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
SB: $98.25
Hero: $99.50

Pre-flop: (2 players) Hero is BB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
SB calls, Hero checks.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($2, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">SB bets $1</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $13</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $40</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises all-in $97.25</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($196.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $196.5)


River: 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($196.5, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $196.5)


Results:
Final pot: $196.5
Hero showed 9h Jd
SB showed 9d 8s

[ChicagoRy]

Damn that variance thread blew up.

Should have gotten somebody in the math forum to look at that, curious to see who was off and who was spot on, if any.

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
Damn that variance thread blew up.

[/ QUOTE ]
Without trying to be too extremely annoyed or bitter, or restart the flamewar in this thread, I'll just say that the last few posts in the thread should show pretty clearly that omgwtfnoway was way off.

A simple variable subsitution in his own formulas for variance and std. deviation, plugging in real values for the amount of the big blind in different situations clearly showed that.

I PMed leader, asking if I could go back and clean up all the flames to get it re-opened, or if a repost with a summary of the 6 pages minus the heat would be permissible, but haven't heard back.

I believe there's still a discussion to be had there, though, because the fact that his calculations were way off due to a simple error (or, rather a very mistaken assumption, one that was extremely easy to disprove, but that was the basis for all the math he actually did do) doesn't mean that he was wrong. Just that he couldn't come up with the math or logic to prove it.

And omgwtfnoway, if you read this, I really don't want to restart the flame war here. You obviously think I'm a complete moron. I think you made a simple mistake, and either can't see it or won't admit to it. To be honest, 6th grade algebra backs me up, but whatever. You'll either cool off, reread the last few posts, and understand your error, or you won't, but lets not re-open that can of worms here.

The issue is still very undecided in my mind, although the math that was brought in convinced me even more fully that cash is likely to be the same variance as husngs, because there just don't seem to be any good reasons for them to be different.

[ChicagoRy]

I don't have the sustained focus to read through and offer an opinion, but I know OMG felt very strongly that what he posted was correct. Beyond that, I do not know much else.

This is why I think having an unbiased third party to come in and look that thread over might help everybody involved, and yea no need for flames but I can understand you two getting carried away if you both believe you're 100% correct.

[The Yugoslavian]

Results of variance thread plz? Is it still safe to play either STT HU or cash HU without losing a house?

[img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

Yugoslav

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
but I know OMG felt very strongly that what he posted was correct.

[/ QUOTE ]
I realize this. And had he not taken a tone of superiority across the entire thread, I would have tried much harder to restrain myself from blowing up at the end when I realized where the actual point of confusion was.

But one very specific part of what he said (a part that most of the rest was based on) is *extremely* easy to prove false through a simple unit-conversion problem, even though every attempt to explain that failed miserably, probably at least partially due to my hostility. It takes an *incredibly* strong and stable person to admit they're wrong, or even look deep enough to realize that they are wrong in the first place, in the face of open hostility.

However, on my drive home, I actually think I managed to formulate a way to expose the flawed assumption in a way that is undisputable, in a very flame-free manner. I might give that a shot shortly. Even if Leader locks that thread too, at least it will be out there as a last hurrah. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[TNixon]

[ QUOTE ]
Results of variance thread plz? Is it still safe to play either STT HU or cash HU without losing a house?

[/ QUOTE ]
LOL.

No result, really. I'm still theorizing that the variance in heads-up cash is either very similar to the variance in similar-buyin sngs, or even lower than sngs (which is really where I'm leaning. If a typical "good" winrate at cash leads to a much lower hourly rate than SNGs, then either there's a tradeoff somewhere, or everybody playing cash to try to build their bankroll is a moron), but the jury is definitely still out.

[img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[Knightsridge]

what are the odds of losing these three hands for basically the match (two were for the match) of the chips in play in consecutive sngs?

AA &lt; 88
KK &lt; 99
99 &lt; 22

Thanks

[HokieGreg]

1.5%

this is standard