Absolute Soulreading/Rigged thread #3

[traxamillion]

redgrape. the chipdump session you are talking about was when he was spewing to GP and that seemed to be more of a cover up attempt to maybe buy some time. I am talking about the HU chipdumping sessions worth 100k+.

[sethypooh21]

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Too complicated, Ike.

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what part? how would you change it... etc.

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-no hand histories
-no technical jargon, that includes preflop and postflop
i.e. instead of "every single hand he got preflop"-->"every single two-card hand he was dealt"
-don't make the river call the center of the evidence, I would zero in on the most incriminating piece of evidence which is the infinite river aggression. If properly explained it is the most powerful argument.
-I would just dig right in and get more to the point, instead of using filler stuff like "one fateful night in etc".

So the structure would be something like:

-establish that you are experienced, winning player and not a crackpot
-establish that other experienced, winning players agree with you at the highest limits
-explain the Doubledrag issue in a paragraph, mentioning the 10-high call as fishy. Explain that this in itself isn't enough to indict him, but when a number of opponents pooled their hands together, they discovered...
-the river aggression which is the smoking gun of the argument. It is crucial we explain this in 2-3 sentences why it makes NO sense and no regular player could possibly be that aggressive without knowing the hole cards.
-explain other stats (number of hands played and aggression) as well as other fishy behaviour (folding for one bet, limping in always when someone had a big pocket pair in the blinds when otherwise he is raising any two cards, chip dumping, etc)
-explain what absolute has done
-explain why this is inadequate
-explain what needs to be done to clear Absolute from any wrongdoing (audit, full investigation, etc)

Fin

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Pretty much word for word what I meant. To my mind the river AF is by far the most damning piece of evidence. Something along the lines of "While a key to winning poker is not putting money into the pot when beat, doing so literally never is unheard of. Practically speaking, the only way to avoid doing so is to know what cards your opponent holds. While the very best players in the world can make very informed guesses, no one has ever demonstrated the ability to do so with such perfect accuracy over any length of time. When combined with the severe fundamental errors in the overall playing style of these players and the fact that prior to the time period in question, they were losing players over a sustained period of time playing a markedly different style..."

[McSeafield]

I would suggest the following Scenario:

1. Absloute gets a letter or an eMail from the Mods of the 2+2 forums and is requested:

a) to mandate an independent audit company like PWC to carry out an audit of this case with protective effect for all poker players, that means third-party liabilitiy of the audit company.

b) the result of this audit must be send to the 2+2 forum in writing and should be published here in this forum.

c) Absolute has to meet a certain deadline for granting this order, say 14 days.


2. If Absolute agrees with this deal, then we do not have to publish this case in the media and can wait for the outcome.

3. If Absolute does not agree, then the following sanctions will be initiated:

a) Report of this case to newspapers worldwide
b) here in this forum a new thread can be opened in which all mods propose to boycott Absolute for further play.
c) Over certain other connections we have the possibility of reaching all poker players around the world with a simular proclamation.


Believe me, this are the right actions. We had never such an extraordinary case. And if we handle it otherwise, we make a big mistake.

[pineapple888]

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Too complicated, Ike.

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what part? how would you change it... etc.

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-no hand histories
-no technical jargon, that includes preflop and postflop
i.e. instead of "every single hand he got preflop"-->"every single two-card hand he was dealt"
-don't make the river call the center of the evidence, I would zero in on the most incriminating piece of evidence which is the infinite river aggression. If properly explained it is the most powerful argument.
-I would just dig right in and get more to the point, instead of using filler stuff like "one fateful night in etc".

So the structure would be something like:

-establish that you are experienced, winning player and not a crackpot
-establish that other experienced, winning players agree with you at the highest limits
-explain the Doubledrag issue in a paragraph, mentioning the 10-high call as fishy. Explain that this in itself isn't enough to indict him, but when a number of opponents pooled their hands together, they discovered...
-the river aggression which is the smoking gun of the argument. It is crucial we explain this in 2-3 sentences why it makes NO sense and no regular player could possibly be that aggressive without knowing the hole cards.
-explain other stats (number of hands played and aggression) as well as other fishy behaviour (folding for one bet, limping in always when someone had a big pocket pair in the blinds when otherwise he is raising any two cards, chip dumping, etc)
-explain what absolute has done
-explain why this is inadequate
-explain what needs to be done to clear Absolute from any wrongdoing (audit, full investigation, etc)

Fin

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Here you go:

SECURITY FLAW AT ABSOLUTE POKER

Shortly after a recent software upgrade at Absolute Poker, several accounts with suspicious names and identical maniacal playing styles sat down at the highest-stakes games offered there, where tens of thousands of dollars change hands every hour.

The established high-stakes online players quickly noticed these "maniac" players at the tables, and lined up to get a chance to take their money.

Amazingly, the top online pros in the world all lost to these players. Every single hand.

Since these people understand poker and statistics better than you or I ever will, they used various software tools to analyze how they could have fared better against these maniacs.

All of them came to the same conclusion: the only possible way these maniacs could have won money is if they could see their opponent's cards.

Now, there have been many, many people claiming "online poker is rigged" ever since it started. And these claims have always been dismissed easily and quickly by the statistics experts.

This time was different.

The high-stakes players posted their findings on various online poker forums, and other experts who were not directly involved quickly validated their findings, and found even more evidence:

- The maniacs had been "chip dumping", intentionally losing to other accounts as a way to try to launder their ill-gotten gains
- They had finished either dead last or in first place in a whole series of large online tournaments, another hugely improbable statistical anomaly
- Just before the Absolute Poker software upgrade, a relative unknown had posted to a popular online poker forum asking whether, and how, they could make one million dollars in a single day if they could see their opponent's hole cards.

To any thinking player who has reviewed this evidence, the conclusion is clear and inescapable: Absolute Poker's server security has been compromised.

Now, this isn't a reason for anyone to conclude that "online poker is rigged" in general. This appears to be an isolated incident at a single online site (although highly unfortunate for the honest players involved who lost money). Absolute Poker has already suspended the accounts of these maniacs, and claims to be conducting a full investigation.

In the name of fairness, and to reassure the poker community about the safety of play at Absolute Poker and at other online poker sites, we call on Absolute Poker to remiburse the players who lost money to these scam artists, to publish a full analysis of the security leaks and how they have been sealed, and to commission a third-party audit of their internal security systems.

[Gildwulf]

this is much better written, but I didn't catch the river aggression thing anywhere. It needs to be front and center.

Right now it reads like "the best players in the world lost to a couple of guys-->rigged"

[jeremiah411]

All this is going to do is spread fire through out capitol hill in the united states and cause them to actually make it illegal to gamble online.

This is a double edged sword, if we don't inform the media, thus putting pressure on AP... nothing will probably happen, but if we do inform the media then we can kiss online poker for (at the very least) US residents Good Bye


I just wonder if this is somehow tied to the fact that Absolute Poker is not allowing people to deposit through add-funds (This matter happened sometime sunday night) and people are still not able to deposit via this method.

[ZOMG_RIGGED!]

I think it sounds a little to much like AP is doing something

[pineapple888]

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this is much better written, but I didn't catch the river aggression thing anywhere. It needs to be front and center.

Right now it reads like "the best players in the world lost to a couple of guys-->rigged"

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Thanks-- but the river aggression is too subtle I think, and like somebody else said, it could be "hey, that's their strategy, raise or fold, we've all heard that." I really don't see how you can get into specific PokerTracker statistics at all for anything approaching a general audience, they just have to take that part on faith.

Coming from you or me, it doesn't matter what we say. But I think an article similar to this from a well-respected poker journalist, who we convince with the detailed evidence behind-the-scenes, is the only realistic way to do this.

Although I'm far from convinced we should do this at all. But here we are.

[ClubChamp04]

Maybe throw in a few quotes from well known players of how unlikely it would be for someone to win a tournament playing nearly every hand and the significance of the river aggression stat. I think river aggression should be defined also. From PT:

Aggression Factor - this is calculated as the (raise % + bet %) / call %. Basically what it tells you is how aggressive a player is on each street. The more times they bet/raise as opposed to just calling, the higher their aggression factor will be

[jeremiah411]

Pineapple, I actually think that it would look better if we did include some technical information. Currently it does read like someone whining because they lost some money.