** The OFFICIAL NFL Mock Draft Thread **

[TheNoodleMan]

That list looks remarkably manicured.

I bet a bunch of serviceable QBs start showing up if you extend it beyond the top 10 to the entire first round and/or bumped the duration from the last 10 years to the last 15 or 20.

[PokerFink]

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I'm not sure I get the point they're trying to make.

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The point is that when you compare a QB's college stats to how successful they are in the NFL, the highest correlation is more college starts = more NFL success. It's very rare that a QB with as little experience as Russell is successful in the NFL.

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I think the problem might be throwing a guy who only has two years as a starter under his belt in immediately with no clipboard time like they did with pretty much all the guys listed.

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Which is probably what Oakland would do with Russell.

[mblax10]

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PFT is reporting that TB might trade their entire draft to Oakland for the #1 and CJ. Apparently the sum of their first day picks comes up short points-wise on the draft chart.

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I've been reading TB is offering the entire day 1 (#4, 24, 65 & 68). Either way, its a lot to be offering when you consider there's 11 more days for Oakland to auction up the price.

These last few days so many agents, GM's, coaches, scouts, etc. will be leaking all kinds of rumors like this to set smoke screens. Let the fun begin.

[Tyler Durden]

From the Redskins Insider blog on washingtonpost.com (this stuff is usually pretty accurate and always interesting):

The Lying Game

Okay, I am going to preface this by saying that this is the time of year when the NFL - land of super, double, top secrets - becomes the domain of loose lips. Everyone is lying about everything. Still, there is always a kernel of truth available out there, and here is what I heard from people today. So, with that caveat out there and this duly filed under the "slightly-more-than rumor" category, here's what I have heard:

Looks like the Skins would have to trade to first overall to get Calvin Johnson. I heard today that the Raiders will end up with Culpepper after MIA cuts him (also heard today the Fins asked the KC Chiefs for the proper sizes and specifications of Trent Green's equipment today). So the Raiders take the stud WR to replace Randy Moss - who probably goes to Green Bay - and Russell falls a bit.

Detroit loves Gaines Adams. Have visited with him three times. The coach there might see him as a reincarnation of Simeon Rice, who he coached in Tampa (although some people I talked to him see him as a situational pass rusher who is a third-down guy at the next level). They could probably trade down and still take him, and the Lions have been shopping this pick since right after the combine (when they first explored trades with the Redskins).

Cleveland is deadset on a QB (Lions might be gunshy about taking another Qb so high even if Russell is still there). Cleveland loves Quinn, but I hear the Dolphins do too, maybe even enough to trade up and get him should he still be there at 6th overall (hint, hint).

Tampa loves CJ, but could flirt with a QB, too. They might also end up trying to trade that pick if CJ and Russell are gone.

Arizona really loves the tackle, and his agent happens to be the same guy who represents the new head coach and offensive coordinator there.

So at 6 the Skins could very well have their pick of the defensive players. If they use the pick, I would be stunned if they took someone not names Landry or Okoye (both have completely wowed the team and again, I heard Landry had a killer workout Monday). After those two, Jamaal Anderson and Gaines Adamas would be the next two best options among some people out at The Park, with Calvin Johnson likely ending up the top player on the Skins overall draft board (that will be completed this week after the offensive draft meetings end this week - defense went last week, position by position).

Minn. is set on a Qb or Landry if available, I hear, and Houston will probably draft D, too.

Mia is thinking QB if possible as I said and Atlanta has fallen hard for Okoye (who played for the coach and D Line coach at Louisville) and Landry, enough so to trade up for either. Again, the Skins at 6 could be prime partners. Keep an eye on this, cause at 10, plus getting a second round pick, the Skins might find two really good players in such a trade.

[SuperUberBob]

Well, here's my 3 round mock. Kiper can kiss my ass. I'm better than him. Anyways, all the bets I made stand regardless of my changing mocks.

1. Oakland Raiders – JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU
2. Detroit Lions – Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame
3. Cleveland Browns – Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech
5. Arizona Cardinals – Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin
6. Washington Redskins – Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson
7. Minnesota Vikings – Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas
8. Atlanta Falcons – LaRon Landry, S, LSU
9. Miami Dolphins – Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville
10. Houston Texans – Levi Brown, OT, Penn State
11. San Francisco 49ers – Alan Branch, DT, Michigan
12. Buffalo Bills – Patrick Willis, ILB, Ole Miss
13. St. Louis Rams – Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska
14. Carolina Panthers – Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (FL)
15. Pittsburgh Steelers – Lawrence Timmons, OLB, Florida State
16. Green Bay Packers – Marshawn Lynch, RB, California
17. Jacksonville Jaguars – Reggie Nelson, S, Florida
18. Cincinnati Bengals – Leon Hall, CB, Michigan
19. Tennessee Titans – Ted Ginn Jr., WR, Ohio State
20. New York Giants – Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn State
21. Denver Broncos – Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida
22. Dallas Cowboys – Darelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh
23. Kansas City Chiefs – Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU
24. New England Patriots – Michael Griffith, S, Texas
25. New York Jets – Aaron Ross, CB, Texas
26. Philadelphia Eagles – Brandon Merriweather, S, Miami (FL)
27. New Orleans Saints – Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas
28. New England Patriots – Jon Beason, OLB, Miami (FL)
29. Baltimore Ravens – Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan
30. San Diego Chargers – Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee
31. Chicago Bears – Ben Grubbs, OG, Auburn
32. Indianapolis Colts – Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee

33 Oakland - Justin Blalock, OT, Texas
34 Detroit - Anthony Spencer, DE/LB, Purdue
35 Tampa Bay – Charles Johnson, DE, Georgia
36 Cleveland – DeMarcus Tyler, DT, NC State
37 Chicago - Zack Miller, TE, Arizona St
38 Arizona – Quentin Moses, DE, Georgia
39 Atlanta – Ryan Kalil, C, USC
40 Miami – Aaron Sears, OT, Tennessee
41 Minnesota – Sidney Rice, WR, South Carolina
42 San Francisco – Anthony Gonzalez, WR, Ohio State
43 Buffalo – Marcus McCauley, CB, Fresno State
44 Atlanta – Tim Crowder, DE, Texas
45 Carolina - David Harris, LB, Michigan
46 Pittsburgh – Eric Wright, CB, UNLV
47 Green Bay - Steve Smith, WR, USC
48 Jacksonville – LaMarr Woodley, DE, Michigan
49 Cincinnati – Victor Abiamiri, DE, Notre Dame
50 Tennessee – Daymeion Hughes, CB, California
51 N.Y. Giants – Eric Weddle, CB/S, Utah
52 St. Louis – Tanard Jackson, CB, Syracuse
53 Dallas – Jason Hill, WR, Washington State
54 Kansas City – Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas
55 Seattle – Ryan Harris, OT, Notre Dame
56 Denver – Quinn Pitcock, DT, Ohio State
57 Philadelphia – Rufus Alexander, OLB, Oklahoma
58 New Orleans – Turk McBride, DT, Tennessee
59 N.Y. Jets – Ray McDonald, DE, Florida
60 Miami – Craig Davis, WR, LSU
61 Baltimore – Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan State
62 San Diego - Aaron Rouse, S, Virginia Tech
63 N.Y. Jets – Ben Patrick, TE, Delaware
64 Tampa Bay – Marcus Thomas, DT, Florida

65. Oakland – Antonio Pittman, RB, Ohio State
66. Detroit – Buster Davis, ILB, Florida State
67. Cleveland – Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State
68. Tampa Bay – Josh Beekman, OG, Boston College
69. Arizona – Stewart Bradley, OLB, Nebraska
70. Denver – Brandon Siler, ILB, Florida
71. Miami – Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford
72. Minnesota - Sabby Piscatelli, S, Oregon State
73. Houston – Kenny Irons, RB, Auburn
74. Buffalo – Lorenzo Booker, RB, Florida State
75. Atlanta – Michael Bush, RB, Louisville
76. San Francisco – H.B. Blades, ILB, Pittsburgh
77. Pittsburgh - Ikaika Alama-Francis, DE, Hawaii
78. Green Bay – Scott Chandler, TE, Iowa
79. Jacksonville – Josh Wilson, CB, Maryland
80. Tennessee – Tony Hunt, RB, Penn State
81. N.Y. Giants – Brian Leonard, FB, Rutgers
82. St. Louis – Earl Everett, OLB, Florida
83. Carolina – John Wending, S, Wyoming
84. Kansas City – Jonathan Wade, CB, Tennessee
85. Seattle – Josh Gattis, S, Wake Forest
86. Denver – Aundrae Allison, WR, Eastern Carolina
87. Dallas – Michael Johnson, S, Arizona
88. New Orleans – Justin Durant, OLB, Hampton
89. N.Y. Jets – Michael Allan, TE, Whitworth
90. Philadelphia – Courtney Taylor, WR, Auburn
91. New England – Fred Bennett, CB, South Carolina
92. Buffalo – Johnnie Lee Higgins, WR, UTEP
93. San Diego – Zak DeOssie, ILB, Brown
94. Chicago – Tim Shaw, OLB, Penn State
95. Indianapolis – Brandon Mebane, DT, California
96. San Diego (comp) – David Irons, CB, Auburn
97. San Francisco (comp) – Stephen Nicholas, OLB, South Florida
98. Indianapolis (comp) – Dan Bazuin, DE, Central Michigan
99. Oakland (comp) – Paul Williams, WR, Fresno State

If anybody can link me to Kiper's day one mock, I'd like it. I'm not an ESPN Insider.

[tolbiny]

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Cleveland is deadset on a QB (Lions might be gunshy about taking another Qb so high even if Russell is still there). Cleveland loves Quinn, but I hear the Dolphins do too, maybe even enough to trade up and get him should he still be there at 6th overall (hint, hint).

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I think i might finally be done watching the Browns if the draft Quinn. Something about him really turns me off, but mostly because every year they talk about getting a good o-line together, only to fail. Signing one big ticket guy isn't enough to fix the crap they put out there last year and if they can't recognize that Thomas will be an immediate impact player for their team on Offense (and field position for defense) I'm just going to be sick. If they draft Peterson i am boycotting the season opener because of their stupidity.

[SuperUberBob]

EDIT: GAH! I forgot to include Dwayne Jarrett in my mock. He definitely goes to either Minnesota or San Francisco!

Kiper's mocks normally represent what will the picks be rather than what they should be. Mine projects more about who will be the best pick for that team rather than who will actually be picked.

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6.WAS-Laron Landry, S, LSU-Jamal Anderson, Amobi Okoye & Alan Branch all still on the board and the skins don't take a D-Linemen?

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Yes. After Gaines Adams, LaRon is the best defensive player available. In my opinion, I do think Gaines drops to Washington if Detroit is unable to trade out of the #2 slot and Washington takes Adams (I cannot see Detroit using the #2 pick for Adams).

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15.PIT-Lawerence Timmons, LB, Florida St-One of the more overated players in the draft. He's too small.

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I agree with this pick. With Timmons, you're drafting for potential more than what you see now. Timmons will either boom and be a great NFL linebacker or he'll bust and be a nobody. Pittsburgh really needs to replace Joey Porter.

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17.JAX-Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida-The 2 guys the Jags would love to see fall; Reggie Nelson and Jamal Anderson are still on the board and the Jags pass on both?

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Kiper is on crack if he thinks that the Jaguars pass on Reggie Nelson.

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21.DEN-Jamal Anderson, DE, Arkansas-I've seen him slipping in a few other mocks, Anderson easily makes my top 10 prospect's list.

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Jamaal is slipping a bit, but he's still the second best defensive end in the draft. He sure as hell won't slip this far. I'll be surprised if he gets past St. Louis.

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26.PHI-Reggie Nelson, S, Florida-Like I said earlier Mel dosen't like Nelson at all. I don't know why, not only will he be a great FS, I still think he can be a starting CB.

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Philly needs a safety, but Landry, Nelson and Griffin will be gone by the time the Eagles are on the clock. They'll likely take Brandon Merriweather, who is capable enough to play cornerback and safety.

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31.CHI-Steve Smith, WR, USC-If the Bears take a WR not named Calvin Johnson in the 1st, I'll be sick. Jason Hill, Sidney Rice, Anthony Gonzalez & Craig Davis are all still on the board. Surley one of those guys with similar value to Smith will be on the board at #37 to fill the Bears 5th biggest need.

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If the Bears pass on Ben Grubbs/Justin Blalock, I'll be stunned. They're definitely going for O-line first round.

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33.OAK-Tony Ugoh, OT, Arkansas-First of many guys I think Mel has vastly overated.

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I agree. Oakland must go O-line with their second round pick. But I think it's more likely that they'll get somebody like Aaron Sears or Justin Blalock.

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34.DET-Trent Edwards, QB, Stanford-Lions reach for a QB in the 2nd who's a pretty big gamble? Not like they have that many needs or have made it clear they love Drew Stanton.

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Detroit needs a QB, but if they don't get Quinn or Russell, they better wait until at least the third round. Edwards and Troy Smith will be available then. If Detroit does go with Adams, as Kiper suggests, they'll probably end up picking a cornerback such as Marcus McCauley or even trade down their second round pick and get a similar player later in the round.

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35.TB-Tim Crowder, DE, Texas-Wow, I didn't think he had first day value.

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He does, but only because the good defensive ends will be gone in a flash. I have Crowder going 44th to Atlanta and I have TB taking Charles Johnson instead.

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49.CIN-Paul Soliai, DT, Utah-Bengals drafting a guy with charecter issues, love it.

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If Tank Tyler isn't available for their pick, they probably won't go DT because there isn't a DT after Tyler worth their pick. Maybe Quinn Pitcock is, but I think he goes later.

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54.KC-Justin Blalock, G/T, Texas-This is one of 3 guys (Joe Staley & Greg Olsen) who I hope somehow falls to the Bears at #31. Surviving till the middle of the second round is a little ridicolous.

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Staley and Olsen definitely do *not* fall to #31. I can't see the Panthers passing up on Olsen and Staley will likely be picked by either the Giants or Ravens (most likely the latter). Blalock will, but the Bears are pretty high on Ben Grubbs.

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56.DEN-Tanard Jackson, S/CB, Syracuse-Kipper must love the Broncos because Jackson at 56 is another steal.

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I got Tanard going to St. Louis with the 52nd pick. I think Denver goes to the defensive line again since all of the second round worthy CBs are no longer available.

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57.PHI-Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan St-Stanton has good value here but the Eagles already have 3 QB's and an unsigned Koy Detmer.

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The Eagles need a backup QB, but not this early in the draft. They have more pressing needs at linebacker, safety, wide receiver and cornerback. I can't see them taking a QB before the fourth round.

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60.MIA-John Beck, QB, BYU-Don't think I've mentioned yet, so I'll do it here, John Beck is awesome. Solid arm, played in a pro offense, great pocket presence and toughness, can scramble. I think he's the #3 QB, only knock is he's already 26 years old because of a mormon mission.

[/ QUOTE ]

Same as the Eagles. Another team in need of a QB, but it's too early to take one. Beck is a 4th/5th round pick.

It's obvious that Kiper massively overvalues QBs in this draft. Aside from Russell, Quinn and maybe Stanton, every other one will be journeyman backup QB at best.

[PokerFink]

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57.PHI-Drew Stanton, QB, Michigan St-Stanton has good value here but the Eagles already have 3 QB's and an unsigned Koy Detmer.

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The Eagles need a backup QB, but not this early in the draft. They have more pressing needs at linebacker, safety, wide receiver and cornerback. I can't see them taking a QB before the fourth round.

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The Eagles are completely set at QB with McNabb, Feeley and Holcomb. If the Eagles even draft a QB at all it will be a late round pick for their practice squad (something Reid has done before).

[Spellmen]

I can't imagine the Eagles even thinking about a QB unless they were ridiculously high on one of the guys thinking he was the next Brady. Feeley and Holcomb are decent to good backups. It would be nice to have someone a little better since it's possible McNabb is coming off injury, but Feeley has proven he can play in the system and their supporting cast around him should help (if he keeps the #2 spot that is). The Eagles have much bigger needs at LB, WR, and getting depth at safety to waste a first or even second day pick on a QB they aren't sure of when they have McNabb.

Also, if the 49ers take Jarrett in the first I will cry (or even Ginn who I like a little better)

Edit - Does anyone know what the 49ers got for Barlow? I only ask because I was in SF for a school trip and saw a toothless bum with a Barlow jersey and couldn't help but give him a few bucks. It made me realize the Jets could have given them that guy and the trade would have been good [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[brettbrettr]

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dit - Does anyone know what the 49ers got for Barlow?

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It was a 4th.